Talking about the weather
Post categories: climate change,Ìýtemperature
| 07:00 UK time, Wednesday, 11 May 2011
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I am not really a gardener.
I potter and act on instructions from the ‘Boss’. I get sent to buy the plants, but am not allowed to suggest where to plant them.
Mind you, with only a ‘postage’ stamp size garden it’s not too difficult. I have, however, in the last couple of years been promoted and honoured with the task of looking after my daughter’s allotment, as she says she no longer has the time (or is too lazy!)
However my first 'proper' attempt at being a gardener has turned out a disaster. Despite my best efforts, last year everything either went to seed or was eaten by rabbits, foxes or caterpillars. This year is no better:Ìýthe seeds I planted are just sitting there dying through lack of moisture. And that's all down to theÌý‘funny’ weather’ we've been having. Now there I do know what I'm talking about.
So is this what global warming means, you ask? The answer could be yes and could be no. There is no doubt that the of the earth is changing, and will continue to change, as we can do nothing to stop it: only slow it, if we act soon enough and decisively enough right across the world.
We can see how the seasons have been changing in this country:Ìý is much earlier these days, soÌýthe growing season in the UK starts almostÌýtwo weeks earlier than it did (and in some other parts of the world up toÌýsix weeks earlier, with disastrous effects on local birds and insects).
We have seen drought and record-breaking high temperatures this April: echoes of 2003, the ‘killer’ heat waveÌýwhenÌýtemperatures reached 37.8°C (100°F) for the first time ever.
We can also see that the overall temperature of the Earth has been slowly but surely increasing more or less year by year - and there is NO doubt in my mindÌýthat this is being caused by human activities such as burning immense quantities of fossil fuel.
In theory, the climate of the British Isles should be becoming much milder and wetter in the winter, and hotter and drier in the summer.
This has not been the case this year - but then it has always been thought that there would be variations from year to year, rather than a steady progression.
There is also a further unanswered question as to what might happen to the North Atlantic Drift, otherwise known as the Gulf Stream. Some scientists believe it could be cut off or change its route, and so give us colder winters.
It has not changed yet, so we must put the coldest December for over 100 years down to natural variation - or something else. The something else could be a change in the atmosphere’s circulation in the northern hemisphere, caused perhaps by La Nina.
In my career in the I have undoubtedly seen an increaseÌýin what we call in the trade, 'blocking situations'. This is when the normal west–east progression of jet stream weather systems grind to a halt, or is even reversed. This undoubtedly caused the unseasonable cold in eastern America, Europe and parts of China, while other parts were unseasonably warm.
It has also caused our record-breaking dry, warm April, but this time the block was in a slightly different place so as to feed up warm southerly winds instead of cold easterly or northerly ones.
Still: whatever happens, we should continue to have a relatively benign and lovely climate. Imagine gardening inÌýthe devastating cyclones, hurricanes, tornadoes, searing heat waves, bone-chilling cold andÌýmega floodsÌýthat other parts suffer. At least we don't have to cope with that lot....Ìýyet!
MBEÌýis one of theÌýÖ÷²¥´óÐã's best-knownÌýweathermen,Ìýfamously failing to predict the notorious 1987 hurricane. He gives talks onÌýglobal warming and meteorologyÌýaround the country.
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