Great expectations
people, chatted to backstage while the candidate did his last evening rally, seemed genuinely relaxed and cheerful. The fact is that they go to event after event and see enthusiasm and warmth towards the senator - it's a jump ball, they admit, between the three main Democratic candidates - but then they would, as doing well after lowering expectations is what the Iowa game is all about. I think they think he will win big.
Bumped into , who said the Obama campaign reminded him of Clinton in 92: "It is all about YOU the people, doing what you want and giving you the lead and getting your priorities noticed." But Obama also reminds me of Jimmy Carter, in a way - or, indeed, Ronald Reagan or any of the others who have run successful insurgent anti-Washington campaigns; the rhetoric is of the outsider banging at the gates.
Talking of which - I had an enjoyable chat with , who tells me hand on heart that he can win! I cannot decide whether he is a serious candidate or not, but the decision will be made for me (and you) by the caucus-goers of Iowa in a few hours time...
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I think that Ron Paul will surprise quite a lot of people over the coming few weeks Justin. ;-)
He CAN win.
Is he the ONLY chap in D.C that recalls the document that gives him a job has to be adhered to and not just pointed at once in awhile on a campaign stump?
For the love of Pete, this man went to google and told them he opposed the net neutrality laws that most googlites adore. And what is my point?
He does not craft the answer to please the audience instead he crafts his campaign and his voting record (that's a first in this century) to support the Constitution.
I think the real story is that the markers used to rate whether or not he is in the next two debates, of which he has been recently excluded, should be based on the huge amounts of money, online support, grassroots support, converts to the (R) party from all walks of life, and the fact that popular or not he votes with great self control in the areas defined by the U.S Constitution.
His oust is based solely on the polls (which some appear to have not even included his name).
There's a story in there somewhere Justin. If all this is true, there a bang up, bumper car, hold the phone, wait a tick, stop the presses story in there.
I can't wait to read it,
Scott~
A candidate that pulls in 20 million dollars from individuals is definitely a serious candidate.
He's just getting ignored (or laughed at) by the media trying to avoid "rocking the boat" - when that's exactly what Washington needs. Ron Paul will surprise everyone in Iowa and NH.
Barack Obama would like to give the impression that he not only has the qualities of successful past Democratic Presidents but he could also bridge the divide between black and white voters. He is trying to sway the voters with his youth, charm and his black-white ancestry but is America really ready for an inexperienced Senator who has still so much to learn. Hilary has far more wisdom and will not be rash: all her actions will be thoughtfully executed. Iowa may be a close call but Hilary will eventually come up trumps.
A candidate that pulls in 20 million dollars from individuals is definitely a serious candidate.
He's just getting ignored (or laughed at) by the media trying to avoid "rocking the boat" - when that's exactly what Washington needs. Ron Paul will surprise everyone in Iowa and NH.
I think senator obama is the clear winner in the campaigns leading to Iowa and the result will reflect in the election result yet to be released.
He has the appeal conviction and confidence and can be the president who can take america back to it's right full place in global affairs.
I sincerely hope that Barack Obama wins the Iowa caucuses and the Americans put him in The White House.
Having read his memoir "Dreams From My Father" he certainly seems to have had enough life experience to be able to understand the concerns of ordinary Americans and (more importantly for the rest of us) the wider issues of what concerns the peoples living outside America.
I know a lot of Americans like President Bush but he has undeniably proved a huge force of negativity around the globe. So I think Barack Obama is the man to repair America's reputation on the world stage and solve the crisis that face all of us.
To echo Oprah: "we need Barack Obama". That's not just true of America but true of the world.
Anyway, I had Michael Moore's circular yesterday, which strongly suggests he's going to be endorsing John Edwards. I doubt if his opinion will have any major impact on the campaign but he finished by sayng that he wasn't an Iowa voter but is appreciative of any state that names a town after a sofa.
Of course he's a serious candidate!! Every single one of his views will appeal to different sorts of people across the country, and across the world! No candidate will unite across the spectrum like he does. And whilst Obama and Hilary raised $100 for the year, and RP only raised just over a quarter of that, he practically matched them for 4th quarter fundraising. His 4th quarter total went up by 300%, and he had 2 massive fundraising days, one of which was the largest 1 day fundraising event IN AMERICAN POLITICAL HISTORY.
Please do us a favour Justin and start talking about this guy more. I want to hear his name on your Ö÷²¥´óÐã news report tonight please - opinion polls are not the be all and end all: John Kerry was polling poorly in 2004 before winning many primaries. This guy will rock the boat and when you are forced to mention his successes tomorrow your Ö÷²¥´óÐã audience/readers will ask why you haven't mentioned him that much before.
you've mentioned ron paul in a blog - get ready for a tidal wave of comments... lol
On the democrats side it would seem that in Iowa only John Edwards can realistically come away with a victory - for the simple reason he's not expected to win or even come second - so if he does then he's got momentum. If either Clinton or Obama win then it would seem that it's more likely to be seen as meeting expectations and unless the margin is significant it'll still be pretty much where it is now.. I think we're more likely to still have a (closer) three way race this time tomorrow (presuming none of them whoop like Howard Dean).
