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Monday, 17 November, 2008

Ian Lacey | 17:28 UK time, Monday, 17 November 2008

Jeremy presents tonight; Dan Kelly is programme producer. Here's his outline of what's on.

Christmas Cheer or the "Borrowing Bombshell"?
Given recent political history, we find ourselves in the curious position that the Labour Party is backing tax cuts in time for the Christmas sales, while the Tories have set themselves against unfunded giveaways - . Michael Crick investigates how united the Tories are in their attempts to balance the books.

Pirates
in the Indian Ocean which was travelling towards the US. The vessel is now heading towards the Somali coast, with the US navy in pursuit. The vessel can hold up to two million barrels of oil - more than one quarter of Saudi Arabia's daily exports - worth over $100 million. What can the US military do about it? We'll have the very latest.

China
We have a fascinating film from our award winning about the extraordinary - and often brutal - transformation of rural China. Over the last two and a half years Newsnight has followed the fortunes of White Horse Village, which is about 1000 miles from Beijing. Tonight, farmers protest to the local party official about the destruction of their houses and the lack of school places for their children - places apparently reserved for the local elite. You can watch tonight's film right now on the website - .

Tonight at 22.30, Ö÷²¥´óÐã Two.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    BRUTALITY BRITISH STYLE

    You can beat up a prisoner in a cell, or you can tell an innocent man he will not be released until he confesses to someone else's crime - and keep him locked up for decades. Which is the most brutal?
    You can abuse a defenceless child until it dies, or unload explosives from high altitude in a just war - never touching anything - battering all ages to pulp. Brutality?
    You can run a pretence of concern about alcohol and tobacco, while your chums get rich and the educated-dumb get sick. As long as the tax/NHS trade-off, comes out as 'a plus', how can that be brutality?
    Or you can win awards filming half way round the world, knowing that brutality - British style - begins at home, but will never end at home; and just looks so commonplace you get no prizes for recording it.

  • Comment number 2.

    #1

    Or you can lock up a dad who gives his 7 year old boy a smack across the legs.

    Yet Baby P can stay with his mother and get tortured to death.

    What a strange country we live in !

  • Comment number 3.

    On tax cuts I think both Labour and the Tories are wrong.

    Labour are actually perversely making hay from something created in part by their own mistakes and then arguing that harsh public criticisms and strife will damage the economy.

    The Tories are damned whatever they do but are galled but I think erroneously consider that the poll boost to Labour is "spun".

    But is it in fact that people DO realise Labour are responsible but also have reacted against doctrinaire free market capitalists in favour of "harnessed capitalism" as per the EU model.

    Its also a sad reflection that a satirical programme - Bremner, Bird and Fortune - has been the most informative on the subject to date ....

    Piracy used to be quite active off Lagos, Nigeria, due to the large quantity of ships anchored there. The Malaka straights also. Now the Arabian Sea. Time for a UN mandated police force as there have always been pirates.

    I have a known bias against totalitarian regimes and goose steppers in particular but while I have not watched the China clip I hope there is balance that recognises the great achievements that they have made as the recent UN report mentioned.

  • Comment number 4.

    Newsnight and the other Ö÷²¥´óÐã news programmes should really be renamed 'The Save Gordon Brown Show'.

    Your bias is appalling, anf the sooner the beeb is shut down, the more democratic this country will be.

  • Comment number 5.

    thegangofone (#3) "I have a known bias against totalitarian regimes and goose steppers in particular"

    Yes, you most certainly do. But do you really know why, and b) do you know what that inevitably makes you prone to be biased towards?

  • Comment number 6.



    History keeps because so few learn .

    There's surely something seriously missing in those who behave so brazenly and yet

    Is it Axis II Cluster B, or is it just politics?

  • Comment number 7.

    #3
    "On tax cuts I think both Labour and the Tories are wrong"

    It is essential that spending levels are boosted to reduce the severity of the recession. It is important that the balance of spending between consumption and investment is as close to "normal" as possible. That means consumer spending must be boosted. Tax cuts are the best, most direct, way to do that. Investment spending will tend to follow consumption.

