Sooner or later
Imagine Gordon Brown's dilemma. He has to decide when to call the by-election in Glenrothes.
A wicked onlooker might sum up the problem thus: "Is it better to go early and lose - or to go late and lose?"
Of course, Labour might win.
Indeed, should that happen in this constituency which neighbours Mr Brown's own, then the PM's problems would be markedly reduced.
Not removed entirely, but reduced.
If he could be confident of that victory, however, the by-election contest might well be already under way.
As the Scottish play notes, "if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly".
Not a particularly fizzy quotation, I concede, but germane.
However, a swiftly convened conflict was not notably successful in Glasgow East. Or indeed in Crewe. Or indeed in the case of Macbeth.
Tonight Labour will select its candidate for the forthcoming contest.
The shortlist comprises Colin Davidson, a teacher at Bell Baxter; Kezia Dugdale, a Parliamentary researcher; and Lindsay Roy, the rector of Kirkcaldy High.
The favourite? Lindsay Roy - although it is of course up to the local party in Glenrothes to decide.
Should Mr Roy be chosen, expect Labour to dig up comments about him made by the SNP leadership of Fife Council.
Mr Roy was brought in to address problems at Kirkcaldy High identified by HMIE Inspectors.
The council declared their confidence that Gordon Brown's old school would "continue to progress" under the new leadership of Lindsay Roy. They thought him, in short, a good thing. As a rector.
The downside for Labour? Pretty obvious, really. They might well lose. Indeed, most observers reckon they are odds on to get thumped.
Why? Because the swing required for the second placed SNP is less than the party achieved to win Glasgow East. And it's less than the LibDems contrived in their Dunfermline victory.
Plus the SNP took the comparable constituency, Central Fife, at the Holyrood elections last year.
Plus the Nationalists control the council in partnership with the LibDems.
The SNP has selected council leader Peter Grant to contest the seat.
The LibDems are fielding Harry Wills; the Tories Maurice Golden; the SSP Morag Balfour while UKIP go with Dr Kris Seunarine.
The opinion polls, both Scottish and UK, would suggest that Labour is less than popular.
Plus it remains unclear whether the PM will stay away from the by-election, citing (occasionally breached) convention; or lead from the front; or participate visibly in Fife events in his own constituency next door.
Against that? This is a by-election caused by death, not resignation.
Voters tend to be a little less grumpy when the contest is completely inevitable.
Further, Labour is determined to avoid the utter guddle which surrounded their Glasgow East selection.
Still and all, not a set-up designed to delight the PM.
I'm 
Comments
or to comment.