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Aubrey Newman, dressed in camouflage from head to toe, his rifle by his side, is squeaking diligently. He's using two small gadgets hung around his neck, which appear to work on the principle of a finger nail on a blackboard, to reproduce the call of a wild turkey.

It's a beautiful day to be sitting underneath the trees in the hot autumn sunshine of the Roanoke valley in Virginia. Even if no shots are fired, and no turkeys answer the call, staring out at the woods turning gold, red and orange is reward enough.

Aubrey and his cousin Leon have already voted by post in the election to choose a new governor for the state of Virginia. They knew they would be out in the woods on election day. But they are confident that their man, the Republican candidate, Bob McDonnell, will get the job. They're probably right: it's certainly what the polls suggest.

Virginia went Democratic - voted Obama - last year but, on the anniversary of that victory, looks set to return to the Republicans. The Newman cousins insist that it's the start of a Republican revival. Neither of them voted for Obama but they both tell me they are disappointed with the president.

Leon says: "I don't think he's done anything for me and I don't think he's done much for the country. This health care package, it's certainly not going to do anything for the retired people, it's certainly going to cost us money."

Aubrey is even more forthright: "I don't like some of the things our president has proposed. I have never believed in socialism and it looks like we're going into socialism."

This is not the only test for the president today. There is another governor's race in New Jersey and a congressional election in New York. The results will be taken by some as a referendum on President Obama's first nine months in office.

It is certainly a good opportunity to look at how he is seen, a year after that momentous election - and if his party does badly in some or all of the contests, it will be taken as a portent by many.

But a number of words of caution. Virginia is contrary, and since the 1970s has elected a governor of a different political hue to the one in the White House.

Not even Reagan at his most popular bucked this tendency. Much will depend on turnout, at a time when the Democrats have had a big victory and are exhausted.

Then, these are not British by-elections. People are not choosing representatives but rulers, who can raise or lower their taxes. So the candidates and local issues really do matter. And one candidate seems way ahead.

"Go Bob, Go Bob, GO!" Supporters shout with enthusiasm as the dapper and neatly coiffured figure of Republican contender Bob McDonnell emerges from Roanoke airport to a small but enthusiastic crowd. Commentators are pretty much united that he's the better candidate with a better campaign. The Democrat Creigh Deeds started negative and never really took off.

But if this is about how to run Virginia, it is striking how much McDonnell talks about national issues. It's true someone in his campaign team mentions the need to re-open restrooms along a certain highway, and he praises the virtues of education and off-shore drilling. But his main message is:

"We know Virginians are hurting and there's an economic down but we don't believe the answer is more big government taxes and programmes. That's not the secret to turning this economy round, it's more limited government and free enterprise and private sector solutions to allow people to use their God-given talents to pursue the American dream. That's how we turn this economy around."

That he mentions he is the National Rifle Association-endorsed candidate probably doesn't do any harm with the men in camouflage turning up for a coffee or coke at the Old Mill Country Store, after a hard morning's turkey or deer hunting. Most are planning to vote Republican.

But Shirley Naday, filling up her car at the store, voted for Obama last year and she shares their worries about the president. She tells me: "In the beginning I was for him and I thought he was going to do a great job. But I don't know now, don't know if he's going to do anything. He's kind of disappointed me."

I, of course, find some who are enthusiastic about the president even in this very conservative part of the state but here are some of my general thoughts. Many just don't know what is going on over healthcare, and what it will mean. Many worry about government spending, particularly if they are are not seeing results. Republicans have their tails up while some of Obama's supporters are waiting nervously for things to get better and so may stay at home rather than vote.

But more when we know the results tomorrow.

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