    Financing the tax cuts from borrowing seems sensible (when we remember the government is really our employees acting on our behalf. Government borrowing from domestic sources is just us borrowing from ourselves. in aggregate. We shall later have to repay ourselves. All the talk about burdening future generations is baloney. They will be far worse off if the economy collapses and we cannot maintain roads or build hospitals to leave for them). The IMF agree. Boy George does not. Two good reasons to think it is right!

    Rob Slack

  • Comment number 8.

    Watching Boy George alongside Dave in the house I am reminded of a rabbit in the headlights. He seemed to be thinking "hang on Dave, don't say anything I might be expected to explain later, not about economics!".

    Alan Duncan is now talking about "funded tax cuts"? Whatever is the point of that? Even Tony McNulty seems more credible. (Seems...)

    Rob Slack

  • Comment number 9.

    I am puzzled. The Tories were very keen to have lower taxes on high fuel prices, and higher taxes on lower fuel prices, but they oppose the idea of generally lower taxes when prices are generally high as they are just now. Hm. Is that consistent?

    I am also puzzled that the Bank of England was in a fit because a few prices rose and inflation increased - which they could do nothing about - and now we are seeing those same high prices fall and the BofE is in a fit because we are heading for deflation and again they can do nothing about it. Hm. Is that really something to worry about?

    I suppose I should also include the observation that many items that are imported are already falling in price (and have been for years) - and this is deflation too - but this balances out the inflation we normally have within our own borders but choose to ignore (house prices for instance).

    Am I missing the point or will a lot of this swinging about straighten itself out without intervention? Surely part of the problem we had is now over (the high prices) and the global downturn continues along with the credit crunch. If all governments take action to stimulate growth, won't that result in the high prices all over again? Hm. I think it might.

    Or am I in need of a volume of the "Idiots Guide to the Economy Stupid"? (By Gordon Brown).

  • Comment number 10.

    Is anyone surprised that employers are using the excuse of the economy to shed staff/workers. It's another "it's not us gov. but blame the Government/banks and anyone else of which you can think"!?

    As to whose party has the answer, Brown's has the most chance to have its "spree" and gifts" and to boost the building industry and cheap pound our exports. I remember the "buy British" campaign of the '60's.

    As Murray posting *4 appears to continue the "let's attack Brown" excuse then perhaps when he gets his Tory Government in 18 months time why should Brown worry about the size of the deficit when Cameron will have the problem, or else the electorate can vote Labour back to clear up their own mess. In this sense Labour cannot lose. There is some perversity in this scenario.

    Tax cuts may have the effect of releasing money to be spent in shops but on the other hand many of us, including me, will use it to pay off debts and return to the old ways of buying what you can afford instead of borrowing Monopoly money. I use my car less, energy usage is at it's minimum, food bills are halved, we cook with left overs and we buy the cheapest brands and reduced items- not good news for shops and the car industry, especially to get a loan to buy any car is extremely remote.

    The 2nd. lesson on Sunday in Church was that of the talents with the punch line in a revised version being that he should not have buried the money but lent it to the banks when he could get his hands on it when he returned!!! Definitely the wrong option. Keep it buried so they can't get their hands on it, neither can the tax-man. I could re-write that parable with our economy in mind. Was the one with 5 talents and made 10 a an Amercan mortgage banker, the one with 2 that made 4 a market speculator?

    I don't think we are saying "well done thou good and faithful servant(s)" but there is plenty of "weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth"- in my case gums!!

  • Comment number 11.

    SAN FAIRY ANN

    J Gordon Potter used his magic word FAIR again today. Evil was constrained, and the world stayed steady on its axis.
    "We will take people FAIRLY through this downturn" he declared, but what does that MEAN?
    Would we not prefer: "safely"? That would be: nobody homeless, dead, or hypothermic.
    Or "competently" would be nice. That would mean not transferring out of the toilet-pan into the U-bend. Surely FAIRNESS invokes altruism, honour, trust and the like. Is he really prepared to give up his legendary freedom from such attributes, after all this time? Why would he do that? It's a high price to pay for the Prime Ministership of a failed state.

  • Comment number 12.

    #9 "Am I missing the point or will a lot of this swinging about straighten itself out without intervention?"

    Yes. I remember once reading "in economics, bygones are bygones". We have a demand deficient recession. That means output is down. We shall never make that up; it is impossible. Besides economic cost, the social consequences are very serious (can be some of the worst). We might return to "normal" without intervention but the costs along the way will be great.


