Mulling it over
Maybe it's sleep deprivation, but I'm having difficulty getting my head around all the many implications of last night's drama. So if this is a bit disjointed apologies. But here goes.
1. Things will probably move more quickly within the UUP than the DUP. The experiment with the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionists was a big gamble which didn't pay off. Sir Reg looks like he will be gone by the start of next week. UNCUNF should have concentrated their forces on potential targets rather than getting distracted by the volcano disrupted Tory VIP visits.
I began to smell a rat in South Antrim when I was gathering material for my TV constituency profile. I had a lot of trouble pinning Sir Reg down to a time to film him on the stump with voters. I was utterly bewildered - if it's your number one target surely you would be hitting the streets all day every day?
2. Something about the UCUNF debacle reminds me of the infamous "Simply British" campaign. It assumed that all unionists have an absolute attachment to everything British and place their passion for the union above everything. Hence when the DUP talked of negotiating on behalf of the people of Ulster, UCUNF accused them of being closet nationalists. But many DUP supporters may have shrugged - what's wrong with a bit of Ulster nationalism, if you are looking after your own? Making an Ulster politician a cabinet minister might be great for the politician, but what's in it for us voters?
3. Peter Robinson has shown limpet like qualities in clinging to power. One of the problems the DUP faces in embarking on any transition is that the staff at DUP HQ are all inextricably linked to Mr Robinson. And there's no one sharpening their knives to come for the leader. Nevertheless does the DUP want to go into next year's Assembly election campaign with a leader carrying so much baggage? Nigel Dodds may be reluctant to take over the helm, but how about an arrangement where he is the Westminster leader and Arlene Foster reprises her previous very succesful cameo as First Minister? Maybe not next week, nor even the week after, but some time before the party has to hit the campaign trail again.
4. Unity looks tempting to unionists when they reflect on results in places like North Belfast and Upper Bann, where Sinn Fein is on the march, and the possibility of Martin McGuinness becoming First MInister next year. But many Ulster Unionists still nurse bruises from the rough times after the Good Friday Agreement. The Conservative escape route may have been closed off, but will the UUP edge closer to the DUP or just become a decreasing rump?
5. The SDLP only got 1.3% of the vote more than UCUNF, but in a first past the post election there's all the difference in the world between 3 MPs and 0 MPs. Sinn Fein will criticise the SDLP for imperilling Fermanagh and South Tyrone but Margaret Ritchie will be happy with her first outing as leader. Sinn Fein insist that abstentionism will never be abandoned. But if Fianna Fail entered politics here in the future at a council or Assembly level and abstained from Westminster simply by not standing could that change the equation?
6. The TUV, as I said on air overnight, was the "dog that didn't bark". It's hard to see Jim Allister soldiering on if it looks as if he could be a one man band in a future Assembly. However the TUV did have enough bite to contribute to Peter Robinson's demise - David Vance's 1,856 votes helped cost Mr Robinson his Westminster job.
7. Alliance's result was stunning. But is this the start of a trend or a localised phenomenon built around the vibrant candidacy of Naomi Long? At a Slugger O'Toole breakfast this morning someone argued that there mignt be a move towards cross community politics exemplified by the Mayor's result in East Belfast plus Alasdair McDonnell garnering unionist votes in the south of the city. I'd acknowledge that in addition to the Alec Maskey vote Dr McDonnell picked up support from across the spectrum.
That said, before anyone can talk about a real growth in cross community politics let's see the East Belfast replicated elsewhere. And let's see some serious attempt to address the Stormont rules which put "other" MLAs on a lesser footing than their nationalist and unionist counterparts.
8. Given the hung parliament our local parties may still play a part especially if the Conservative and Liberal Democrat talks run into trouble. Here's a little conundrum - the Conservatives are resisting proportional representation, but if that had applied last night the Conservative and Unionist experiment would not have fared so badly, as they took more than 15% of the vote.
9. I'm tired - and Radio 5 wants me on at 6.30 am. Better sign off.
I'm 
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