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Here in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, Bill Foggitt was something of a legend. An amateur weatherman famed for predicting weather conditions based on, amongst other things, pine cones and frog spawn, Bill had quite a following. He used to delight his followers each Spring by claiming the summer was going to be a heatwave; and when invariably it turned out to be, once again, a typical British summer, people tended to forget the prediction he had made in the first place!

Not so these days. The Met Office may forever be associated with its 'barbeque summer' forecast - which, without the headline, would have in all likelihood passed off with very little fuss, like in the days of Bill Foggitt.

So it was with interest when I saw private forecasting company Positive Weather Solutions featuring heavily in the press last month, with headlines of a long hot summer, with a chance of a new record, beating the current hottest ever temperature, recorded in Faversham, Kent, in 2003, of over 38C.

Interestingly, a look at shows a forecast that bears little resemblance to newspaper headlines at the time, although they do suggest record breaking temperatures in August are possible.

So what are the chances of such a scorching summer? I thought it was time I put my money where my mouth was and have a look to see if there are any clues as to what lies ahead.

Firstly, to an argument I have heard many times. Summers following an El Nino are good.

Looking back at the last 3 El Nino summers of 1998, 2003 and 2007 gives a very mixed picture. 2003 was a very warm summer, with a new temperature record established. But although April 2007 was the warmest on record, the summer that followed was poor, with serious flooding during widespread heavy rain which affected much of Yorkshire. Summer temperatures were close to average in 2007; identical in fact to summer temperatures in 1998, according to CET (Central England temperature) data.

So an El Nino does not seem to be a reliable indicator of summer conditions in the UK.

I then looked to see if there were any conclusions to be drawn from our very cold winter. What happened in the past, when winters across the UK were cold? I looked back over the last 70 years.

What I found was very interesting. It turns out that on very few occasions were cold winters followed by warm summers; in fact the vast majority of summers, over 90%, ended up with average or below average temperatures, following a cold winter.

And what about solar considerations?

The poor summers of 2007, 2008 and 2009 have all coincided with the protracted solar minimum that we are only now recovering from. Although activity is now picking up, it remains at a very low level (as measured by the number of sunspots).

Latest research suggests that the position of the jet stream is affected, at least to some extent, by solar activity, and low solar activity this summer could mean the jet stream is again on average further south than normal. This would not bode well for this summer.

This thinking is confirmed by Piers Corbyn, from Weather Action. He accurately predicted our prolonged cold winter, and last summers washout, and bases his forecasts on the way solar activity influences our atmosphere.

I spoke to him last week, and he is confident that this summer, because amongst other things solar activity is likely to be low, will not be a 'barbeque summer'. And there's no chance, he says, of breaking the current UK record for heat. will be publishing a more detailed summer forecast in the next few weeks.

I don't pretend to be any expert in long range forecasting. But it would seem that there are enough clues out there to suggest what our summer might be like. It won't please the tabloid headline writers with an eye for a sensational headline, but here is my forecast.

Summer 2010: An average British summer, with some spells of fine warm weather, but with its fair share of cooler unsettled spells too.

And to those hoping for a long hot summer, like in 1976 or 1995, I say this. Don't hold your breath!

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It's another very frustrating day for airlines and passengers alike. As suggested on yesterday evening's update, the clearance across parts of the UK's airspace is proving to be very short lived, with more ash now pushing south-eastwards from Iceland across the UK.

The Met Office has confirmed by observation the extent of atmospheric ash, with balloon observations showing a 600 metre deep ash cloud at an altitude of 4km across parts of the UK. Despite several airlines reporting no problems during test flights, NATO F-16 fighter jets have reported engine damage when flying through the volcanic ash.

The latest projections, shown below, issued by the Met Office, show virtually all of the UK except the Northeast of Scotland contaminated by ash at 7am Wednesday morning.

