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The Interview

Betsan Powys | 10:56 UK time, Wednesday, 11 November 2009

You must have been there yourself.

The job interview is drawing to a close. So far, you've done ok. You've answered all the questions put to you. You've not put your foot in it. You're not sure if you've outshone the others going for it but you've shown you know what is required to do the job and you've set out why you reckon you could do it well.

Then comes the final, throwaway question from them: Why do you want this job?

Edwina Hart, Carwyn Jones and Huw Lewis might be thinking just that this morning. First comes the news of the fire that will greet their baptism as Wales' brand new First Minister. It'll come in the form of the UK governmen'ts pre-budget report which will be delivered in parliament at 1230 GMT on Dec 9. The new Welsh Labour leader will have been in the job for around 24 hours before the Chancellor delivers "an update on public finances" - in other words, before they discover just how tough things are going to get.

Welcome to the job First Minister.

Their first challenge? To look at the unemployment figures relased today and respond in any other way than putting their head in their hands and wail. In Wales the number of people unemployed grew by 14,000 to 125,000 between July and September.

In the North East, in Yorkshire/Humber, in the West Midlands, the numbers went down.

In London, the North West, in the East Midlands, in the South East, the South West, they went up. They went up in Scotland and Northern Ireland by 4,000 - to 7.2% - but nowhere did they go up as much as in Wales. Here they went up by 14,000 - to 8.7%. In pure numerical terms, that's almost twice the rise of any other region in the UK.

There will be any number of stories hidden here - trends that are going up, not down, trends that are increasing but increasing more slowly than they might. But the bottom line is there for all to see. The same goes for the enormity of the challenge for the Assembly Government and its new leader.

Ah and then there'll be the All Wales Convention which reports next Wednesday. It'll be sitting in that handover pack Rhodri Morgan leaves on his desk for the next imcumbent of his office. To what extent he'll have left the decision for them to take, we'll have to wait and see but as the outgoing leader put it to journalists recently, if his successor doesn't want to make the decision, they shouldn't want the job in the first place.

So Mrs Hart, Mr Jones, Mr Lewis: why DO you want the job?

UPDATE: The Assembly Government have commented, though not on the unemployment figures as they have for the past few months. They've commented solely on the claimant count. That shows a smaller increase than in recent months, despite the big rise in unemployment figures. This is what they're calling "encouraging to note":

"Whilst it is important not to read too much into a single months figures, it is encouraging to note that the claimant count level in Wales has continued its downward trend. During the early stages of the global downturn, the claimant count was rising by around 4,000 per month - tailing off to around 1,000 per month during the summer. Today's rise of 300 - the smallest increase since the start of the recession - is an indication that the recession could be bottoming out, although we are not at all complacent and will continue to fight for every job and to maintain the skills of our workforce."

UPDATE

Come off it, we said. What about the unemployment figures?

"It is disappointing that the latest figures show a quarterly rise in ILO unemployment for Wales. This does not however reflect the position over the year (a comparison recommended by the ONS to remove some of the volatility in quarterly figures). In addition, the level of ILO unemployment does not take into account any changes in economic inactivity - a historically important indicator for the Welsh economy. The employment rate for Wales over the year (taking into account unemployment and inactivity levels) shows one of the lowest falls when compared to the rest of the UK - with Wales outperforming London, the South East, Scotland and Northern Ireland (amongst others)."

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