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"Fish or cut bait day".

• Betsan Powys
• 15 May 07, 01:32 PM

So the Lib Dems have cancelled tonight's meeting of the Executive. They now meet on Thursday night and as one Lib Dem put it, "Friday is fish or cut bait day".

Labour AMs are gathering now, Plaid meet tomorrow so will the bait still be there? Or will Ieuan Wyn Jones have taken the plunge and made a move?

We know now that the Lib Dems will not move their Special Conference from May 26th despite Labour's increasing frustration that they're leaving it so late. We know too that Plaid Cymru intend to hold a meeting of the National Council on the same day. Only the National Council could overturn its own decision prohibiting any coalition with the Tories in the Assembly (but no bad thing either to have a meeting planned if there's a deal with Labour in the offing.)

Our ringaround of Lib Dem election candidates - of which more later - reveals a strong aversion to striking a deal with Labour. Unless STV in local government elections is on the table, most by far say 'no deal'. Even then no deal in the bag.

Downstairs Labour AMs are gathering for their group meeting. Until now they've made clear their determination not to tie Rhodri Morgan's hands by dismissing a deal with Plaid. Others continue to remind us that the 'worst worst' option would never be acceptable and even murmur a suspicion that party leaders may have had something like this in mind for a while.

By the way I got to within a stone's throw of Cold Knap Lake over the weekend. No one legged swans in sight.