    #10. "Is anyone surprised that employers are using the excuse of the economy to shed staff/workers."

    I find this comment bizarre. Employers have a constant turnover of staff. If they wish to reduce numbers, they just do niot replace. Chances are most businesses have become complacent during the easy times. Most managers do not wish to lay people off and in good times just let it ride; it is not their money being wasted, it is the shareholders'. As long as profits are reasonable, why rock the boat. The economy will emerge leaner as a result of the shake out being forced on firms. (As it did after Maggie and the Major currency fiasco in 1992. That is how Blair/Brown got away with it for so long; they started from a strong position).

    It is almost certain some of any tax cuts will be used to pay down debts; that means the spending boost will be less than 100%. That is why the cuts must be finaced by borrowing.

    I must point out Bill, if we didn't use credit we would all be living in tree huts. If you saved for your retirement, you did so by lending to others, some of whom invested the funds to create the productive capacity to pay pension.

    All money involves borrowing; that is why it says "I promise to pay the bearer etc. on bank notes". It means the Bank has borrowed money and now owes it to the owner of its IOU (e.g. a fiver). I am not being flippant. ALL money is somebody's debt. Might seem weird, but is true.

    Rob Slack

  • Comment number 13.

    thegangofone (#3) "Its also a sad reflection that a satirical programme - Bremner, Bird and Fortune - has been the most informative on the subject to date ...."

    Here's a cue for you to do a little constructive thinking.....

    a) you don't know who is writing this

    and;

    b) did you notice the piece on B,B & F which cited the Chinese foreign minister saying that the West had made the mistake of trying to induce Africa to adopt a type of democracy which it was not ready for?

    What did the minister mean? Have you heard that before anywhere?

    Now ask yourself: what else may you have not understood (along with a couple of your chums) in an eagerness to defend what you believe and to criticise those whom you a) do not know b) do not understand and c) maybe in a position to educate you?

  • Comment number 14.

    #5 JadedJean

    Yes Nazis and the BNP. They seem to consist mainly of baby batterers and failed nail and railway train station bombers. Curious people - they are consistently failures. I suppose its in the genes.


    #7 13thMan

    Actually we largely agree. I was indicating Labour are going large and not funding the tax cuts that are needed (more JM Keynes than Biy George) because once this recession/slump bites in they are in big trouble. Would they dare win an election if they had not fixed the problem?

    But the Tories are aggrieved because of the polls hence the aggression. But of course they wouldn't have done much different.

    Sadly Vince Cable won't be Chancellor any time soon.

  • Comment number 15.

    #13 Jaded_jean

    I couldn't care less "who is writing this".

    You are so important aren't you. I suppose it makes you feel a little .... well ... sad.

  • Comment number 16.

    My Personal Views -

    Mr Osborne

    The most interesting part of Mr Osborne's weekend comments in the Telegraph "Our reckless PM is leading us down the road to ruin", was what he said about our current Government debt levels.


    "Labour is already spending more of your money on servicing its debts than on educating the country's children. Higher borrowing means things would get even worse. Taxpayers could soon be spending more on debt interest payments than on the entire Ministry of Defence budget."


    If this is wrong surly Labour would be shouting from the rooftops to correct him ?

    Mr Osborne to me was not talking down Sterling, he just stated the reality of the pounds devaluation in the past months and warning us taxpayers.Just as News Night did last Friday

    Quote -
    "Sterling at it's lowest against the Euro ever and the slide against the Dollar, do you see that as a vote of no confidence against the Bank of England or on the Government itself ?"


    I did not see that as talking down the currency either, just stating the obvious in a question.


  • Comment number 17.

    thegangofone (#15) "I couldn't care less "who is writing this". I suppose it makes you feel a little .... well ... sad."

    .




  • Comment number 18.

    thegangofone (#14) You really must try to stop disregarding all those who disagree with you as 'nazis' or members (or supporters of) the BNP.

    There are people in the UK who support

    a) their nation just as those in Israel do,

    and, who

    b) resent subversion of what most people in the UK have spent their lives building.

