Adding it up
Herewith a little grouse.
On Sunday, the first minister cited Scottish Government statistics to the effect that Scotland, with oil revenues, had the potential to be the third wealthiest nation in Europe.
He said that the figures showed that, in terms of GDP per head, Scotland would lag behind only Luxembourg and Ireland.
Since then, the Scottish Government has been under pressure to produce those figures or, more precisely, the detailed calculations upon which they are based.
鈥淪how us your working鈥 is the cry, familiar to generations of maths scholars. As I write, the figures have yet to be published.
Not good, say I. Not good at all. I am not yet ready to join the parade of those accusing the first minister of using the civil service for partisan purposes.
He鈥檚 the boss. He鈥檚 entitled to ask for advice and statistics in any area he fancies will help him do his job as first minister.
If he then chooses to put a political spin on that material while at party conference, I am relaxed.
However, that material should be freely and fully available so that opposition parties can examine the details, can offer comments as to the interpretation placed upon those statistics.
It should also be available, freely and fully, to the wicked - and waiting - media.
I'll get back to you when it is.
I'm 
Comments
I agree Brian. The First Minister seems content to talk about the figures but not content to publish them for all to scrutinise. I wonder why?
Oh BRIAN BRIAN BRIAN..................Watched you on Sunday and enjoyed it But wit were you thinkin of, wearin that "BUNNET". You are one brave man. I take my hat of to you (sorry).
PS......how about a natty baseball cap worn back tae front eh ?
Brian, I get what you are saying, and in a perfect world of course I agree. But I seem to recall the Lib-Lab pact and Westminster were not so well known to share it's information out with the opposition.
We all had to take the odious GERS as the gospel according to the Scottish media, will they take these fugures at such face value? Well that would require a Scottish media that wouldn't make politicians in Belarus blush.
Doubt there is anything in this story. Will be interesting to see if the "Scottish" media manufacture problems for the new snp minority govt. that they didn't in the past when Lib-Lab Pact announced the latest GERS nonsense every year.
Absolutely! I've been saying this since before the elections. We simply can't realistically move toward independence until we've seen some numbers.
As I have said before give us the details so that all voters, SNP, Liberal, Labour, Conservatives and others are fully briefed before going to the polls; the workings are essential, I have seen many headline claims that have never been backed up by the full details.
鈥淪how us your working鈥 is a reasonable cry; we deserve nothing less than the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
I'll wait for you, our Scottish representative of that wicked and waiting media to get back to us, even though you are an Arab.
Aye Brian,after watching the tone of your interviews at last years SNP Conference then comparing them to this years interview with that wee lassie Nicola, I am becoming very concerned for your health. Potraying the prosecutor at the Spanish Inquisition you constantly seemed genuinely aggrieved that Wee Nicola wouldnt confess to the 1,000 new Knights Templars. Confess you say, confess witch of the Devil Incarnate Salmondo. No Brian, there will be 1,000 Knights Templars in the Holy Land defending us from the Young Little Arabs who were determined to take over our land.
Perhaps your slip was showing more than normal, as you questioned the pare wee soul, must keep up the stiff upper lip and defend your BBc Uk Brian. God it could end up destroying your labour traditions. Christ the next thing you will be telling us is that Dundee United will be beating Rangers. Mellow out Brian and try a bit harder to hide you disdain at the prospect your fellow countrymen might be right on this one. At least give them the option to find out if they are. Your Career with an organisation like the 主播大秀 fades from significance when it compares to the People of Scotlands right to decide, without you scribes doing your best to mislead them.
"However, that material should be freely and fully available so that opposition parties can examine the details, . . . "
Oh dear, Brian, and here was me thinking you were dispassionate and neutral.
However, having a scientific background, I agree that 'material should be freely available' not only for, preferably, informed comment but also for the dinosaurs whose slogan seems to be 'We are the Party of Power, so vote for us' brigade. At one time i thought that referred to the Tories. How times change.
Notwithstanding any issues over where Alex Salmond got his statistical data, the surprise to me is that Ireland (who are not blessed with significant oil reserves) are in the top 2. Maybe access to oil revenue isn't crucial to a successful independent Scotland.
Why give it to the media Brian? With the exception of an honourable few they would just lie about the figures.
The unionist argument only disputes the amount that Scotland would gain, not the fact that it would gain.
This gain of course is only theoretical,it could only be realised in an independent Scotland.
It makes voting simple.
Simply, Craig.
Good and fair point Brian, but Didnt Lab/libs tell us for years that we were too poor a nation to go it alone without showing us their workings. Truth is Ive gotten the treasury figure for Scotland
47 billion raised in taxes etc for the treasury.
29 billion given to Scottish government
32 billion oil revenue went to treasury.
It would seem that scotland is indeed in surplus by the tune of 37.5 billion pounds if you consider we only get 75% of the oil resources in Scottish waters. This is enough to double our Teacher and police numbers never mind a poultry 1000 more bobbies and put 10 billion away for a futures fund . And when oil runs out some time after the next 30 years at least. We can rely on the large energy market we will produce with renewables and they dont run out.
