Ö÷²¥´óÐã

I can think of one man, at least, who'll forgive me for having a bit of a light touch on the blogging front from Plaid Cymru's conference over the weekend. I'm afraid that what
Still, let's play catch-up with one phrase heard repeatedly at the Swalec stadium: the Celtic bloc. That's right, the Celtic bloc, not the Celtic block Honorary President Dafydd Wigley thought I was asking about after a fringe meeting on Saturday. "No idea sorry" he said. "I'm a bit confused by the lay-out here. Which one IS the Celtic block?"

The Celtic bloc I was after is the one that would involve SNP and Plaid MPs working together to strike a deal for Scotland and for Wales should there be a hung parliament and should Mr Brown or Mr Cameron come knocking after the election. Plaid's Deputy leader at the Assembly, Helen Mary Jones was pretty clear in televised pieces that ran on Friday that "especially working together" Plaid and the SNP would be a force to be reckoned with.

Except ... why would they work together, when their shopping lists must surely look quite different?

Let me explain a simple truth that the man who went through the Barnett Formula like a dose of salts on behalf of the Assembly Government made perfectly clear to Plaid delegates on Saturday. It was, , a bit like watching a man snuffing out candles left, right and centre.

I'll concentrate on just the one: the Celtic bloc.

What's likely to be the number one issue at this election? The economy: when and how the governing party would deal with the inevitable of cutting public spending. Labour say not too soon or you'll kill off any chance of growth. The Lib Dems broadly agree. If you don't cut early enough there'll be no growth to work with, say the Conservatives, though one or two in their ranks seem slightly concerned that an effort to be honest with voters has gone too far, that indicating they'd cut sooner and deeper might have left them looking just a bit too honest for their own good.

In a Westminster election it is bound to be the big issue. Yes, devolved politics, where the budget spent by the Assembly Government is entirely dependent on what they get from the Treasury means the debate in Wales is not quite the same one. Don't blame me. I'll only point you in the direction of the Government of Wales Act 2006. But yes, in Wales too, it will be the biggest issue of all.

On Friday the First Minister will address a summit he's called to discuss the way forward for public services. Carwyn Jones is, after all, the man now charged with driving forward the delivery of public services. The message sounds as though it has to be: yes, that's an axe I'm holding behind my back but go on, squeeze those efficiency savings and boy, the axe will hurt a whole lot less.

So: back to the Celtic bloc.

IF the electoral maths falls in their favour and the support of their MPs is needed, what would SNP and Plaid MPs want? As far as Plaid goes, the shopping list is there for all to see. Money. They know no incoming government is going to revisit the Barnett Formula overnight but they know too that an incoming government desperate for their vote could come up with some cash.

How much? Let's start, say Plaid, with the £300m that said Wales was not getting and would be getting if the way money was divvied up was entirely consistent and fair. In other words take a look at the many formulaes used in England to divvy up cash, take a look at variables such as how many children under 16 there are, how many pensioners, the proportion of the population on benefits or with chronic health problems, apply those to Wales and you can make a pretty convincing argument - indeed the Holtham Commission did just that - which Wales should be getting some £300m more per year.

However take that dose of salts and apply it the Scottish situation and, guess what? You come the "political problem" as Mr Holtham put it so neatly. The same maths applied to Scotland suggests they'd be losing out to the tune of £4.2b per year. That's right, £4.2 billion.

So now, if and when Plaid and SNP MPs are sitting outside Mr Cameron's or Mr Brown's door in a few months time, tell me this: what are the chances they work as a bloc on this one?

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• |
• |
• - What's this?