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We have posted several blogs on the future of RAF Marham. This week the Ö÷²¥´óÐã Politics Show visited RAF Lossiemouth, the other base for Tornadoes which is also fighting for survival, and it's worth reporting the view from Scotland.

Conventional wisdom at the moment is that Marham is probably safe.

The armed forces minister said as much during a recent visit to the Moray Firth. In his opinion moving the Tornadoes' engineering base from Marham to Scotland would be "prohibitively expensive" and it was now a battle for survival between Lossiemouth and another Scottish air base, RAF Leuchars.

But the Lossiemouth campaigners are not giving up and there do appear to be several strong arguments in its favour.

The first is a strategic one. Once RAF Kinloss closes, Scotland will be down to just two air bases.

"Just about everything else is in the south of England," says Angus Robertson, the local MP and the SNP's defence spokesman.

"I fail to see the logic in that when it comes to the wider defence of the United Kingdom. Surely you don't put all your eggs in one basket?"

"I thought we were supposed to be defending the whole of the United Kingdom," says John Divers, a local Labour councillor. "People are starting to wonder if the government is only concerned about defending the south."

The other strong argument in Lossiemouth's favour concerns the latest rumour that's doing the rounds. It's being reported that the Army, who the Government were considering putting in Lossiemouth if the RAF moved, doesn't want to go to Scotland.

Several well-placed sources have told us that Army chiefs have told the Ministry of Defence that Scotland is much too far away from its training grounds, most of which are in the south.

They would much prefer to be at Marham just an hour away from the Stanta training area in Thetford Forest.

"It then begs questions about where the RAF trains," says Mr Divers. "Their bombing ranges are in the north of Scotland, the glens which they fly through while practising for Afghanistan are in the north of Scotland. Why have the expense of flying all the way from Marham when it's five minutes from here?"

And then there is the economic argument. The Moray Firth is very dependent on the military. It brings in £90m to the Lossiemouth economy every year and supports more than 3,000 jobs.

Only this week a new report said income levels in the area were lower than any other part of Scotland (£395 a week, compared to £560 in the central belt).

And there's a political argument. "If the coalition closes another air base in Scotland, it will show that the government doesn't give a damn about Scotland," says Mr Roberston, whose party wants complete independence.

Mr Drivers says David Cameron is supposed to be a supporter of the Union. "This is just giving ammunition to those who want to end it."

They are all arguments which make campaigners at Lossiemouth believe there is a still a strong chance of keeping the RAF on the Moray Firth. But if Lossiemouth wins its argument, will it have any effect on Marham's future?

Could the Tornadoes stay at both Marham AND Lossiemouth? When the stategic review came out last autumn, the government seemed to suggest that it wanted all the Tornadoes in one place.

Marham campaigners say all this shows why they're taking nothing for granted, they will keep on pushing the economic case for retaining the Norfolk base whenever they get the chance.

Now it seems there's no prospect of an early decision. The latest we've heard is that it won't be made until the summer recess.

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