There seems little chance of a significant improvement to our weather through the early part of August, following a generally poor July across the country.

Much of West and North Yorkshire was cool and wet, with Bradford recording 147% of its average rainfall with below average temperatures.

More southern and eastern areas fared a little better, with Lincolnshire experiencing weather conditions closer to normal.

The month started with so much promise, with Heathrow recording 36.7C on the 1st, establishing a new July UK record.

It was one of many new July records across the country, with no fewer than four established in our region, most notably Sheffield, with data back to 1882.

But after the record heat of the 1st, records were set for the cold on the morning of the 31st July, including Exeter airport in Devon and Benson in Oxfordshire.

Closer to home, the mercury fell to 3.5C at Topcliffe, which is a new record, although the data set at this North Yorkshire observing site is short.

The coming days will be again dominated by low pressure, with a prevailing west to southwest wind.

And with the North Atlantic colder than average, as long as the wind remains in this direction, the cooler than average summer conditions will continue.

The first hot spell of summer has turned out to be a record breaker, with numerous stations across the country setting new records.

Heathrow airport this afternoon recorded 36.7C (98F), a new UK record for July, beating the previous record of 36.5C set in Wisley in 2006.

Local records have tumbled too – with the mercury rising to 34.3C (93F) at Cranwell in South Lincolnshire – smashing the previous record of 32.8C set in 1959.

So far this afternoon Waddington (32.8C), Coningsby (33.3C) and Cranwell in Lincolnshire have all broken their July records.

In Yorkshire, a new record has been set in Sheffield, with 33C (91F) - beating the previous record of 31.8C set in 1941. Sheffield's weather observations go all the way back to 1882, so this is a notable new record.

Relief is at hand though, with much fresher – but still warm - conditions expected on Thursday with an ongoing risk of a thunderstorm.

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A dramatic change in the weather is expected next week, with very warm air over the continent spreading northwards across the UK.

Temperatures across the south of France and parts of Spain may reach 40C or more, next week, with 30C plus likely across southern Britain.

In our region, although some northern and western parts of Yorkshire may see a little rain for a time on Tuesday, temperatures could easily reach 27C.

In fact, the latest American model suggests 31C across parts of South Yorkshire and Lincolnshire on Wednesday.

There is uncertainty about how long the hot spell will last, and there’s always the risk of thunderstorms.

But it will be a huge change after what was a poor May and decidedly average June.

May has turned out to be a real let down, following the glorious April which was the sunniest on record across the UK.

Provisional figures for Yorkshire show it was much wetter than normal, but with a marked contrast temperature-wise from west to east, with mean temperatures in the east not actually far from the seasonal average.

And June has begun with very unseasonable weather conditions.

The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for strong winds, with gusts to 50mph in exposed locations and along the coast, together with some heavy rain tonight.

But a long-awaited respite is expected from the middle of the week, with high pressure expected to build across the UK.

The picture, as ever, is not totally straightforward, with a risk of thundery showers developing in places on Friday, with some models bringing a risk of rain for a time over the weekend.

But, in general terms, high pressure is likely to dominate for the first half of June, which will mean a big improvement in our weather.

In March, observations in the Pacific confirmed that a weak El Nino event was upon us, with scientists now believing that there is a 70% chance that the phenomena will last through summer, and a 60% chance that it will last through autumn.

El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world.

During previous El Nino events, much wetter winters have occurred in Southwest USA.

For California, the developing El Nino will therefore be welcome news following a chronic lack of rainfall.

The Australian bureau of meteorology has predicted that it could strengthen, with a risk of a ‘substantial’ event.

But caution is required – other models suggest it will remain weak or moderate at best – moreover computer models are notoriously unreliable when it comes to this type of prediction.

There’s been a lot of talk in the media this week about the possible impact El Nino will have here in the UK, with talk of a harsh winter ahead.

Research suggests that it can cause colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean in response to a jet stream that is forced further south than normal.

During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the UK, was exceptionally cold.

But there are many other factors which affect our climate.

