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COP15: First draft of Copenhagen's political declaration

Richard Black | 16:00 UK time, Friday, 18 December 2009


1641 CET: Here is my take on the latest draft of the declaration:

"We're into a strange dark limbo-land here. The draft political agreement that leaders are supposed to sign today has gone through more changes than Eva Longoria at an awards ceremony."

Click here to read it in full.

1335 CET: Here are some thoughts on Barack Obama's speech:

"A year ago, I sat in a news conference at the UN climate conference in Poznan and listened to Senator John Kerry pledge that an Obama administration would lead the world on combating climate change."

Click here to read it in full.

COP15 draft declaration1117 CET Here is a copy of the first draft of the political declaration put before governments last night [4.24Mb PDF].

1142 CET A few more details on the draft document rejected by governments last night.

One key issue for constraining climate change is the date by which emissions should peak and begin to decline.

Many scientists analyses - including the IPCC's suggest it should be no later than 2020, possibly 2015. The initial draft of this agreement said "as soon as possible".

On finance, developing countries as seeking for a specific pledge on how much of the $100bn by 2020 figure that Hillary Clinton endorsed yesterday should come from public finances - as yet, there's no number, and there's concern that funds from the "innovative mechanisms" suggested for private financing would not be reliable.

Some developing countries are also determined to have a commitment to achieving a legally binding treaty with a specific time-frame - a year at most.


1046 CET I've managed to dig out a few details of the draft political agreement that was sent down to governments during the night.

The key sticking point appears to have been the lack of a firm plan for what should happen next.

There was no commitment to a legally-binding treaty, for example, which many developing countries have been insisting on.

The language was unclear on whether to continue using the Kyoto Protocol as an instrument for cutting emissions, as developing nations have been insisting, or whether to lump everything together under a new agreement.

There was lack of clarity on key numbers - for example, emission cuts from developed nations.

The third draft is being drawn up as I write.


0943 CET How quickly the weathervane moves here in Copenhagen.

Yesterday morning, the summit was heading for the rocks. By the end of the day, with Gordon Brown, Kevin Rudd, Hillary Clinton and their ministers rushing from meeting to meeting, the lights were back on - some sort of deal was likely.

It has clearly been a long night. A draft political agreement drawn up, sources say, by a group including the UK and other EU countries, the US, Mexico, Australia and others - possibly Brazil - was thrown back with much distaste by the overall grouping of countries here.

Once again, a largely Western bid for control of this process had foundered; Western hands had been ripped off the levers of power.

So what happens now? We have draft texts that have been worked on for months - years in some cases - and many delegations are reportedly insistent that this is what should go before leaders.

Seeking a fast exit (Angela Merkel and Barack Obama are certainly scheduled to be out of here well before the day is done, probably others too) the small group is maintaining its diplomatic push.

Many delegates here are tired beyond belief. Some negotiators have been up for most of the last three nights. There is a huge, technically complex agenda to be negotiated.

The Western spin is that developing countries are objecting to procedure. That's part of it - but it goes far, far deeper.

For many developing countries, it's a story of repeated broken promises and high-handed treatment.

As to how this thing turns out - right now, I'm out of predictions.

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