Ö÷²¥´óÐã

Move over Nostradamus, and make way for Mosstradamus.

Welcome to 2011.

So what lies ahead politically for the North East and Cumbria in the next year?

Once again I have decided to be Mosstradamus (yes, I know it's dreadful but cut me some slack) and gaze into the future.

Last year I said 2010 would all be about elections and the economy (my, I was really sticking my neck out there).

But actually 2011 echoes that.

We don't have a General Election this year (assuming the Coalition holds together) but we have a huge set of local elections.

A third of the seats in the Tyne and Wear metropolitan councils, Hartlepool, Carlisle, South Lakeland, and Harrogate are up.

But there's also all-out elections in Middlesbrough, Stockton, Redcar and Cleveland, Darlington, and all the other districts in Cumbria and North Yorkshire.

It will be the first test of the new politics for all three of our main parties.

On the ground it may seem as if little has changed with Conservatives fighting Lib Dems across the region.

But the elections could be a real test for the coalition partners.

For the Lib Dems in particular, it could be a tough set of elections.

Polling in the North East at the end of last year suggested support for the party had slumped to just 4%.

If that is anywhere near right, the Lib Dems will certainly lose control of .

They will hope that they retain the support of many tactical-voting Conservatives who have given the party their support to keep Labour out.

It will be interesting to see whether there are the same problems in a place like though where many Labour voters may have also voted tactically for them. The battle there is against the Conservatives.

A big loss of seats is bound to be bad for morale in local parties though, and could lead to more defections.

But it may also tie the Lib Dems closer to the Conservatives nationally, as the collapse of the Coalition could lead to electoral wipe-out. Many northern Lib Dems would really fear for the future of their party if they were to get too close.

The Lib Dems will also have to persuade the North to support a change from first-past-the-post to thein a referendum being held at the same time as the local elections.

And what of the Tories? They have made progress in recent years to rebuild their local government base in the North.

But might being in government see them falling back in Carlisle, Sunderland, Stockton and North Tyneside? It will be a test for them.

Labour though will also face a challenge. They will be expected to make big gains, and anything less than a triumph in May might put pressure on .

His brother meanwhile continues to be linked to almost every feasible international political job that comes along.

David Miliband may or may not be destined to become the , or . or the , but you can be sure the speculation on his future won't stop.

In fact the only fact speculators agree on is that he probably won't still be South Shields' MP by the end of 2011, .

For his party though, it's a year which could see the rebuilding of its local government base.

Labour will want to win Newcastle back, not just deprive the Lib Dems of a majority. They'd also hope to make gains in Teesside to prove the area has forgiven them for the Corus closure.

That brings us to the economy.

2010 has actually seen more benign conditions economically than had been expected.

Unemployment has generally fallen, and recent research suggested the region had weathered the recession better than almost any other part of Britain.

But can that possibly continue as job losses in the public sector kick in?

have predicted 50,000, with 20,000 of those in the private sector. They do also expect the economy to grow, but slowly.

If things are much worse than that though, and the dole queue grows more sharply, there may even be the danger of social unrest, with strikes also a distinct possibility.

There may be good news on jobs if the Redcar steelworks is taken over.

There may be some positive developments. A deal could well be done to reopen Redcar's steelworks, at its Wearside works, and the Government may give the go-ahead for a train factory employing 800 people in County Durham.

We will also see the first money flow from the .

It is supposed to help regions like ours that are dependent on the public sector, so people will be watching closely to see where the grants go, and what impact the new Local Enterprise Partnerships have.

But any private sector recovery will have to be rapid to mop up the thousands of people leaving the pay of the public sector.

Our councils in particular will have to think of radical solutions to cope with cuts.

They will be laying people off, but also working with other local authorities to share services.

Expect there to be howls of protest too as services and buildings valued by the public are closed down or cut.

That may prove to be the true test of the Government's Big Society ideas. They will be trialled in in Cumbria over the next year but are the public really enthusiastic to run their own communities? We'll find out.

There is more reform on the way too. GP commissioning is planned for the NHS, elected commissioners could take charge of our police forces, many schools could end up leaving local authority control. All changes that lie further ahead, but all will be debated heavily this year.

It promises to be a fascinating 12 months.

But even if I am Mosstradamus, after last year's momentous events, it's hard to make too many predictions.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• |
• |
• - What's this?