C,mon folks gies a break and take yer heid oot o the sand.
#1
Scott. I have no opinion on the figures used by the First Minister, but if you had any knowledge of international government expenditure and revenue statists you would know that the practices used by independent statisticians in Scotland are entirely consistent with international standards. In fact, practices used by the civil service in Scotland in collating GERS have been praised for their clarity and openness.
It is a political decision whether to undertake a GERS project. It would be just as politically motivated not to conduct the exercise.
But it is a complete myth that the empirical content of GERS is politically motivated. The conclusions politicans choose to make about the results are inherently politicial and therefore the subject of a debate. Surely a legitimate exercise in a democracy?
I am sick of people undermining the best economists in the country. I might have some academic queries about some of the methods used, but that is a normal, healthy academic practice. Whatever detailed debate I might have with them, these are economists who are judged by their peers to be open and honest in what they do.
Ita a lazy term "wealth". Most of us dont have wealth, and exhortations about creating more wealth are really about profits to go into the pockets of the already wealthy. Most of the people I know do not have anything remotely near the third highest per capita in Europe, which rather begs the question what worth the statistic is in the first place, never mind how Mr Salmond worked it out, other than to deceive. As for "Scotlands" oil -it will never be any more that than it is "Englands" oil as the majority of Scots and English will not be getting any ownership rights at all. Yes, lets see his sums, and he can explain how in a country where a fifth of the population hovers around the poverty level that he can spout about wealth per capita.
I agree, this is no different (though on a less serious matter) than Dougie Alexander apologising on TV rather than in the Commons. No probe with Salmond's action so far, but I hope for his sake the real figures match up - every delay implies the opposite.
Can I just say, this accusation of SNP 'propaganda' for the St. Andrews' packs is ridiculous. J McAlister says people will find their own way to celebrate; not last time I checked. Scottish students are more likely to mark St. Patricks day, and that's a fact. Maybe if we encouraged celebration in schools by providing a few flags, this would change. I certainly think it's a better use of money than the endless billboards produced under Labour.
In some countries, rightly or wrongly, the national flag is almost a sacrosanct symbol - this is the first time I've heard the idea of a national flag being sent to a school denounced as 'propaganda' - every example of nationalism is not an SNP scheme, surely there are other reasons for nationalism too.
When growing up in the 80's, we NEVER celebrated St. Andrews Day at school, aside from a wee bit of Burns, obviously. A wee bit more optimism about it might go a long way to helping national confidence, which, despite the doomsayers, does not have to lead to independence.
Please Brian do come back once you get the full details from the civil servants.
Now today John Curtice is parading again on the 主播大秀 another of his surveys on independence and yet just like a few months ago, I doubt very much if the media in general, the 主播大秀 in particular and you Brian Taylor had the opportunity to see the full details of those surveys taken every year. I want John Curtice to show us all the questions asked and the answers given this year and previous years. I want to know too if John Curtice has asked the people of Scotland if they still want a referendum because last time I checked real polls from official and independent sources all showed a 70% support for a referendum on the constitutional future of Scotland.
This is something that was particularly bad during the last election, one party with one set of figures and the other with a different set.
It has been rampant in politics for ages and it really comes down to who do you trust, especially when parties produce the figures and stats without the workings.
Even when the parties do eventually produce the workings there are usually arguments over the figures used so the voter is left no better off that before they were even announced.
Why don't parties use official stats that everyone can agree on? Surely the National Stats Office or Audit Scotland would be able to produce unbiased stats that everyone could agree on?
Steven #12.
You are forgetting that the 29billion to Scotland is to cover DEVOLVED items only.
There is a lot of money spent on Scotland by the UK Government for non-devolved items that you are conveniently forgetting in order to make your point.
This is why we need to see the working in Salmond's figures in order to route out gross inaccuracies like yours.
16
I might be wrong but these are the official figures provided by the civil service who are supposed to be non-political. I cant understand that Scotland even without oil revenues would be utterly broke. We actually do alright with our other industries and if we had the freedom to change our economic policy in the way Mr Darling has in westminster then Im sure we could produce a far more ecomically prosperous country. Ive lived and worked on the continent for some time and there are lots of other countries that would give their left whatsit for the natural resources, world profile for tourism, Whisky trade, silicon glen etc etc etc etc that Scotland has.
If the union is so good how come all our commonwealth brothers arnt beating down the door to rejoin.
Truth is London, The south, and southeast regions out perform scotland, but scotland is the fourth largest GDP per capita in the UK, after which there is a large gap then the rest of the regions with NI and Wales at the bottom with half the Scots GDP.
The four leading GDP areas are substantially better than the other regions and if Scotland were to become independant,she could spend more on scottish issues rather than helping to prop up more of the poorer english regions and Wales and NI.
So If scotland was to become independant their would be a greater burden on the top three regions in the disUK to pay for the other regions economic problems. Not something the south is to keen to have to do.
