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I've been trying to make a start on this blog entry all morning, but like almost everyone, I have no idea exactly how all the to-ing and fro-ing is going to pan out.

Yesterday morning, I was convinced the only likely deal was a Lib-Con alliance.

last night a Lib-Lab coalition appeared to be favourite.

Now as I write it seems Lib-Con is back on the cards.

But equally it's also possible that the Conservatives may end up trying to go it alone as a minority administration.

In the end I do come back to what I said in my last post.

The most likely alternatives remain a Conservative-Liberal Democrat deal, or a minority Tory government.

The numbers for Lib-Lab don't add up, especially as there are now a growing number of Labour MPs who view a pact as undesirable and potentially disastrous.

It can't be ruled out yet, but as time goes on and dissent rises, the prospects of it being viable recede.

I know Labour MPs in our region who have nothing but contempt for most Liberal Democrats, and are unlikely to back a deal that could unravel within months.

But can some of our local Lib Dems stomach a deal with the Conservatives?

Many of them first became involved in politics during the 1980s because of their opposition to Thatcherism.

The one thing they certainly share with their Labour colleagues in the North, is a fierce antipathy towards the Conservatives.

One has told me that they could cope with a Tory deal, but only if it was an exceptionally good one, particularly on voting reform.

The Conservatives have offered a referendum on the Alternative Vote system, but to this Lib Dem member that was unlikely to be enough.

So it's possible Nick Clegg and the Lib Dem leadership could carve out a deal only to see it fail to win the support of enough MPs and party representatives.

How long then can this drag on?

In theory, until the Queen's Speech, but in reality, it seems unlikely it can drag on longer than the end of this week. There is pressure for a decision today.

If the Lib Dems can't agree a deal with either party, that leaves David Cameron pressing to rule alone.

That hardly sounds like a recipe for stability either.

The longer term question is what this will do to the public's appetite for an electoral system that will produce almost permanent coalition government.

If a deal can be done quickly, memories may fade, a coalition may work, but if the chaos drags on, the public may hanker once more for clear results.

Meanwhile, I've just heard that David Miliband's heading for 10 Downing Street.

Only to visit for now. His future - Labour leadership contender or the next potential Prime Minister - also depends on the decision of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats.

And, although not an issue of national importance, the prevarication is also making planning a little tricky!

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