Thinking about a revolution
I have seen on the Cuba situation. Those who expect things to carry on much as they are for years to come may well be making a big mistake.
My colleague Kevin Connolly - a former Ö÷²¥´óÐã correspondent in Warsaw and Moscow - was pointing within moments of the Castro news breaking, to the fact that many people thought the eastern bloc could carry on with the junior reformer crowd in charge, after the real masters had left the stage.
It does not happen. That is what history tells us. Barack, Hillary, and John need to give serious thought to what to do if Cuba implodes.
Actually, maybe Hillary - that is unless she pulls something out of the bag in the CNN debate on Thursday night as .
Meanwhile, does anyone have an answer for Boy on the subject of democracy and Pakistan?
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Please ask your IT techies to sort out the posting system. It takes ages to post and then a message "Error 502 - Service Not Available" appears yet sometimes the post ends up on site anyway. I'm sure I'm not the only one this happens to.
I see the situation in Pakistan as a very fragile one: a war-torn country who is improvising and deciding a framework for its country in a chaotic environment. The distractions and dangers are so great for Pakistan.
When the U.S. wrote its constitution 250+ yrs ago, there weren't suicide bombers and wire tapping. Paintings depict our forefathers out on the quiet countryside thinking, writing and debating.
When East Germany was faced with its recourse in 1989, it wasn't in the middle of a bloody war. The GDR would find itself surrounded mostly by strong stable democracies, who truly wanted to see a positive outcome. And still, there was fear that East Germany could fall into danger.
Aggressors find opportunity in disorder and so long that violence continues in Pakistan , I see it as a very difficult situation for nurturing a young democracy. If and when peace does come to Pakistan, resentments over past afflictions will continually incite new conflicts. This history of bad-blood will haunt the country for generations and provide political figures launching platforms for machines of hate.
In answer to Boy- US will be pally towards whoever is in charge of Pakistan as long as they seem to bring stability (note not justice or democracy). That's because Pakistan is a nuclear power...
With regards to Cuba the big question is whether to remove the embargo- if they do the Cuban regime may well crumble very quickly indeed- as the state won't be able to blame the outside world for their problems. Of course saying this before the elections might be suicide for any of the candidates (Obama/Clinton/McCain soft on communism etc....)
I think Hillary should do just what Eminem did in his rap contest in 8 mile. Throw everything at herself that Barack is likely to throw at her, or that everyone else is throwing at her, and confront it with disarming, engaging honesty.
She doesnt have the same charisma. She is married into the democratic and white house establishment. She has supported or initiated policies that didnt work. Etc, etc.
But does it mean that she cant effect "change"? Someone who understands the levers of power, and has made mistakes, is almost certainly more likely to get things right than an idealistic visionary. Change takes place through the "capillaries" of power and needs a scalpel, not an axe.
What will be important is that in a presidential role, whoever wins will have to establish new mechanisms to listen to ordinary needs...and to hold themselves accountable to such needs. I havent heard this from any of the candidates.
But strategically, to win, I think she should make herself the focus of her campaign, not him.
" Barack, Hillary, and John need to give serious thought to what to do if Cuba implodes."
Yes, I'm sure they are all well aware of that potencial crisis. But lets take a step back. Something may verry well happen before the end of the year, and in that case Bush will have to respond to it (I hope it doesn't go this way, but it may). But if it indeed holds off until next year, the winner will cross that bridge when they come to it.
First things first:
1 - get your party's nomination.
2 - Win the Presidential election.
3 - Consitrate on building the best team possible.
4 - Get to grips with the main concerns of the American people.
6 - Dicide on how to best relate with other significant world players - China - Europe - India - Russia - etc.
7 - Worry abou security of oil and other essential import.
8 - What to do about the American legacy in the Middle East.
9 - Have a good night sleep and leave countires like Cuba sort themselves out - if they can!
In other words lots and lots is happening and will continue to happen both inside the U.S.A. between now and November, none of which is the resposibility of the next President.
Re: Thinking About A Revolution - consider Justin Webb's source, the very conservative and ever-hopeful for a pro-capitalist revolution Bloomberg media.
It is doubtful that Fidel Castro would have surrendered power to Raul or to anyone else if he thought that his revolution was in jeopardy by doing so. Of course I could be wrong, but I'm very inclined to believe that the Castro revolutionaries are still much in control in Cuba. Things may change over the long haul but probably very little in the short term