Upper winds are forecast to continue to blow from the Northwest for the rest of this week, indicating further plumes of volcanic ash heading towards the UK from time to time. Although further clearances are possible, the only significant prolonged clearance across UK airspace will not be until the weekend, when the wind switches to a West or Southwest direction.

It's likely to be a very frustrating week for all involved.

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UPDATE at 6.40PM Monday Evening

Latest charts for 1pm tomorrow afternoon show the clearance continuing to move south-eastwards at that time, with areas from the Midlands northwards in the clear. However the next plume of ash (seen on the satellite picture at the bottom of this blog) is pushing back in from the Northwest, covering the Irish sea, Western Scotland and much of Ireland by that time, suggesting that any lifting of air space restrictions in the morning could be short lived.

Volcano Update 3: Mon 19th April 2pm

Latest forecast charts issued by the Met Office this afternoon for 7am Tuesday morning show a clearance coming in across much of Scotland, but with England, Wales and much of Ireland still affected. This could mean Scottish airspace is reopened first thing tomorrow, although the relevant authorities will be making a decision shortly.

Looking at the wind streamline diagram below for tomorrow, which essentially shows the direction of the wind at around 20,000ft, shows that this clearance could make further progress south-eastwards across England. But any new ash from the Icelandic volcano is likely to be blown back towards the UK, leaving any window possibly short lived. No significant change to this upper level wind direction is expected until next weekend.

Reports this morning from the Icelandic Met Office indicate that the volcano is active this morning, spewing more ash into the atmosphere. This can be seen clearly on this morning's satellite picture, a red plume leaving the Icelandic coast.

And some beautiful volcanic sunsets to share with you from this weekend

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RECENT UPDATES TO ORIGINAL BLOG CAN BE FOUND AT THE BOTTOM OF THE ARTICLE

The frustrating news for those wanting to fly is that according to the very latest forecast, issued in the last 15 minutes, much of England still has ash at around 20,000 ft at 7am tomorrow morning. However, the projection below though shows a definite clearance through Scotland and Ireland with parts of the North of England starting to see a clearance too.

Although ash projections further ahead are not produced by the Met Office, upper level wind forecasts still indicate that an improvement across the country is likely through Saturday, but with potential ash problems should the volcano still be active later on Sunday and into Monday.

It's also worth pointing out that even if the UK sees a clearance through Saturday, there are still large parts of Central and Northern Europe that may still be affected by ash, with obvious potential knock on effects for flight paths crossing these areas.

On a brighter note, for those lucky enough to have clear skies this morning, there's been some vivid 'volcanic' sunrises across our area.

With clearing skies tonight, this evening's sunset could be spectacular

UPDATE 7pm Friday 16th April

Latest update just to hand indicates for 1pm tomorrow much of Northern England in the clear, along with Ireland and Scotland, but the rest of the UK and much of central and Northern Europe still affected by volcanic ash - overall very little change.

Jet2.com's decision to cancel all flights tomorrow is understandable. Although some of the airports it operates from in the North of England may be in the clear during tomorrow, most of their planes would have flight paths through the ash across Continental Europe. It's an indication that disruption may continue into next week for many of the UK's airlines.

Upper level wind forecasts remain the same, with North or North-westerly winds becoming re-established at 20,000ft later on Sunday, so if the volcano continues to be active there's a risk of fresh ash into early next week.

UPDATE at 8am, Saturday 17th April

Latest projections, taking us to 1am Sunday morning again show very little change in the overall position of the plume at 20,000ft. If anything, the plume is seen creeping back northwards towards the Scottish border - and it now covers more of Europe, sinking into parts of the northern Mediterranean. (Sorry for no diagram but I am updating this from home and can't reproduce it)

UPDATE 1pm Saturday 17th April

New projections just in show all of UK and Ireland airspace with ash at 20,000ft at 7am Sunday morning, with the current window of clear air across Scotland and Ireland contaminated by ash again by that time. This implies air space that is currently closed will remain closed until at least 7am on Sunday, with Ireland and Scotland likely to see their airpace closed to aircraft once more - it also suggests there may not be much change through much of Sunday either.

