Parallel Realities
There was a sense of unreality during much of today's marathon debate on the Justice Bill. We had plenty of discussion of SDLP and Ulster Unionist objections to the Sinn Fein DUP deal on a future Justice department. We had the SDLP suggesting December 7th as the date for the transfer of powers. But there seemed little or no acknowledgment of the general belief that the devolution of justice is balanced on a knife edge.
Outside the chamber, in the corridors and the canteen, the chat has all been about whether things could go - as Sinn Fein's Declan Kearney put it - into freefall. DUP politicians aren't happy that the Chief Constable has ruled out the wriggle room they were hoping for in relation to the future employment of individual members of the full time reserve.
Both republicans and unionists talk about the possibility of the transfer of powers not being agreed before Christmas and a breakdown leading to an early Assembly poll. One source even suggested that the knock on impact could be a failure to implement the planned restructuring of local government which might in turn lead to an early council election.
At the same time, you have to remember that before any of the big deals in the past there have always been peaks and troughs. Parties tend to throw shapes or talk up breakdowns as a way of putting pressure on others.
Sinn Fein are undoubtedly angry about the failure of the DUP to move forwards. An early election would give them a chance to give the SDLP a bloody nose at a time when SDLP activists are concentrating on who their future leader should be. It would also punish the DUP by handing the TUV a gilt edged opportunity.
But as the UUP's Alan McFarland predicted during tonight's debate, it's also likely to lead to a three way split in unionism and Martin McGuinness as First Minister. That might appear appealing to Sinn Fein, but they know unionists will probably refuse to play ball and demand a complete renegotiation of the system. Sinn Fein will have to calculate whether bringing that on is in their interests.
Either way the British and Irish governments are increasingly concerned about the failure to make more progress. Shaun Woodward's decision to urge church and business leaders to make their voices heard seemed curious - some leaders may heed his call, but if they do the DUP is likely to explain it away as an NIO organised intervention. Micheál Martin is at Stormont on Wednesday meeting the First and Deputy First. He will no doubt be joining the Secretary of State as a cheerleader for a breakthrough.
Later in the week many of the our ministers (with the exception of Margaret Ritchie who has picked the Assembly's Downpatrick roadshow over Jersey) will be off to the British Irish Council meeting, which is discussing minority languages. Last time I attended a BIC meeting in Jersey the hosts gave us all bags of Jersey potatoes as gifts (which I think were confiscated on our return). We all know devolution of justice is a hot potato, but has Stormont had its chips?
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