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I've introduced him to you before, the psephologist who keeps reminding all around him that the General Election hasn't happened yet. The Conservatives haven't won it yet. In fact they may never win it.

The last time I heard him argue cogently and persuasively to a room full of journalists that the Tories have yet to "seal the deal with the electorate" as we keep putting it, he was so keen to make a lasting impression on all present that he offered to give his presentation through the medium of dance. Perhaps thankfully that wasn't necessary. The statistics did a perfectly good job of jolting anyone who thought David Cameron has got this election in the bag.

Well he hasn't changed his mind and neither, for what it's worth, have those Conservative politicians who stop for a chat in and around the Assembly. They sense victory, they are working full out for a victory but they're the first to agree that the 1997-it's-in-the-bag feeling is not there. It could be closer than people think. A hung parliament? Absolutely possible. Don't you realise how many seats we need to win to get even the slightest majority?

I do. It's 117. If you're in any doubt as to "enormity of the task" ahead of the Conservatives - I'm quoting Eric Pickles who utters the word "enormity" as no one else quite can - then as he put it in his recent War Room briefing, the Tories will have to win seats they haven't taken since 1987 like Pendle, Nuneaton, Ipswich; seats they haven't taken since 1983 like Dewsbury and Halifax; seats they've not taken since 1970 like Bradford West and even, wait for it, seats like Carlile they haven't taken since 1959. Oh and "we're going to need to do well in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales".

Quite.

So all in all Mr Pickles would approve of the psephologist's thinking, which really hasn't changed in the past few months.

Yes, the polls suggest that David Cameron is more popular than Gordon Brown but as a leader, Mr Cameron polls significantly higher than his party. In other words we quite like Mr Cameron but do we think he's changed his party as we thought Tony Blair had changed Labour? No, apparently we don't.

The Conservatives lead Labour in the polls when questions about handling the economy are asked but taking care of ordinary people post-recession? Spreading the burden of inevitable cuts? Minimising public sector job cuts? Labour often comes out top.

Of course the same sort of polls suggest the Conservatives are going to win the election. But win it by enough to be, roughly, 11 points ahead of Labour and win the narrowest of majorities? How sure are you?

Who else would approve of the psephologist's message? I'd suggest a senior Labour party figure who was in town recently hammering home the same sort of message himself. He was despairing at his own colleagues who seem to have given up the fight, senior colleagues at that who are quoted back at him when he tries to persuade ordinary voters on the doorsteps that it's game on, not game over.

For Labour to win? Prepare for a tough fight aimed absolutely and mercilessly at stopping the other side from winning.

Could it be done? Yes, it could ... if his colleagues could be persuaded to stand and fight.

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