Only politics
WASHINGTON DC: While all the fuss on the Republican side is focused on the crazies in the world of talk radio, there are other Republicans sharpening their knives. People like Dick Armey - the former leader of the party in the House of Representatives - who tells me the anti-McCain forces are small and have nowhere to go.
Armey - an affable Texan - really does see the McCain ascendency as a chance to see off the people he thinks have damaged the party: the Bill Frists, the Tom DeLays, in fact all the forces of social conservatism who hijacked the party in the early part of the century. I wonder whether the "civil war" might be rather short and easily won by Armey and those of his opinion - there is something rather unserious about people who want to prosecute the war in Iraq but will vote for Mrs Clinton in a hissy fit brought on by dislike of the senator from Arizona.
By the way, thanks to Alex for the (long) thought-provoking post on Obama. I am thinking about it: I must say, the news that Mrs Clinton is reaching in her own pocket does make you wonder whether she is as in control of events as Mark Penn et al would have us believe. I am interested too in what Tyson P says about votes counting this time - a fair point that democracy is actually about arguments as well as the coming together to get things done stuff. Carol Felton seems to think I don’t like Hillary (I thought we were in her pay or something) which just goes to show that it is possible to upset Democrats of all stripes without trying to...
I like of the hypocrisy of some of McCain's critics. And this on the ability of political parties and individuals within them to kiss and make-up when necessary.
Armey told me a great story about two Republican ladies who had a fist-fight over Bush senior and Reagan when they were battling it out in the late seventies. Then, when the fuss was settled and Reagan picked Bush as his VP, all was smiles and the two ladies were best of friends.
It is only politics.
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A: "Won't vote for McCain because he isn't 'conservative enough'."
B: "Won't vote for Clinton because she is a woman."
C: "Won't vote for Obama because he is black."
--each makes as much sense as
D: "Will vote for the inarticulate C-student because he will let us religious activists run amuck."
Notwithstanding the sanctity of One Person One Vote, after eight years of D above, the last thing America needs is another election where 'activists'--religious or racial--hold the deciding votes.
1 Four years is too long to live through another mistake.
2 What if the four-year mistake again turns into eight?
Just an observation no one seems to really mention - a fairly substantial number of the votes went to candidates who had dropped out - as a result of early voting. For instance Huckabee won in Tennessee - but only by about 15,000. 15,000 voted for Fred Thompson before he dropped out. These votes get thrown out. The same thing happened with Edwards. Given that clinton and obama are neck-in-neck this may make the difference...
As much as I dislike Dick Armey, I have to agree with him. While Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and other right-wing hacks complain that McCain isn't conservative enough does anyone really believe that they will vote for the Democratic ticket or not vote at all? The fact that conservative Christian leaders who opposed McCain are "re-assessing" him shows their hypocracy. When push comes to shove their ideals don't mean much, they just want a Republican in the White House.
My sources (Time Magazine actually) tell me that Mitt Romney is to drop out of the race for The White House.
Were I American, I doubt I'd have voted for Romney but surely Mike Huckabee should have done the honourable thing and dropped out of the race so as to pool the conservative vote to one candidate.
Justin,
How do you think we should interpret the bookies' reaction to Super Tuesday?
Odds shortening for McCain (now the overall favorite) and Obama, but drifting for Clinton.
A weak signal, the verdict of the incorruptible market forces, a mere reflection of consumer demand, or just plain flocking behaviour?