Indeed there was a deep, protracted solar minimum at the same time, which is known to increase the likelihood of colder winters.

And despite El Nino of 2006/2007, Europe’s winter was mild.

So it’s far too soon, and far too simplistic, to suggest that next winter will be cold solely in response to El Nino.

But higher global temperatures are almost certain.

That means 2015 is odds on to becoming the warmest globally on instrumental record.

According to Met Office provisional statistics, April was the 5th sunniest on record across the UK.

It was also much drier than normal, with above average temperatures too.

So it’s a shame that the weather has turned much more unsettled, just in time for the inaugural Tour de Yorkshire cycle race.

If the organisers had taken a glance at historical weather conditions for early May then they might have thought again about choosing this bank holiday weekend, such is its track record for cool and unsettled weather.

That said, only Sunday morning looks poor this weekend, so it could have been a lot worse.

Friday looks a perfect day, all parts dry with plenty of sunshine and a light breeze.

Saturday will be fine too, although increasingly chilly as an easterly breeze picks up.

As for Sunday, although timings may change a little, heavy morning rain should clear as conditions improve for the afternoon.

With Bank Holiday Monday looking mostly fine, there will be come reasonable weather to be had this weekend.

The glorious weather that has been with us for much of April is about to end this weekend.

Even though next week will be cooler and more unsettled, April is bound to turn out a warm, dry and sunny month when the monthly statistics are released by the Met Office, with the mean CET (Central England Temperature) currently running 2 degrees Celsius above normal for the month so far.

The fine weather comes at a time when tabloid headline writers have been having a field day, with predictions that the fine weather is the start of a spring and summer heatwave.

It reminded me of the link between the weather in April – and in particular rainfall – and likely summer weather conditions.

It’s one of the few links that we have here in the UK, such is the changeable nature of our weather, although it cannot be entirely relied on.

But there have been many warm and sunny Aprils – such as 1997 and 2007 – which have been followed by wet summers.

The late Bill Foggitt, Yorkshire’s most famous amateur weatherman, who kept generations of weather readings for over a century at his home in Thirsk, North Yorkshire, once told me to be very wary of fine and settled Aprils.

On this occasion it may be wise to heed Bill’s warning.

On Friday morning, a partial solar eclipse will be visible across our region for the first time since August 1999.

Back then I was filming with Look North in Scarborough.

Conditions were perfect, with hardly a cloud in the sky shortly after sunrise, and the view from the sea front was spectacular.

This time, however, there’s likely to be a lot of cloud in many areas.

That said, there may be scope for cloud breaks especially in eastern areas to the lee of high ground.

The time for maximum coverage of the sun by the moon is 9.33am, with up to 90% of the sun obscured.

I’ll be returning to Scarborough for Look North hoping to see one of nature’s rare and spectacular shows, with a preview on Thursday evening’s program.

The long term decline in Arctic sea ice is continuing, with satellite data showing the third lowest February ice extent, in records which began in 1979.

The Arctic ice maximum usually happens towards the end of March, although last year there was a large increase in Arctic sea ice, so a new record is by no means certain.

The continued declining trend in Arctic sea ice has been well forecast by climate models, something that can’t be said at the other end of the planet.

Last month, Antarctica sea ice reached its annual minimum, which turned out to be the fourth highest summer minimum extent on record.

Remarkably, the trend for Antarctica sea ice extent in February shows an increase of 5% per decade.

The extent and positive trend for Antarctica sea ice continues to confound climate experts and computer models alike.

According to provisional Met Office figures, winter has turned out to be exceptionally sunny, with the UK enjoying its sunniest winter since records began in 1929.

And contrary to the many hysterical headlines of extreme cold, winter temperatures were close to normal, with rainfall just slightly above normal across the UK.

That’s a big improvement on last winter which was the wettest on record.

March has certainly come in like a lion, with strong winds and a risk of sleet and snow showers for many in the next 24 hours.

But by the weekend, there’s a real prospect of spring-like conditions, with much milder air from the southwest.