    In this (somewhat divided recently) country, there are minorities, but they were invited here (or given refuge in good faith) because they frequently made out at that they were worse off elsewhere. To then find that such people charge their hosts as racists for expecting them to assimilate, is at the least, egregious narcissism/ingratitude.

    This accounts for patriarchy - what you call totalitarianism.

    Be warned. There is a long history here, and it's a very long one. Have you noticed how the 'war on terror' has died a death?

  • Comment number 19.

    My favourite interview of the night was Jeremy with Alan Duncan & Tony McNulty on tax cuts from Duncan accusing Jeremy of "putting one of his expressions on" (he's that observant?) to Jeremy telling off McNulty about George Osboure (completely off topic) which was a cheap shot to telling him to come back on Monday. Hillarious!!!! Ha ha ha - a youtube classic :-)

    As always an absolutely brilliant report by Carrie Gracie on White Horse Village in China - look forward to many more reports.

  • Comment number 20.

    No.18 JJ agree with your comment entirely.

    No.14 TGOO Hhhhmmm don't think the BNP is quite so anoraky these days, it appears "normal" people are joining in droves.

    We seem to have lost all pride in our country these days, but I don't want to see extremists of any colour in control.

  • Comment number 21.

    AGE OF SPEED MEETS AGE OF CHANGE.

    By default: I am English, white, and indigenous to this island. In truth, at 71, I have been left behind and overrun, simultaneously, by change of ever-increasing speed. The world is suffering the same pressure, and it is my view that MANKIND IS NOT EVOLVED TO HANDLE IT.
    The new 'global citizenry' who fly about with laptop connection to everywhere, may think they are 'The Future' but I suspect that - just as time spent among nature's greenery has been found beneficial to the human organism - territorial identity and 'organic' human contact, is also in our bones - even genes. Movement is a symptom of agitation.

    World leaders are not chosen from the most able, by virtue of proven, relevant skills, nor are they screened for dangerous needs and drives. Hence, we have an ever more turbulent planet - in both human and functional terms - fought over by a bunch of 'half-made-up' wannabes, all trying to trump each other's 'master-strokes'. To Britain's embarrassment, I think it is FAIR to say: Brown is a true leader in such juvenile pursuits.

    The amount of fiddling (Nero-esque and Brownian) while the planet heads for self-ignition, is exponential. Can we fix it? Well - no actually.



  • Comment number 22.

    This comment is awaiting moderation. Explain.

  • Comment number 23.

    Rob Slack *12, I wouldn't disagree with most of what you wrote but there must be some firms/banks/businesses taking this opportunity to "downsize" which you quite rightly pointed out should have been done long ago in the name of efficiency.

    As to borrowing and lending ("a lender and a borrwer be" is the new edict from our Supreme Leader), the operative word is "responsible" and unless you have been "beatified" we have all drank at the cup of excess, which in my case was usually a few pints of real ale.

    Now there is another "industry" that has been taken to the cleaners by greedy Pub-Co's! judging by the number of pub closures.

  • Comment number 24.

    HE TACKLED THE JOB THAT COULDN'T BE DONE . . .

    The Ö÷²¥´óÐã is lost. (11.10pm Ö÷²¥´óÐã News: 17 Nov. update of the battered baby misery with variable focus footage; empty cot traversed fleetingly with human shadows. Contemptible)

    On this blog, we all fall into the trap of personal attack and riposte, bragging, flights of fancy and illusions of certainty, because we are not up to the job, any more that 'they' are.

    Vince Cable is quite impressive isn't he? But then he would persuade me to say that, wouldn't he! He is a Westminsterer, and has never denounced that place for the greater good. We need to find a 'Westminster-free' (of taint) VC (!) then another - then another.

    Or have we bred-out the hero completely?

  • Comment number 25.

    taking an oil tanker should focus minds somewhat?

    tories have got it half right. debt on debt is stupid. the way out is through employment creation through growth industries. like a feed in tariff which has proven to create hundreds of thousands of jobs, redistribute wealth and democratise energy.

    given the govt created the mess -uk regulation was NOT a world wide thing- it looks farcical for them to pretend to be experts at anything.

    come dancing? I guess its better than the bbc presenter boxing idea of middle class people beating their brains out for working class pleasure.

  • Comment number 26.

