Showdown at PMQs
Who's fallen into whose trap?
David Cameron's question today was set as a trap. He invited Tony Blair to confirm that all the most controversial parts of his education White Paper would survive when the legislation itself is published. If Mr Blair said "yes" then he could not back down. If he said "no" then he would be caught doing it. Tony Blair said "yes". But then he responded with a trap of his own. Would Cameron give his support to the bill because, if so, he'd welcome it. Yes, said Mr Cameron.
My guess is that Tony Blair's calculation is that the Tories will hate the idea that their votes may save the government from defeat so much so that DC is forced to change his mind - confirming Labour's allegations that he's always chopping and changing. If he sticks to his guns, DC may split and demotivate his party.
TB's other gamble, I supect, is that the public, and even many in his party, are much too confused by his proposals to be able to judge whether he has or hasn't backed down from what he originally said he'd do. Thus he will be able to compromise while claiming he's not moved at all.
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Comments
TB is too experienced to fall into a trap like that but i agree about your view on his intentions. his view seems to be to be a bit longer than most commentators give him credit for but i do suspect that for all of his potential he will not be able to achieve anything as radical as he would like given the opposition of his own party.
Would be interested to know Nick's thoughts on the Lib Dems. One former candidate has today announced he has switched to the Tories and, more interestingly, hinted that three present MPs are planning to also make the switch. It seems to me that the Lib Dems are two very different parties, one Simon Hughes left wing type party which believes in high taxes and the other the Orange book economic liberals. I don't see how the two diverging views can be reconciled. Are these rumoured defections and the plummeting opinion poll ratings the beginning of the end for the party? There must be a risk that the party will splinter. Put it this way, if the Lib Dems, in their current ideological paradox did not exist, would anyone invent them?
The big question Nick - Was Gordon smiling this week?!
If so why?
If not why not?
Good for Tony - what a great politician. I think the Tories are hiding under a "public spirited" cloak. I would never trust them after what they did when they were in. They only care about money and the rich deep down and don't know what it is like to struggle.
I think Cameron will back Blair all the way on this, rather than change his mind at the last minute. Labour rebels are deeply opposed to this legislation, and there are enough to bring it down. However, if the legislation is passed with Tory votes, that will incense them and they'll be gunning for Blair.
The trap may not be as dangerous for DC as it is for TB. Don't forget that DC has to convince the public that he is willing and able to change his party so he won't mind having the occasional fight with the "backward looking Tories" early on in his tenure. He is spending his credit with his party now in the hopes that it will pay off handsomely with the public in the future, come election time.
TB on the other hand is all but bankrupt now. And I think this could very well be the showdown that sets the departure timetable.
Some of DC's statements have left his backbenchers a little dismayed, this can be measured by their "sounds of silence". True they are not silent all the time they can manage a cheer at the scripted adlibs when they are delivered in the house, but there unease is measurable. They now seem to sit, not knowing what DC is going to say next, their gasps and silences the giveaway. DC, it would seem keeps his council close to his chest as "his" thoughts are delivered to TB and many of his backbenchers for the first time. I am unsure whether he has the majority of his Westminster party onside; sounding these individuals would bring the expected responses, the division lobby I feel will render some unexpected results.
Cameron doesn't seem to realise that Tony Blair has been evading these 'traps' for over 8 years and although his time may come he is continually being caught out himself. Alrite sir!
I am very surprised that Nick's blog didnt even mention the most brilliant and cutting remark from David Cameron, which was... "Tony Blair came into politics wanting to soak the rich and ban the bomb ... but has spent his time as premier "sucking up to the rich and dropping bombs".
This sums up Tony Blair to a tee, and it clearly wounded Mr blair"
Lets have more of it Mr Cameron ! and Nick, ur slipping if you missed this!
What do you think of the theory that Tony Blair released the Whale into the River Thames to deflect the public's attention from Ruth Kelly?
Do you think TB is delaying the cabinet reshuffle till after the education vote? ?If he wins he can use the reshuffle to start afresh as a newly reinvigorated PM.If he loses he wont be PM anymnore and Gordon will be doing the reshuffling.I can only assume this is what Blair is going to do as there is no other logical explanation why hes delayed it this long