Cloud amounts may be quite large in western areas but further east, with some sunshine, parts of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire could reach 15C (59F).

Mainly settled weather conditions, associated with high pressure, may then last till mid-month.

A fine and dry week is expected with high pressure dominating our weather, but forecasting temperature levels will be challenging to say the least.

Firstly, air is flowing over the Pennines from west to east, drying and warming as it does so.

This is called the Fohn effect, resulting in temperatures in the Vale of York, for example, in double figures.

Yesterday 12C (54F) was recorded in Durham, with a definite feel of spring in the air.

The second complication is a lowering temperature inversion.

Counter-intuitively this results in temperatures at the top of a hill or mountain being higher than those in the valley bottom, if the inversion is low enough.

This is because with high pressure, the air gradually descends, and warms as it does so, hitting the top of the hill first.

A low inversion also means that any cloud in western areas cannot get over topographic barriers like the Pennines, leaving clear blue skies to the east of high ground.

The computer is often poor in modelling such situations, overstating amounts of cloud and as a consequence being far too pessimistic with temperature levels.

Later this week as air pressure falls, the inversion will rise, with generally cloudier conditions likely – in theory at least!

END

Snow showers have again been causing problems this evening in eastern parts of our region, with the Yorkshire Wolds around Fridaythorpe and Garrowby Hill worst affected.

These areas – mostly to the east of the A1 and M1 – will continue to be at risk from snow showers over the next few days.

The Met Office has issued a warning for Tuesday night into Wednesday for eastern areas, with the potential for frequent snow showers leading to significant accumulations on the North York moors and Wolds, with several centimetres at lower levels too.

Western areas will be generally dry, but with sharp frost at night.

Somewhat less cold air is expected over the weekend, with an Atlantic influence expected across much of the UK next week.

Winter looks set to come roaring back later this week, as an arctic northerly develops across the UK.

For western areas, in particular the Pennines, this comes hot off the heels of last week’s snow, which amounted to 9 inches in places.

But most other parts of our region to the east of high ground have had no proper wintry weather at all so far this winter.

By the weekend, with a straight northerly, it will be north-sea facing coastal areas that will bear the brunt of the sleet and snow showers for a change, with significant accumulations possible, for example, on the North York moors.

Before that, with increasingly cold air by Thursday morning, sleet and snow showers are expected more widely, with some nasty driving conditions in Pennine areas.

The cold spell is expected to last into next week with some sharp frosts at night.

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Not for the first time this winter, westerly gales have been battering parts of the UK this evening, with gusts in our region reaching 72mph at High Bradfield on the South Yorkshire Pennines.

But the jet stream is set to weaken and alter course, and as a result the UK is in for the first proper cold spell of the winter so far.

It will mark a big departure from last winter which was almost completely dominated by westerly winds.

In the coming days the air will be cold enough for showers to turn to sleet and snow at times.

Sharp night frosts will also become a feature of the weather.

And by the middle of next week, with the jet stream to the south of the UK, pressure will build to the north, with some models suggesting the first easterly of the winter so far.

Some sleet and snow is likely in places, but just how much, and where, is something that forecasters will be able to firm up on over the coming days.

END

A stormy spell of weather is expected across parts of the UK in the next 36 hours, as the jet stream reaches speeds of around 250mph.

Northern Scotland will experience the highest surface wind speeds, with gusts possibly in excess of 100mph later tonight.

Even the more populated central belt of Scotland may experience gusts around 80mph for a time.

Widespread gales will develop in our region too, with gusts on Friday morning reaching 60mph – but as high as 70mph in the most exposed spots.

With gale force winds expected again on Friday night and into Saturday morning, it’s likely to be the stormiest spell of winter so far.

It is not, though, unusual in a typical British winter to be affected by a powerful jet stream, and in parts of Yorkshire, gusts of this magnitude happen several times each year.

Current indications suggest that there’s likely to be very little change in the overall unsettled westerly type of weather conditions which may last at least into the second half of January.