    Mistress76uk #19

    "As always an absolutely brilliant report by Carrie Gracie on White Horse Village in China - look forward to many more reports"

    I have just watched that report online and I must say I am not convinced. It was too one sided. Sure, the Chinese party members are, I expect, every bit as corrupt and self interested as the Westminster lot. Sadly it is just 'human nature'. However, the is a lot in the Chinese party system (look what they have achieved) which is good and they were not given the right of reply.

    As a parallel, I remember another rural village which government decided had to go in the interests of the common good. There was the expected crusading (biased journalism) raised against the plans to submerge the village under a new and much needed reservoir. Much along the lines of Carrie Gracie's report. But a new reservoir had to go somewhere and geology played a major part in the choice. Although at the time I felt for the poor villagers who were ousted from their family homes and the farmers who lost their land, it really was vital to the region and it had to happen. It wasn't in China though, or any other 'totalitarian' regime. The village was called Bewl Bridge and was in Kent. No doubt an enterprising film crew could have made a similar emotive piece of theatre for screening in China to illustrate the evils of our decadent western regime.

  • Comment number 27.

    Barrie, The more I see and hear from Vince Cable the more I like him, especially his favourite put-down of my Supreme Leader.

    Yes, you are right, few, if none of us has the answer to matters that our outside our control but it is fun hearing and reading from those who do.

  • Comment number 28.

    No 21 BS I think your thoughts are exactly right, but then I'm a pensioner too. I think everyone is whizzing around and getting nowhere fast. (Question; why do the Ö÷²¥´óÐã news presenters have to go to the country where a news story has broken, either a disaster or an election? Aren't the local Ö÷²¥´óÐã reporters up to the job?!) I also think all this running around is breaking up communities and societies all over the world, not just here. There is quite a lot of mental illness among the people left behind by their loved ones as well. And schizophrenia is much higher in new people to our shores.

  • Comment number 29.

    Barrie #21

    You are in a particularly perceptive frame of mind today. You say so much that is true and yet it seems to make little difference. I agree, I don't think it can be fixed. This is the end game of yet another society. It happens to us all it seems, Rome, Maya, Byzantium. We all go down the pan making way for something else.

    Like you I don't have too much longer left on this planet and in a way that is fine as it would be too grieving to see all I hold dear being wasted away. I just feel sorry for my children.

    We can talk ourselves to a standstill here. It won't make a blind bit of difference - 'On the NewsNight Blog no one can hear you scream'.

  • Comment number 30.

    #19 Jaded_Jean

    So why do you respond when I mention a dislike of Nazis etc.

    I quote you:

    "Hitler, Mussolini and Roosevelt did what they did in the 1930s (essentially running planned economies) because of the catastrophic financial mess which had been brought about by anarcho-capitalist 'democratic' deregulators peddling the merits of 'freedom'. Yet you and others of your ilk are still naively arguing for precisely this."

    Whatever you are selling I ain't buying - ever.

  • Comment number 31.

    PEOPLE? WHAT PEOPLE? (#26)

    Isn't there some move to make Parliament more representative? Any chance we could import an evictee of Diego Garcia, make them a Lord, and then elevate them to Minister for Unspeakable Acts? (How many more times must I invoke 'Mote and Beam'? Do the Chinese have an equivalent?)

    Successive Prime Ministers of 'all mentalities and none', have presided over serial 'improvements' to Britain while, as a direct consequence, the population becomes more and more obsessed with Money, Fame, Appearance and Possessions (Oliver James). Currently, illusory genius resides in J Gordon Brown, who, off his head with delight that the home-disaster is masked for a while, turns his back on manifest inability to run a zoo of 60 million, and tries his chewed hand at 'mastery' of the Super Zoo.

    Come home James Brown (face the relevance of eschewing 'James' for 'Gordon') and test your ability slapping some mud on the crumbling British wall, before you see yourself qualified to fix anything grander. You are not the Messiah - you're a very naughty boy!

  • Comment number 32.

    Soros-Funded Democratic Idea Factory Becomes Obama Policy Font

    an article on bloomberg. blog won't let me link.

  • Comment number 33.

    Soros-Funded Democratic Idea Factory Becomes Obama Policy Font

    on bloomberg.

    the blog won't let a link.

  • Comment number 34.

