10 projections for 2010
A happy New Year to all, whether you have been contending with freezing temperatures (the UK), rising floodwaters (New South Wales) or raging bushfires (Western Australia).
Here, with the caveat that no doubt I will be proved wrong, are ten predictions for 2010.
1 - The election: If history is our guide, Kevin Rudd will win this year's federal election. After all, not since the great depression has an incumbent government been turfed out after just one term in office. Ever since he became leader of the Labor Party in December 2006, Kevin Rudd has enjoyed an unbroken run of high approval ratings, and it will surely take some unforeseen, game-changing event or scandal to put his government in jeopardy.
2 - The election fall-out: The corollary of Labor's widely expected win will be that the opposition will almost certainly turn to a new leader. Though Tony Abbott might well prove a more formidable opponent than many expect - and the failure of the Copenhagen summit to produce a more comprehensive deal certainly strengthens his hand - he would find it hard to survive a big electoral defeat. In that event, the Liberal Party would most likely turn to its affable shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey.
3 - Most headline-making politician: With the obvious exceptions of Mssrs Rudd and Abbott, this will surely be a contest between Malcolm Turnbull, who has vowed to cross the floor of parliament to support the government's emissions trading scheme when it is re-introduced in February, and the Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce, now installed on the opposition front bench. A gifted phrase-maker, Senator Joyce regularly produces the quote of the day, and is not so much a Straight-talk Express as a bullet train.
4 - The wonder from down under: The Australian economy is expected to continue on an upward trajectory, with the fourth quarter of consecutive growth likely in the months leading up to March. But the growth will be uneven, with the resources-based Western Australia and Queensland outstripping the older states of New South Wales and Victoria. The downside for property owners everywhere is that interest rates will continue to rise.
5 - Diplomatic problem areas:With the surge in asylum seekers showing little sign of abating, and with the boatpeople issue expected to loom large in the federal election, relations with Indonesia, the home to most of the notorious people smugglers, will almost certainly continue to deteriorate.
6 - The next Aussie big things: Fresh from her success in Jane Campion's exquisitely crafted Bright Star, Abbie Cornish will join that exclusive Aussie club which currently includes Cate Blanchett, Nicole Kidman and Toni Collette. Sam Worthington, the star of Avatar, will also join the Hollywood major league.
7 - The critics: The critics, both here and elsewhere, will love Cate Blanchett and Hugo Weaving in Uncle Vanya, and Chris Lilley's latest creation, Angry Boys, the successor to his critically-acclaimed Summer Heights High.
8 - Grand Designs: Australia will enjoy more international architectural attention than at any time since the opening of the Sydney Opera House, as projects by some of the world's leading starchitects take shape. Richard Rogers, Sir Norman Foster, Jean Nouvel, and, topping the list, Frank Gehry.
9 -Tricky Ricky: If his form slump continues, the debate over whether Ricky Ponting should be replaced at number three for Australia by Michael Clarke will intensify, as will the discussion of whether he can realise his oft-stated ambition of leading his country to an Ashes win in Britain in 2013.
10 - Back Page: Geelong will win a second successive AFL grand final, Queensland will extend its winning streak in the State of Origin, a horse trained by Bart Cummings will win the 150th Melbourne Cup, rugby union will continue to lose fans to rugby league unless players and coaches rediscover the joys of the running game, and, of course, England will retain the Ashes.
I'm 
Comments
or to comment.