Upper wind forecasts still show if the Iceland volcano continues to erupt, fresh ash could be dragged across the UK through next week.

UPDATE At 7pm Saturday 17th April

Latest forecast shows virtually no change up until and including 1pm Sunday afternoon, with all of the UK and Ireland's airspace affected by ash - together with nearly all continental Europe, with the exception of Mediterranean countries. The plume also now affects areas to the West of Ireland, well into Mid Atlantic.

UPDATE AT 7.15PM ON SUNDAY 18TH APRIL.

Forecast just issued by the Met Office for 1pm Monday afternoon shows all of UK airspace still contaminated by volcanic ash, with very little overall movement. The areas affected do seem to be getting slightly smaller but there is still a wide area surrounding the UK that is affected. The Meditteranean, Spain and Portugal are clear.

Upper level winds into next week are still likely to be Northwesterly, bringing a risk that any fresh volcanic ash could spread Southeastwards towards the UK.

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The Icelandic Volcanic eruption is causing much disruption to air travellers across the UK this afternoon. The huge plume of ash is being steered by winds high up in the atmosphere across the UK posing a potential risk to airliners.

In 1989, a KLM Royal Dutch Airlines Boeing 747 flew into an ash cloud from Alaska's Redoubt volcano and lost all power, dropping from 25,000 feet to 12,000 feet (7,500 meters to 3,600) before the crew could get the engines restarted. The plane landed safely.

So it's not surprising that the authorities have grounded flights this afternoon. And with meteorological conditions unlikely to change much in the next few hours, there must be a risk of further disruption to flights tonight and into tomorrow.

The diagram below shows projections for the volcanic plume at midnight tonight - the red line indicates the 20,000ft flight level - showing that large parts of the UK are still expected to have ash in the higher atmosphere which could affect flights in and out of the UK.

But those worried about the risk of air pollution should be reassured. The ash is so high in the atmosphere, and with settled weather conditions at the moment, experts say it is unlikely that any of the ash will transfer to the ground, so an impact on the air we breathe is not expected in the next few days.

UPDATE AT 3PM

Latest projections show no real change to position of volcanic ash at 7am Friday morning, all non emergency flights as a result of this have been grounded at least until this time. See new projection below.

It's a shame that skies are likely to be too cloudy across Yorkshire this evening to witness what could be a spectacular sunset, as the ash high in the atmosphere scatters light to the red end of the visible spectrum. We may be luckier tomorrow with some cloud breaks by dawn leading potentially to a dramatic sunrise for some places.

UPDATE 7.30pm

An update for you on the volcanic ash affecting UK flights. The latest projection for tomorrow again shows very little change across the UK, with volcanic ash at 20,000ft across much of the UK. This would suggest that it's unlikely that there will be any flights before 1pm tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, but a decision will be made shortly by the relevant authorities.

Looking further ahead, winds aloft increase and turn more westerly for Saturday, giving a better chance of dispersal. But if the volcano is still erupting on Sunday and Monday, winds switch back to a direction which may threaten the UK with more upper level ash.

Contrary to earlier indications, there are now some reports of ash being deposited in the Shetland Islands, with people apparently experiencing a bitter taste. This means that some surface deposition is taking place and it is conceivable that a very slight deposit of some ash is possible in the morning.

UPDATE at 8am Friday 16th April

Latest projections still indicate ash at 20,000 ft across England and Wales at 1am Saturday morning, although a clearance is seen across Ireland and Scotland by that time. Flight disruption across England and Wales consequently unlikely to ease until at least that time, although the relevent authorities will be making an official decision shortly.

Upper level winds still indicate a Westerly developing on saturday, giving the hope of a general clearance developing on saturday; but the risk remains that if the volcano is still erupting on Sunday and early next week, ash could return as the upper level winds switch back to the North or Northwest.

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