Winter to continue well into next week
It has been the earliest spell of cold weather and snow to envelop the whole of the UK since 1993. But it hasn't been the earliest snow locally; in fact here in Yorkshire we have had snow in November on several occasions since 1993.
And spare a thought for Spain and Portugal. The jet stream will steer very active weather systems through this area, leading to prolonged heavy rain which is almost certain to lead to some flooding, as was the case last winter.
So far snowfall has been confined mainly to more eastern areas of our area with snow showers pushed southwards on the prevailing wind.
A subtle but noticeable change will occur in the next 12 hours though, with the wind changing direction to the northeast.
The source of the air flowing across the UK this weekend in Northern Russia where temperatures are around minus 25C. We have the North Sea to thank for modifying this air mass as it comes south-westwards.
Snow showers are likely to develop readily as this cold air comes across the North Sea. The main area of uncertainty in this weekends forecast is the strength of the wind which will be crucial in determining how far west the showers get.
The chart below illustrates the problem well.
Notice the North Sea, coloured green and blue which indicates the computer expects precipitation to develop. But all models have a weakness in that they are unable to move convective showers at any one grid point with the steering wind flow. Hence all models invariably underestimate the penetration of showers inland.
There could also be small scale disturbances which develop in the cold air/warm sea boundary which could lead to more organisation of the snow showers which is very difficult to predict.
So this weekend expect snow showers (possibly rain or sleet right along the coast) to affect eastern areas, which could be frequent - and at times, as the wind picks up, these snow showers will be driven well inland.
Next week there will be a classic battle between low pressure and milder air in the south, and high pressure and colder air to the north as the chart for Tuesday shows.
Where the 2 meet, significant snowfall is likely. Will the cold air hang on, or will the milder air win? This is very much open to question, with quite a few models disagreeing on this aspect. But expect strong bitter easterlies to develop next week as the battle commences.
Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for Ö÷²¥´óÐã Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. I've been interested in the weather and climate for as long as I can remember, and worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for more than ten years locally and at the international unit before joining the Ö÷²¥´óÐã in October 2007. Here I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.
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