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Martin Geissler explores the consequences of a falling birth rate and an increasing older population, and the impact on the health and prosperity of Scotland.

In the cycle of life, birth and years of good health are often followed by poor health and death. It鈥檚 the job of the National Records of Scotland to track this information so that plans can be made to support the population鈥檚 needs, both now and in the future. Scotland is facing several challenges in that regard, with fewer babies being born and people living longer. It is estimated that by 2045, Scotland will have twice as many pensioners as children.

When the working age population shrinks, there are fewer people paying tax and less money for services. Attracting workers from the rest of the UK and overseas becomes important in the short term, but making sure that as many people as possible can access employment possibilities is also vital. An ageing population can put pressure on services as their healthcare requirements become more complex. However, there is enormous disparity in different areas of Scotland when it comes to how many years people can expect to be in good health during their lifetime.

In areas where social deprivation is high, healthy life expectancy is low. Men in Inverclyde and North Ayrshire can expect their health to deteriorate in their early sixties, but in Orkney, where there are low levels of deprivation, they can expect to be well into their seventies.

All of this has an impact on what services are needed, and where, with more services requiring more taxation, which in turn requires more healthy people of working age.