J. Tanner, Rome
Hi Justin,
First of all, thanks for the coverage of the primary season. Your blog has been very informative. It is necessary to have an outsider's perspective on the ground there, the US media being so twisted sometimes. It is now clear that the democratic nomination will drag out for another 40 or more days, the republicans have by and large chosen their candidate, although their party have a slimmer chance of winning in november even with conservatives making half the country. They will perhaps still make it if the democrats remain such an undecided lot, with spilt between women and men, educated white and blue collars, hispanic, white and black, young and old, all under the democratic umbrella! For sure, it is now going to be either of the two men, Barack or McCain, or Hillary as the next president. Barack O is not just a flash in the pan, as we have seen from the popular vote he got on super tuesday, but his financial advantage with large sum of money collected and his crowds at rallies, etc. explain that it is a real candidacy he has with people who truly believe in him. But does he have what we need right now from the next american president, for he rarely talks policy, the difficult problems being 1. restoring the economy which is already plunged into recession like in 1992, 2. restoring American image and standing in the world, by easing tension especially with muslim world, 3. end the war in Iraq, which is very difficult to do, 4. bring some credibility to the white house by making real difference in the American people’s life, all that is possible if the next president is a woman, I believe, not another cowboy! We don’t need a maverick, a racial alternative, another ‘male,’ me saying so without any gender bias! Barack is the youthful alternative, but sorry to say that at this point in time, he is the wrong one, because the timing is wrong. I trust the change in the oval office as a woman takes over, for the first time, and with it, change will be happening, for America and the world at large. We have to have the first woman President, and then judge, not before! Let’s trust that in the end, America will make the right choice this time! Patience will be necessary.
Woohoo! My first hat-tip on Ö÷²¥´óÐã. Thanks Justin.
It's all but certain at this point that McCain will be the Republican nominee, with Romney dropping out today. Huckabee is a likable guy, but his appeal is going to be limited, even in a two-person race.
I think that this will put pressure on Clinton and Obama to seal the deal. Overall the fight on the Democrat side has been good for the party. Frankly, with two strong candidates it has drawn a lot of "ordinary people's" attention and curiosity. Just look at the super Tuesday votes, 14.4 million D to 8.7 million R.
So for now it's just fine for everyone (except some media who are impatient and want a coronation) that the D race is in flux. But at some point finances become an issue.
How disappointing for Justin Webb to describe other journalists and commentators as 'crazies' just because he doesn't agree with them. He is a commentator too. He has his own biases, just like Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, et al. The difference between them and Justin Webb is: they admit their biases, then argue for them. Justin Webb pretends to be neutral. This is dishonest. For example, he talks of social conservatives "hijacking" the Republican party. You know, like terrorists do to planes. That kind of language doesn't allow for the possibility that, like other factions within other political parties, they may have just won the argument at the time.
I can't speak for other countries' politics, but the U.S. political arena is like professional wrestling. In the ring, it's no holds barred and flying body slams off the high turnbuckle. Once the bell rings, at least in the same party, it's "no hard feelings" and "how are the kids, then?" Ideology seems to be a litmus test during the primaries, then it's all about party line.
I believe if McCain wins the GOP nomination, we'll see the party ideology take a subtle swing in his direction-at least the ideology portrayed at the convention. He becomes their man, for better or worse. I can't imagine hardline right-wingers jumping to the dems at the thought of a moderate in their midst.
As for the Democratic loser accepting an olive branch in the form of a VP nomination, how will that play out? There are many young dems willing to vote a black-woman ticket (or vice-versa), but is the rest of the party ready for that? Is that a case of too much too soon? Racism and sexism aside, isn't that a step input into the psyche of the traditional voting bloc? Many of us look to the day when these things won't matter, but in American politics, they still do. The dems may need to find a Lloyd Bentsen clone to provide the settling bromide for nervous voters in the fall.
Mr. Webb, it is apparent that you have lost your balance in covering the elections, at least as a journalist, you ought to keep your feelings to your self. I have been reading your follow ups through primaries, and I must say you have sided with Obama. As a journalist you may provoke, but do not give a free advertising to anobody, not even to Mr Obama. Hillary is a respectable candidate, and she shall be judged respectively, in the same fashion Mr Obama is treated.
Mrs. Clinton had the overall lead of delegates and so-called superdelegates — Democrats who are governors, senators and party leaders, according to an analysis by The New York Times. Mrs. Clinton had 892 delegates and Mr. Obama 716; the Democratic nomination requires support from 2,025 delegates. The Times counts only delegates that have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences.
