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Battle of Milibands heats up after leadership poll shock

Richard Moss | 16:57 UK time, Tuesday, 14 September 2010

Labour leadership contenders

The Labour leadership contenders at the hustings in Newcastle

After months of meandering rather aimlessly to its conclusion, the Labour leadership contest seems to have caught light at last.

But the reason for the sudden surge in interest isn't good news for .

That's because it was which suggested could be heading for a narrow victory.

For some it would have come as a surprise. There were many who thought David was a shoo-in.

But personally, I never believed it would be a simple coronation.

I suspected it would be close, even if the only two contenders were likely to be the Miliband brothers.

And I always suspected David Miliband could be weighed down by New Labour baggage, and vulnerable to an attack by someone who could appeal to the party's traditional supporters.

And the length of the contest also hasn't necessarily helped Miliband Snr.

A quick battle would have made it hard for any other candidate to build momentum.

and carved out a clear narrative - David represents New Labour and the past, he represents a future that will move on but also return Labour to its roots.

And there's no question that David Miliband is feeling the heat.

I received an e-mail from today asking supporters to join a phone bank and contact 20 members in the next 24 hours.

The former Foreign Secretary has talked about the poll being a "wake-up call" and refocusing the campaign during an interview with the Politics Show on Sunday. An indication that he knows it could be very close.

And Ed Miliband actually believes he's further ahead than the poll suggests.

He claims his support amongst MPs was underestimated by the Sunday Times and that he will win far more parliamentary votes than expected.

David and Ed Miliband

Given an electoral system that relies very much on who voters put as their second preference, it is hard to call though.

Some Labour members I have spoken to in the past have felt some conflict between their head and heart.

Ed's appeal to their Labour values won their hearts. For some I suspect he offers a chance for them to feel good about being part of the party again, after years of being worn down by the responsibilities of government.

But their heads said David may still be the most likely to get them back into power; the man David Cameron fears the most.

I suspect it'll be down now to which one of the Milibands can widen their appeal to those still left to vote. Can David convince members that he can make them fall in love with being part of the Labour party he leads, or can Ed convince waverers that he can win power as well as the leadership contest?

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