In Bucharest at the NATO summit
I can鈥檛 help feeling that if Romania鈥檚 unlamented Communist president Nicolae Ceausescu were alive today, he鈥檇 be spinning in his grave. Something like that, anyway.
His vast, hideous monstrosity, the House of the People (now less grandiloquently named the Parliament Palace), is draped in NATO banners. Yes, NATO, in Bucharest, a city that less than 20 years ago epitomised all that was rotten behind the Iron Curtain.
The building is reputed to the second biggest in the world, after the Pentagon in Washington. (People who know more about big buildings than I do say it isn鈥檛 鈥 all I can tell you for sure is that it is definitely big.) And it鈥檚 where this week鈥檚 NATO summit is being held, which means that someone, somewhere has a finely developed sense of irony. Three thousand delegates, the same number of journalists 鈥 and still the place seems half empty.
As for NATO, well, it鈥檚 big, and getting bigger. It has 26 members now, including 10 which less than 20 years ago were in the Soviet bloc 鈥 and two more, Albania and Croatia, now accepted for future membership. Albania? I know, it鈥檚 hard to keep up sometimes.
The whole point about NATO, of course, is that it was founded as 鈥 and still is 鈥 a defence organisation. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which happens to have been signed exactly 59 years ago today, says: 鈥淎n armed attack against one or more [members] shall be considered an attack against them all 鈥︹ which is comforting if you鈥檙e a small, vulnerable nation with a large and powerful neighbour.
And on the subject of large and powerful neighbours, President Putin is here today (I鈥檓 writing this before we know what he intends to say) 鈥 the word is that he intends to be in a mood more mellow than melodramatic. Next month, he鈥檒l become Prime Minister Putin, so he may also be in semi-valedictory mood.
NATO鈥檚 great achievement over the past 59 years has been to convince the US that its own security depends at least in part on Europe鈥檚 security. President Bush is keen to entice more and more former Soviet bloc nations into the NATO tent; but some of his European allies aren鈥檛 so sure that tweaking Moscow鈥檚 nose is such a great idea. But Mr Bush won鈥檛 be coming to any more NATO summits, so the feeling here is 鈥淟et鈥檚 wait to see who鈥檚 in the White House this time next year.鈥
First in Kosovo, and now in Afghanistan, NATO troops have gone into action 鈥渙ut of theatre鈥, which is soldier-speak for countries that aren鈥檛 NATO members. The thinking is that if NATO members鈥 security is threatened, either by the Taliban harbouring al-Qaeda, or by ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, NATO has the right to intervene. But Kosovo is still a big headache, and Afghanistan an even bigger one. Which means this is a pretty sombre summit.
And if you鈥檙e wondering why I haven鈥檛 said anything about Zimbabwe this week, it鈥檚 because the situation is still too volatile and confused to make any sense of. As soon as I think I can discern a likely outcome, you鈥檒l be the first to know.
The ultimate entry of Estonia and Ukraine into NATO is part of a process which will preclude the possibility that any Russian leader in the future will give serious thought to re-occupying the near-abroad to re-establish a Russian empire. Russian paranoia resulting from a long history of being invaded is understandable but it cannot be allowed to use that as a reason to create a Moscow controlled buffer beyond its border. Such a geographic arrangement in an era when real wars will be fought with missiles, aircraft, at sea around the entire world, and from outer space makes no sense anyway. The notion of any future invasion of Russia is ludicrous.
With vast arsenals of nuclear weapons still aimed at each other from opposite sides of the world, Russia and the US have nothing to gain over each other from emplacements of a handful missiles close to each other's borders, especially defensive missiles. The alternative to a missile defense shield capable of intercepting Iranian ICBMs possibly armed with nuclear weapons targeted at the US is a pre-emptive strike against Iran. It may eventually come to that anyway and there are many who are surprised it hasn't happened already. Russia is playing a dangerous game when it toys with American perceptions of its own security vulnerabilities and needs. The Taleban learned that lesson the hard way. So did Saddam Hussein. People who think the US won't act because of domestic political paralysis over Iraq or other matters would badly misjudge the way the US works. An important lesson from the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 is that political paralysis will not prevent the Department of Defense from taking matters into its own hands if it feels the civilian government has misjudged a threat. As was seen on that occasion, this would include use of any and all of the vast means at the US military's disposal.
Complain about this postLets all believe in America and the CIA and of course CURVEBALL.
Who will guarantee that the information provided by a yet to be developed Radar System will be interpreted correctly?
Who can re-assure the Czech people?
Complain about this postThe US will not admit it but they are completely overstretched now.
Complain about this postThey have no army to call on anymore.
Bush has decimated the US army.
Soldiers will not return to the forces anymore but seek other jobs and they are trying to recruit at gas staions!
The US has no troops left to fight anymore wars even if they want to.
Calling the Nato Summit sombre was probably meant as a provocation. I rather think kindness would be more appropriate, kindness towards a misbehaving (yet again) spoilt brat, namely George W.. So they gave him a few parting presents like supposedly agreeing to some Radar or other, while his greedy little fingers were reaching out to this beautiful big parcel that represents the Ukraine. "Mum Angela" (Merkel) probably stroked his head and told him to go and be a good boy from now on. The world will be a better place for it.
So, look on the bright side Robin.
Complain about this postDear Robin,
Complain about this postnew members is one thing, what about the French wanting to take up fuller membership again and providing French Troops to work within the NATO fold? Should we not welcome it, as a sort of fleshing out the "entente amicale" M. Sarcozy brought to Britain only a week ago?
Lets have a bit more of the Western European dimension please.