In The Mix
I'm in the office at 23:00 having made my way back to work for our late TV news on Ö÷²¥´óÐã1. Gordon Brown's decision to signal his intention to stand down, coupled with the Liberal Democrats move into talks with Labour, was a potential game changer so far as our local MPs are concerned. Suddenly the arithmetic adds up for them being a part of a "rainbow coalition".
The supposed winning margin, of course, is 326. In fact, given that 5 Sinn Fein MPs will refuse to take their seats, the actual margin is 324 (CORRECTION: that should be 323).
As things stand Labour and the Liberal Democrats in coalition would have 315 seats. But if they were able to rely on the support of all the 13 Northern Ireland MPs who will take their seats then that number would rise to 328. That's above the winning margin, however you calculate it.
Of course Labour and the Liberal Democrats could seek support from the single Green, the 6 SNP or the 3 Plaid Cymru. But there's no doubt our local MPs are very much in the mix.
As already reported on this blog, during Sunday's Inside Politics both Naomi Long and Ian Paisley Junior pioneered the notion of the 13 local MPs forming a coherent group negotiating to defend Northern Ireland's block grant. This line of argument was revisited during
In addition (even though as abstentionists Sinn Fein don't have much leverage) Gerry Adams held a brief meeting this afternoon to discuss defending the block grant with Margaret Ritchie and David Ford - the two unionist leaders sent their apologies. It's thought the same topic will be up for discussion when the Stormont Executive meets on Thursday.
Of course the parties may pull in different directions. The SDLP, for example, raised their support for proportional representation at Westminster elections during Deputy First Minister's questions. I'm not sure where the others stand on this , although it seems that if we had an AV system it would obviate the need for any electoral pacts (something the SDLP would no doubt find a relief).
However on economic matters the different party manifestoes had plenty of overlaps.
As things stand the 3 SDLP MPs will back Labour. So, probably, would the independent unionist Sylvia Hermon. Alliance's Naomi Long stresses that she's not going to formally take the Liberal Democrat whip but her inclinations will probably be to back her sister party.
That leaves the 8 DUP MPs. In the last parliament they voted more than 90% of the time with the Conservatives, and held talks with the Tories at the start of the year at Hatfield House. But of course we've had a bruising election campaign since then in which the DUP and the Conservatives and Unionists traded blows, and David Cameron made some not so very veiled comments about the Robinsons, saying his candidates not be a "swish family". Not only that but on the very eve of the election Gordon Brown wrote to the DUP leader assuring him there would be no cuts to the Stormont block grant during this financial year.
Put that together and who would bet against the DUP being happy to help give the Conservatives a bloody nose? Especially if Labour and the Liberal Democrats came up with the requisite financial assurances.
That said, tonight there's evidence that not all Labour politicians are happy about anything which might smack of pork barrel politics. The former Northern Ireland Secretary John Reid argued that a "rainbow coalition" would be disastrous because any deals with Scottish and Northern Irish politicians would convince English voters that they would have to bear the brunt of any future cuts. Earlier in the evening I heard Labour's Diane Abbott joking that if Scottish MPs demanded "building bridges to nowhere", she would demand a bridge in Hackney.
And of course there are those comments of recent days from Ken Clarke, Lord Ashdown and George Howarth implying that a deal with some Northern Ireland politicians would be unthinkable. Although as Ian Paisley Junior replied, they may be about to find out that beggars can't be choosers.
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