    LOOK TO THE SKIES

    Not had my heart attack yet - but I gather it can be 'life changing'. The population of earth needs a 'heart attack'. It has happened in the past, but never to people as scientifically sophisticated as we are.
    Cross fingers that 2012 (end of this Age) will deliver enough cosmic terror to make Bin laden die of fright, and to herald in a new hierarchy of importances. Trouble is, we will probably just get another religion . . .

    Speaking of celestial events:

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY JADED JEAN

  • Comment number 35.

    Those interested in actually reading the G20 final communiqué - rather than GB's
    spin - can find this on the White House's
    website here:



    Can't wait to hear George Bush trying to explain to the world his understanding of 'mitigating against pro-cyclicality in
    regulatory policy' while 'reviewing the
    reserve requirements of the IFIs'.......

    Note too how eagerly Brown signed up to all this talk of competition - having waived
    the normal competition rules for the Lloyds-
    TSB takeover bid for HBOS; and also for the improvement of international co-operation
    - after kicking Iceland ................................?

  • Comment number 36.

    "PROPER DUE DILIGENCE" (#35)

    Thanks for the link Neil. My large intestine threatened to strangle my brain, as I read.
    The report bears a remarkable resemblance to Vogon poetry and even more to Brownspeak. I cannot help feeling that the 'due' in 'due diligence'
    encompasses 'proper' and that in my school days, it would have been picked up and marked down as tautology. Hey ho! Blair is gone and his three priorities with hm. . . There are other similar examples of poor construction, along with petty trumpeting Brown-style. J'accuse.

    A FEW QUOTES:
    "We have taken strong and significant actions" - WE'LL BE THE JUDGE OF THAT MATEY.
    "Continue our vigorous efforts" - SEE ABOVE.
    ". . to stimulate domestic demand to rapid effect" IS THERE A PATTERN HERE?

    To my mind it has pleading Gordon written all over it. Strong, significant, vigorous, effective, wannabe Gordon.

  • Comment number 37.

    Enjoyed the reference to Vogon poetry #36

    Interesting too that Newsnight's acute observation on the G20 meeting handout is to translate the accent in 'communiqué' into a couple of Chinese characters .... a sign of the shifting global power balance already?!
    (see comment #35)

  • Comment number 38.

    Meanwhile back in the real world it's African Statistics Day - and UK DfID's statistician in Tanzania is participating with their national Bureau of Statistics in a village discussion
    of what all the numbers collected mean ...

    Jeremy Paxman would be in his element -
    so Happy African Statistics Day 2008 2U2!

  • Comment number 39.

    INCLUSIVITY (#38)

    I hope the figures for the Spaghetti Harvest will not be absent from the statistics this year. As every fule kno, spaghetti is a staple in Africa, and without staples the centre cannot hold.

    Did Gordon set this up when he was 'out-caring' Tony, by wandering Africa, a few years back?

  • Comment number 40.

    thegangofone (#30) "So why do you respond when I mention a dislike of Nazis etc."

    You still don't understand?

    The PRC is as a National Socialist state. so is Vietnam, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Burma, and several African countries. They are essentially Stalinist. If you made a rational case against command economies, central planning etc, I'd have no objection, but you don't, instead, you resort to emotional abuse, name calling, and hyperbole. This is usually how behave although they have morphed over the years. To a large extent, their behaviour is precisely why we're in the mess we're in, and it's the very behaviour which leads to the extremism which you say you abhor.

  • Comment number 41.

    Anent comment #39

    Not sure if there is a spaghetti theory of growth - even in Italy and/or Eritrea; but
    recent interest in the 'staple theory of growth' ie fur; cod; timber; publications;
    oil?; led me to the collected works of an
    unusually imaginative Canadian economic
    historian/political economist called Harold Innis (1894-1952) who I can recommend on this African Statistics Day 2008 to one & all!



  • Comment number 42.

    "Did Gordon set this up when he was 'out-caring' Tony, by wandering Africa, a few years back?"

    Of course not, Barrie ...... Gordon spent 6 days in Africa covering 4 countries - once;
    before going on to 'do China' in 3 days so
    he was much too busy fiddling UK stats to
    bother himself with African statistical help!

    African Statistics Day began in 1993 and it
    was a UN Economic Commission for Africa
    initiative it would appear:

    [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

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