Ron Paul is not a serious candidate. He recently said the American civil war could have been avoided if the North had simply purchased all of the slaves in the South and set them free. The more you learn about him the less desirable he becomes.
I think that whatever the result of the Iowa and New Hampshire caucases Obama will be the democratic candidate. Hillary is definately not Bill and she comes across as ruthless and remote. An example of this is her camp spreading scandel rumours about Obama illustrates whats she is capable of, coupled with her support then opposition of Bush proves she will do / say anything for votes. I just dont trust her.
But why must a candidate "pull in $20m" to be taken seriously?
Surely what he says and what he stands for should be enough....
But why must a candidate "pull in $20m" to be taken seriously?
Surely what he says and what he stands for should be enough....
He CAN win.
Is he the ONLY chap in D.C that recalls the document that gives him a job has to be adhered to and not just pointed at once in awhile on a campaign stump?
For the love of Pete, this man went to google and told them he opposed the net neutrality laws that most googlites adore. And what is my point?
He does not craft the answer to please the audience instead he crafts his campaign and his voting record (that's a first in this century) to support the Constitution.
I think the real story is that the markers used to rate whether or not he is in the next two debates, of which he has been recently excluded, should be based on the huge amounts of money, online support, grassroots support, converts to the (R) party from all walks of life, and the fact that popular or not he votes with great self control in the areas defined by the U.S Constitution.
His oust is based solely on the polls (which some appear to have not even included his name).
There's a story in there somewhere Justin. If all this is true, there a bang up, bumper car, hold the phone, wait a tick, stop the presses story in there.
I can't wait to read it,
Scott~
As others have already noted Ron Paul is not getting the same exposure as the 'serious' Romney, Huckabee or McCain--despite their constant reversing of positions and their spotty fundraising records.
But his supporters are fooling themselves if they think he can be the GOP nominee--the outcomes are dtermined by the party apparatchiks and the money men, not the citizen.
Ron Paul's postion on Iraq is rational and completely at odds with the rest of the GOP who need to saddle the Democrats with that problem. The rest of his platform is radical libertarian--e.g. the GOP doesn't actually want to get rid of the IRS,just taxes on the wealthiest, They need the middle class taxes to siphon off for their own interests, just as they have been doing so voraciously since 2001. Ron Paul's principled postion on Iraq kills his chances of GOP. support and his vocal libertarian base isn't big enough to sway the real decision makers in the GOP political infrastructure.
BTW..I'm glad you noted how unrepresentative the caucus system is but it would be helpful if you kept mentioning it as the media CW in general keeps buying into the fiction that it really matters ( instead of it mattering in the abstract sense.
Hey, I live in the town that's named after a sofa, and it's actually named after a colonel, not a sofa! My husband and I are caucusing tonight. We have been completely torn between Barack and Ron Paul, and even now are wavering as to which caucus we will attend. The fact that the Republican caucus takes only twenty minutes or so, and the Democratic caucus takes two hours has swayed us towards voting for Ron Paul. But the fact that we really want Barack Obama and not Hillary as a candidate is pulling us towards the Democratic caucus, which I think is where we will end up going this evening. We have a baby-sitter lined up and everything.
If caucus results were based on political signs put up by supporters, Ron Paul would win the Republican caucus (in Davenport, anyway) by a landslide. He has by far more signs up around town than any other candidate. I think this suggests that he has a stronger base of support than the other Republican hopefuls, who are probably supported mostly by people who are unable to commit to a sign on their lawn and might change their mind at the last moment.
He CAN win.
Is he the ONLY chap in D.C that recalls the document that gives him a job has to be adhered to and not just pointed at once in awhile on a campaign stump?
For the love of Pete, this man went to google and told them he opposed the net neutrality laws that most googlites adore. And what is my point?
He does not craft the answer to please the audience instead he crafts his campaign and his voting record (that's a first in this century) to support the Constitution.
I think the real story is that the markers used to rate whether or not he is in the next two debates, of which he has been recently excluded, should be based on the huge amounts of money, online support, grassroots support, converts to the (R) party from all walks of life, and the fact that popular or not he votes with great self control in the areas defined by the U.S Constitution.
His oust is based solely on the polls (which some appear to have not even included his name).
There's a story in there somewhere Justin. If all this is true, there a bang up, bumper car, hold the phone, wait a tick, stop the presses story in there.
