According to the polls - it's all over
British politics is on hold today as the political and media elite becomes more mesmerised than ever with across the pond.
According to the polls, it's all over -- not just the national polls, which give Obama a 7-point lead, but the more significant polls in the crucial battleground states. For example, Obama leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states that McCain has to win if he is to take the White House, by 7 to 10 points respectively.
And yet, and yet ... The polls were equally clear about Obama before the Democrats at the start of the year -- but Hillary Clinton lived to fight another day. The pollsters assure us that this week's polls are more accurate (New Hampshire voters were in a particularly volatile and unpredictable mood) but then they would, wouldn't they?
Add to that the McCain camps' claim that the race is tightening in the last days (though hard evidence for that is sparse) and you can see why, though almost the whole US political establishment is assuming an Obama victory, not many are yet ready to shout it openly.
We'll know as this day ends anyway. Just after midnight UK time, the US networks will call Virginia, based on pretty accurate exit polls. If it goes for Obama, then it will effectively be all over; if it goes McCain's way then we could be in for a long night. An hour or so later we'll know who's won Ohio and Pennsylvania: an Obama victory in both means it really will be all over for McCain; but if the Republican holds on to both then he could be in the process of "pulling a Truman" (i.e. winning against all the odds, as Democrat Harry Truman did in 1948).
Today we'll have a last look at the poll and talk to Tony Blair's former Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell, who knows America well. 
Laura Kuenssberg will be telling us why, whatever the result, the shape of American politics has changed, and we'll be talking to her live from New York.
We'll be giving you the result of our own Presidential poll --- yes, today we reveal the winner of your favourite post-war US President. Who can it be?
Throughout the programme we'll be talking to the political sketch-writer, Quentin Letts. His recent book naming 50 people who (he thinks) have messed up Britain names Margaret Thatcher as one. Not because he doesn't like her - he just thinks she stuffed the Tory chances in the North because of the miners strike. We'll be asking if that analysis is fair.
And ahead of that other important poll this week on this side of the Atlantic, the Glenrothes by-election in Fife, we'll be talking to the Liberal Democrat's campaign co-ordinator Danny Alexander. All that on the Daily Politics here on Ö÷²¥´óÐã2 at Noon today.
And don't forget tomorrow we will come live from London and New York, starting 11.30am, with all the latest on the morning after the night before!
Comments
or to comment.