How disappointing for Justin Webb to describe other journalists and commentators as 'crazies' just because he doesn't agree with them. He is a commentator too. He has his own biases, just like Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, et al. The difference between them and Justin Webb is: they admit their biases, then argue for them. Justin Webb pretends to be neutral. This is dishonest. For example, he talks of social conservatives "hijacking" the Republican party. You know, like terrorists do to planes. That kind of language doesn't allow for the possibility that, like other factions within other political parties, they may have just won the argument at the time.
I can't speak for other countries' politics, but the U.S. political arena is like professional wrestling. In the ring, it's no holds barred and flying body slams off the high turnbuckle. Once the bell rings, at least in the same party, it's "no hard feelings" and "how are the kids, then?" Ideology seems to be a litmus test during the primaries, then it's all about party line.
I believe if McCain wins the GOP nomination, we'll see the party ideology take a subtle swing in his direction-at least the ideology portrayed at the convention. He becomes their man, for better or worse. I can't imagine hardline right-wingers jumping to the dems at the thought of a moderate in their midst.
As for the Democratic loser accepting an olive branch in the form of a VP nomination, how will that play out? There are many young dems willing to vote a black-woman ticket (or vice-versa), but is the rest of the party ready for that? Is that a case of too much too soon? Racism and sexism aside, isn't that a step input into the psyche of the traditional voting bloc? Many of us look to the day when these things won't matter, but in American politics, they still do. The dems may need to find a Lloyd Bentsen clone to provide the settling bromide for nervous voters in the fall.
Hi. I am a little confused as to why Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are consistantly regarded as having no chance to contest for the Republican nomination, and that with Romney's withdrawl, that effectively leaves the way open for McCain. Is there not the possibility that Romney's supporters could choose either Mr Paul or Mr Huckabee? Or am I completely misundertstanding the US Primary system?
HK: Hear, hear!
Hi Justin,
First of all, thanks for the coverage of the primary season. Your blog has been very informative. It is necessary to have an outsider's perspective on the ground there, the US media being so twisted sometimes. It is now clear that the democratic nomination will drag out for another 40 or more days, the republicans have by and large gotten their candidate, now with Mitt Romney out, although their party have a slimmer chance of winning in november even with conservatives making half the country. They will perhaps still make it if the democrats remain long such an undecided lot, with spilt between women and men, educated white and blue collars, hispanic, white and black, young and old, all under the democratic umbrella! For sure, it is now going to be either of the two men, Barack or McCain, or Hillary as the next president. Barack O is not just a flash in the pan, as we have seen from the popular vote he got on super tuesday, but his financial advantage with a large sum of money collected and his crowds at rallies, etc. explain that it is a real candidacy he has with people who truly believe in him. But does he have what we need right now from the next american president, for he rarely talks policy, the difficult problems being 1. restoring the economy which is already plunged into recession like in 1992, 2. restoring American image and standing in the world, by easing tension especially with muslim world, 3. end the war in Iraq, which is very difficult to do and requires experience and toughness, 4. and bring some credibility to the white house by making real difference in the American people’s life, all that is possible if the next president is a woman. I believe a woman is what we need in the oval office right now, not another cowboy! We don’t need a maverick, a new kid on the block, a racial alternative. Barack is the youthful alternative, but sorry to say that at this point in time, he is the wrong one, because the timing is wrong. Let’s trust that in the end, America will make the right choice this time! Patience will be necessary.
Hi Rich. Ron Paul certainly has no chance, he's only managed to gather 14 delegates and has won 0 states. However if the conservatives out of spite to McCain decided to gather en masse behind Huckabee then he might have a chance, admittedly a very slim one. According to the Ö÷²¥´óÐã, McCain has 701 delegates which puts him well over halfway to the target of 1,191 delegates. Huckabee only has 195 delegates so he's a long way behind.
I think it's silly for the press to paint such a picture of "civil war" in the Republican party--who have chosen a clear favorite--while the Democratic party tears itself in half. They keep digging up Republicans who say "I hates McCain" while the only Democrats we see are ones who say "gosh I wish we could have both Hillary and Obama
Hillary's negatives resulted in Obama's success, not an overabundance of love among Democrats. McCain's (sometimes comparable) negatives have done much less damage.