Bounce or No Bounce?
We just had an interesting discussion on Ö÷²¥´óÐã Radio Ulster about what implications, if any, the Irish election results will have for the Stormont assembly poll in May. The UUP's Basil McCrea worries that Sinn Fein's success will have "huge implications". But neither the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson nor the SDLP's Conall McDevitt agreed - Conall pointed out that, in South Belfast, no-one had ever raised southern politics on the doorstep with him. Conall argued that, in opposition, Sinn Fein would prove largely an irrelevance, whilst the other northern parties should seek to build a strong partnership with the incoming Irish government.
Sinn Fein, no doubt, will regard that as sour grapes. The TV cameras will now inevitably follow Gerry Adams and the other Sinn Fein TDs as they take their seats, a handy bit of publicity in the run up to the Stormont campaign.
But no-one should take a bounce for granted. After all in 2007 Sinn Fein got no bounce in the south from its healthy showing in the Assembly elections and the pictures of the restoration of devolution. The question is do nationalist voters in the north take more notice of southern Irish politics, than southern voters take of affairs north of the border?
P.S. Whilst Basil McCrea is concerned about the Irish election, the TUV's Jim Allister thinks unionists should be looking to it as an example - his argument being that voters throwing a government out of office is exactly what democracy is all about. Mr Allister will now add the election outcome to his list of arguments against what he refers to as the "absurdity" of the Stormont mandatory coalition.
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