I can't wait to read it,
Scott~
It's a sunny day here in Iowa so expect a record turnout except for the Republicans, I sense a lack of enthusiasm amongst most. Romney will get his people to the polls because he's well organized, but since the weather is good Huckabee should eek it out with the enthusiasm of his supporters. Ron Paul has enthusiastic supporters, but they are not centralized at all making it virtually impossible for him to win an actual state. The Democratic Race is endlessly fascinating. I expect Obama to win if, big IF, he can get young people off their couches and to the polls, which is absolutely impossible to predict. Obama also may benefit from the 15% rule, Kucinich followers will have to switch to him, and I expect him to get some Dodd, Biden, and Richardson followers as well because many of them are 'anti-establishment' people, and few of them have a chance of reaching 15% most places. Clinton's the establishment figure. Her star is going down and she knows it, she's winning in national polls because she's the 'inevitable,' if she looses Iowa, there could be a snow ball effect. But she courts an older more reliable crowd, so she'll always be in the running. Edwards is very capable of an upset, his supporters caucus. But Iowa is a must win for him, he's nearly out of money. And if he's gone that's bad for Clinton again, because those are 'anti-establishment' people so they'll most likely shift to Obama in the later states.
I predict Ron Paul will finish 3rd in Iowa.
What about a blog about why the Ö÷²¥´óÐã and other news organisations refuse to cover Ron Paul's campaign? The media should not be deciding who we should or should not be listening too.
I am supporting Bill richardson. Even if he doesnt win the nomination ( i dont think he will) i do think he will play a key role in a democratic administration. possibly VP because of his hispanic connection or as secretary of state. What do you think justin
Yes, Ö÷²¥´óÐã, please talk more about Ron Paul. He means what he says, just like he told you that he'll win. can't you tell by how many people here who are extremely enthusastic about him? forget about the elections happened before how edgy candidates wouldn't make far etc. people in the US have been hurt ENOUGH over the years. this time WILL be different, which is the people are working hard to choose who they believe in the most. a few hours ago, both me and my fiance changed our party affiliation from D & In to R. why? because we want to vote for Ron Paul. we want to make sure every step is smooth for him to step in the office eventually.
the ONLY concern we have is Dr. Paul's safety as his support is growing like nobody's ever seen before. i really hope that Ron Paul's staff team will keep him protected from those evil seeds. the US cannot afford to lose such a hope for the nation.
Obama has a great story but not a great record.
He has the gift of being able to make people feel good, but, will they feel good when he has to actually perform and they find out he has no experience performing?
Seems my post went up three times, feel free to leave the first one up.
Tim- Ron Paul did say we could have freed the slaves without as much bloodshed just as many other countries did. Make it illegal and then pay for the slaves to be free.
His voting record and not his opinion about the civil war is far more important.
This is the type of distraction to the core ideal of liberty.
Answer this question Tim, Ron Paul swore to uphold that Constitution, Where does the Constitution authorize global offensive war, and the removal of habeas corpus, the ever expanding and wasteful government?
Ron Paul's policies are the result of sheer common sense. I'm glad to hear Ron Paul has belief privately, becasue the rest of the 'revolution' has nothing but out right determined support for the one guy in the Republican party who has the gaul to openly talk about America's financial crisis. Monetary policy and fiscal conservatism (balanced budgets) are at the heart of the solution.
I watched your report this Wednesday past, about Iowa, and the opening interview was revealing that Americans are trully worried about the increasing authorotarianist federal government and overall US finacial obligations which now stand at $70 trillion. As the chap said, the US is at cross roads, it will take an enlightened peoples to take the choice the founding fathers took and judging by the research I have done and the sheer numbers attending the Ron Paul meet ups and the growth these meetups have, the good Doctor just might pull this off.
Scottliberty-
Nowhere in my post did I mention that global offensive wars or the removal of habeas corpus are good ideas. First of all, I'm a Democrat and loathe the current occupant of the white house. Secondly, Ron Paul's opinion on the civil war is important since it displays a lack of knowledge of history and a simplistic view of very complex situation. (Hint: making slavery illegal would have led to the South seceeding since their entire economy was based on slavery.) Ron Paul is a lot of flash with very little substance to back it up and his libertarian ideas would be a disaster for this country. And by the way, George W. Bush also swore to uphold the Constitution. So has every other president. That doesn't mean that they always do.
I was interested to see that Ron Paul had secured 10% of the Republican Vote at Iowa. This senior US politician appears to have captured the financial problems facing all Americans. The Debt based economy of living beyond ones means is going to catch up with all of us, so it is refreshing to hear a US Republican telling us all to stop unnecessary spending. Perhaps all those Americans who are about to see their properties devalue or even repossessed, should get behind Ron Paul and vote him up in New Hampshire and beyond, all the way to the White House. Some logic at last!!
I am British but am following the US presidential election with keen interest. Let me straight away declare myself as a Mitt Romney fan. Both in Iowa and New Hampshire he has taken "Silver" not gold. This is not a negative. Rather he has already shown consistant appeal across the board in 2 states. Both these states had different victors. So therefore you could argue that Huckabee & McCain do not appeal to the majority voters, but Romney has. If the US is looking for a leader that appeals to a large cross section of its society,surely Romney is it. When all the votes are added, I think being a consistant Silver winner,instead of peaks and falls may pay dividends. Come on Mitt to win!!