Now factor into this equation that Ive not even added the oil revenues to scotlands GDP. Then it becomes increasingly clear that the Union is a bad deal for Scotland.
TartanTerrorist 17
I agree Labour are still using their friends and family at Strathclyde University to provide surveys to the media telling the people of Scotland that nobody wants independence here.
John Curtice and his friend and colleague, Wendy Alexander's husband use to provide all the surveys and figures the last Scottish Executive needed to justify the unjustifiable. Now they supply the 主播大秀 with the same rubbish. Brian, please check what the 主播大秀 is putting out as truth.
To clear up the claims on GERS: the figures are perfectly clear, in no way fiddled or whatever. However, the way in which they were presented by previous administrations and "explained" in the press was a disgrace. Those civil servants compiling the figures were always very frank about explaining the debate had nothing whatever to do with Scotland's viability as an independent state. I am sure were there a huge black-hole in the more recent figures (which I personally doubt) they would be equally honest.
AM - GERS is a political exercise no more, no less. Of course, statisticians, civil servants and economists will act in an apolitical manner (hopefully) but if their remit is inherently political so will the report.
How else do you explain a report which includes arbitrary charges for things that Scotland doesn鈥檛 use, like the English Court Service, excludes North Sea Oil revenue and attributes almost of all of the Scotch Whisky industry鈥檚 economic activity to Central London? Has someone replanted Hackney Marshes with barley?
Anonymous #18 - Whilst I agree that we need to see the figures, you over egg the pudding when trying to dismiss Steven's argument.
Whilst reminding others about Scotland's share of UK spending, you would do well to remember that UK spending attributable to Scotland includes items such as London Transport (yes, buses and trains that run exclusively in London). Whilst Scotland's share of UK spending on non-devolved matters is approximately 10%, the amount of monies actually spent in Scotland and directly for the benefit of Scotland is an entirely different figure.
Here we go again. You don't even have to doubt SNP figures, only ask why they are not publishing them before they begin their cries of conspiracy on the part of the "unionist" media and academia. Moreover, the point is not just how much wealth there is but how it's distributed. Ireland and Luxembourg are probably the worst examples in Europe for Scotland to aspire in this respect. The 'figures' should the SNP ever see fit to share them would seem to say more about population than wealth. Let's face it, for the SNP all that matters is seperation - and at any cost.
Good Afternoon Brian,
I really should not be beyond the wit of researchers to provide figures that give an unbiased account of amount of revenue the Scottish economy raises.
If I remember the debate about the GERS figures a while ago one side claimed Scotland would have a black hole in its accounts versus expenditure of around 拢10 billion. The other side claimed GERS figures were a statistical fiddle and Scotland would actually be a land flowing with 'milk and honey'. My guess was the truth lay somewhere in bewtween.
The Economist ran an article before the 2007 election that claimed even taking oil revenue into account Scotland would probably run a deficit of about 拢5 billion per annum, and cited a report commissioned around 2005-2006 as its source. OK, oil prices are much higher than they were in 2005-2006 so perhaps at the 2007 oil price Scotland would 'break even'.
The single most important case that has to be made regarding Scotland's future in the Union is whether the economic case for breaking the Union adds up. After all, our pensions and everything else we take for granted rely on the health of the economy. If case adds up, then Scotland should go for it.
For all I know the GERS figures are accurate, however, others mistrust them. Until figures, compiled by unbiased parties, which allow interested members of the public like me to challenge the claims of both sides in this debate are available, the argument over wealth and "adding it up" will continue.
hi brian,
are you playing "devil'a advotate'
here? or just "stirring it?',
naughty boy, why woud'nt theese numbers be correct,you do the sums
its does not take a genious to work it out, remember alex was chief ecconomist for RBS.before he became
FM. so who would be the most qualified,i rest my case,also he's been proved right on many other things he has argued,so just once
he deserve to get the benifit of the
doubt,but why accept,when you can stir it, its just the nature of the beast.
It would be pointless the SNP releasing their calculations.
The media has already made up its mind that they're wrong and most journalists wouldn't understand them anyway.
If the figures were correct then Mr Salmond would have published them. He said 'releasing today' on Sunday and on Thursday still nothing.
Scotland is, I'm afraid, poorer than the rest of the UK, even with all the oil revenues. The City of London dwarfs the oil industry for example as does (primarily English) overseas earnings by multinationals. Oil is less than 1% of the UK economy.
The Irish have done so well because they have very low taxation. Since all Salmond has done is raise spending in a country which has the smallest wealth creating sector in Europe, I don't see how Scotland will emulate Ireland. In fact, Scotland is about the only country in the developed world not to have a pro-business, centre right party.
At the end of the day you have damn lies and statistics. It's how you interpret them or have them interpreted for you that matters. We have the propaganda tool of the British state as our interpreters, i.e. 主播大秀.
Whilst Scotland continues to give her wealth away to another country to fund illegal wars and nuclear weapons whilst Scotland鈥檚' poor go wanting, can we argue?
Wake up Scotland, some one's dipping in your pocket and stealing the family silver.
Scotland, free or a desert!