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Day 262 severe weather watch: Tropical storm Roke aims for Japan

Dave Britton – Met Office | 17:00 UK time, Monday, 19 September 2011

Distance travelled ~ 673'323'200 km

UK and world weather report

Last week brought typically varied conditions over the UK and while around the world tropical cyclones continued to dominate the headlines.

In the UK the week got off to a stormy start as post-tropical storm Katia made her presence felt particularly across the northern half of the UK. As forecast by the Met Office, a deep area of low pressure which contained post-tropical storm Katia reached the UK on Monday, bringing severe gales and heavy rain to Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland. Scotland and Northern Ireland bore the brunt of the storm, with widespread wind speeds of 60 - 70 mph and gusts of up to 98 mph in the most exposed mountainous areas. There was also heavy rain in parts of Scotland, which resulted in localised flooding in some areas of Central Scotland.

As post tropical storm Katia moved away and winds gradually eased we were left with a rather unsettled and autumnal feel to our weather. It remained breezy with further outbreaks of showery rain and blustery winds in the west, whilst further south and east there were brighter spells. The autumnal feel continued with temperatures falling into single figures overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures fell as low as 1.7 Celsius at Topcliffe and Exeter airport, and 0.8 Celsius at Redesdale camp.

Across the world flooding continued to dominate the weather - Pakistan's commercial capital, Karachi, has been paralysed by floods as torrential rain continues to lash southern Sindh province. Schools have shut down, many markets were forced to close and commuters had to abandon their vehicles as rain water flooded the streets.

The floods have come at a time when many parts of South Asia expect heavy rainfall as part of the region's summer monsoon, but it has been particularly heavy for the affected areas and it has come late in the season. Observations show there has been a series of low pressure systems passing over Pakistan from northern India over the past two weeks, with little respite in between. This has given no time for water to flow away or seep into the ground, causing a build up of floodwater.

The week ahead
• In the UK, we will see another mixed week with rain across southern parts of the UK through the first part of the week. Once this clears away midweek A northwest-southeast split developing, with the northwest often rather cool and breezy with showers and sunny spells. Further southeast, it should be mainly dry but rather cloudy, with nearer-normal temperatures.

• An intense NE Pacific storm looks set to bring a spell,of very wet and windy weather to NW parts of N America from Tuesday, peaking in intensity on Wednesday.

• Turning very unsettled over much of western Europe and the central Mediterranean.

• Colder than normal in parts of southern Chile and Argentina by mid-week as Antarctic air streams northwards. Risk of frost and snow over the higher ground.

Sonca stays in the Pacific but all eyes on Tropical Storm Roke
Tropical Storm Sonca is expected to turn north and track close to eastern Japan today before turning away east as it becomes absorbed into the mid-latitudes. The track should stay far enough E not to have significant impact over Japan.

Tropical Storm is potentially more dangerous. The track over the next few days brings it into the area between southern Japan and Taiwan. There is a strong signal for the track to then turn north and NE across the length of Japan later in the
week.

forecast track storm roke and sonca

Image courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency

satellite image tropical storm roke

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