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Merkel's understated triumph

Gavin Hewitt | 17:11 UK time, Sunday, 27 September 2009

Berlin: On the basis of the first exit polls, this looks like a significant victory for Angela Merkel. Her aim was to form a new centre-right coalition and she may well now be able to govern with the help of the pro-business Free Democrats. However, there is likely to be some horse-trading.

Angela Merkel made herself the centre of the campaign. She was more popular than her party and she played up her skills as a good crisis manager in a time of economic crisis. She sensed that Germans wanted consensus; a solid brand of careful politics.

Some in her own party felt she had been too vague during the campaign. She was reluctant to provide detail about how she would handle the economy in the future. She gambled that Germans liked her quiet managerial style. She spoke plainly - some said she sounded like the mother of the nation - telling voters that "we had been living beyond our means", and that that led to the crisis.

If she manages to form a new coalition with the Free Democrats she may well embrace pro-market reforms, most likely lower taxes. It will be a test of where Angela Merkel's true instincts lie.

At the last election in 2005 she spoke out in favour of radical reform, but backed away. Now she has more room to be bold if she chooses. But the message from the past four years, and this campaign, is that Angela Merkel is a pragmatic leader.

As regards the Social Democrats - Angela Merkel's coalition partner for the past four years - they scored their worst result in almost 60 years of politics.

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