Forecasting: How to Map the Future
Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw examines the pitfalls forecasters face and asks how they might learn to avoid them.
Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw asks why so many recessions take us by surprise and why the failure of certain forecasts should be a cause of celebration, not despair. He examines the role of complexity and groupthink and how technological advance can scupper the best laid forecasts. Do we, as consumers, invest too much faith in forecasts? And is there anything forecasters can do to ensure their pronouncements are more reliable?
Producer: Rosamund Jones
(Image: Adam Shaw at a pool table. Credit: 主播大秀)
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- Sat 22 Jul 2017 02:06GMT主播大秀 World Service except Americas and the Caribbean, East and Southern Africa, News Internet & West and Central Africa
- Sat 22 Jul 2017 10:32GMT主播大秀 World Service except News Internet
- Sat 22 Jul 2017 21:32GMT主播大秀 World Service East and Southern Africa & West and Central Africa only
- Sat 22 Jul 2017 22:32GMT主播大秀 World Service except East and Southern Africa, News Internet & West and Central Africa
- Sun 23 Jul 2017 02:06GMT主播大秀 World Service Americas and the Caribbean, East and Southern Africa & West and Central Africa only
- Sun 23 Jul 2017 14:06GMT主播大秀 World Service East and Southern Africa & West and Central Africa only
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