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UPDATE at 1200 Fri 9th July

The last paragraph of my latest blog seems to have aroused interest so for clarification this may be of interest.

I spoke to various people in climate science when I put together my article 'global temperature predictions for 2010'. One prominent climate sceptic told me that there was no chance of 2010 being warmer globally than 1998 because of solar considerations. 1998, from a solar point of view, 'was a coming together of many things' he said, that would not be replicated possibly 'for another 100 years'. He went on to admit that if 2010 was hotter than 1998, he may have to re-examine his theory that it was the sun that was the main driver of global temperatures.

ENDS

There's been some hot weather across some parts of Europe and America in the last few days.

The eastern US and parts of Canada are in the grip of a heatwave with soaring temperatures are affecting areas from Quebec to Virginia; the mercury hitting 39.5C (103F) in some places. Power cuts have occurred as energy usage soars, leaving thousands of households without power

Eumetnet, the public European weather services network within the World Meteorological Organization, has issued severe hot weather warnings for most of Spain, the western half of Germany, most of Belgium and parts of the Netherlands.

Temperatures in Berlin are expected remain at highs of 35-36 degrees Celsius until Monday, before cooling slightly in the middle of next week, according Germany's national forecaster, while Madrid is melting at highs of 40 degrees on Thursday, according to Spain's official forecaster, with highs of over 34 degrees into next week.

Here in the UK, the Met Office warned there was a 60% chance that somewhere in the Southeast could reach 32C for the first time this year.

From a global perspective, temperatures have been close to record levels in the first 6 months of the year.

The graph below shows that temperatures seem to have peaked very close to the values reached during the hottest year on record set in 1998.

In the first 6 months of this year, average global temperature anomalies according to satellite data were 0.565C above normal, compared with the first 6 months of 1998, when the figure was 0.64C.

The difference between the two is not statistically significant.

Met Office data also shows that global temperatures in the first half of 2010 have been close to record levels.

Global temperatures are expected to fall later this year, as El Nino fades fast, possibly replaced by La Nina conditions. Just how fast they fall will be critical in deciding whether, as the Met Office forecast late last year, 2010 becomes the hottest year on record.

A similar drop was experienced during the second half of 1998; 1999 was a cooler year and it is likely that 2011 will be cooler than 2010, too.

All this comes against a background of a continued very weak solar cycle which has gone on far longer than normal.

Those who believe that the sun plays a much bigger role in governing the level of global temperatures (as opposed to how it might affect weather patterns) could be forced to re-think their beliefs in the face of these high worldwide temperatures which are being measured by both conventional land and sea-based thermometers, and satellite data alike.

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