Obama presses for Afghan push
Europe never disguised its enthusiasm for President Obama. It serenaded him as a candidate and celebrated his victory. His popularity ratings were higher in Europe than at home.
Then came the cold shower of power. Many of the old problems did not simply disappear with George Bush to Texas. And like presidents before him, Obama - at a critical moment in his presidency - is looking to Europe for help.
Afghanistan has become Obama's war. Soon the number of American troops there will be three times what he inherited. He has taken ownership of the conflict. the American people, however, are weary and unconvinced. Victory is elusive and lurking in the memory is the quagmire of Vietnam.
Europe made a large commitment to Afghanistan. More than 30,000 of its troops are there, although nearly a third come from Britain. Considering the historical reluctance to deploy to conflict areas the numbers were significant. Afghanistan was easier to sell to voters than Iraq. The mission was supported by a UN mandate. Afghanistan's links to the 9/11 attacks were clear, whereas they did not exist in Iraq. So all 26 Nato members joined the mission although by far the largest number of casualties have been suffered by the US, Britain and Canada.
During the past six months support for the war in Afghanistan has ebbed away in Europe. The conflict is perceived as not going well. There is no end in sight. The recent election looked rigged. There is widespread corruption and President Karzai has some ruthless warlords as allies. Women's rights, if anything, have taken a step backwards.So, just a short time ago, the mood in Europe turned towards scaling back or even pulling out.
President Sarkozy captured that mood when he said "not a [French] soldier more" would be sent. However the Obama administration has concluded, after a long and painstaking review, that they cannot walk away. Gen Stanley McChrystal made it clear that without extra troops the mission would "likely result in failure". That would not just be an American failure, it would be a failure for Nato and Europe.
For months Europe has had to wait while President Obama decides. Now he is calling. Brown, Sarkozy, Rasmussen et al are getting the presidential squeeze.
Obama would like 10,000 more troops from Europe. He may get just over 5,000. That would be a victory of sorts, because any extra troops represents a fresh commitment, just when some countries like Canada and the Netherlands have set dates to withdraw.
So in the next few days the president's special representative to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, will be heading to Brussels. Hillary Clinton and Gen McChrystal will be at Nato headquarters by the end of the week.
Britain has already said it will send 500 more troops. There may be pressure to add to that number. Despite President Sarkozy's reluctance, Paris may support sending another 1,000 troops, but to work as trainers. The French papers report an aide to President Sarkozy as saying "we're not saying 'no' to Obama". Italy has indicated it will increase its commitment. Poland may do so as well. The government there is not enthusiastic, but helping Nato is seen as enhancing Poland's long-term security.
So in the coming days President Obama will come calling and learn a lot more about the transatlantic relationship.
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