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Thursday 16 July 2009

Sarah McDermott | 15:36 UK time, Thursday, 16 July 2009

Tonight we'll have the latest on the news that 12 people have died from swine flu since Monday.

Our Economics Editor Paul Mason will be looking at the big problem that nobody knows the answer to: the double dip recession. Are we going to see it happen, and if not what will stop it? And, live from Tokyo, we hope to be speaking to economist-of-the-moment, Richard Koo, of the global finance house, Nomura.

"We must work globally both to establish the security conditions that will enable a world free from nuclear weapons," Gordon Brown said today in a statement on nuclear proliferation. However, it has also emerged that the government will delay a key spending decision on the replacement of the Trident missile system until after May 2010, in the hope of smoothing the way for the conference reviewing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) scheduled for spring next.

Meanwhile, the influential Commons Defence committee has warned that a shortage of helicopters is harming military operations in Afghanistan. There are clearly tough choices ahead on defence spending... but how should those choices be made, and what impact will they have on our national identity?

Plus, as the trial of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi continues in Burma, we have film showing a rare glimpse of life in the military dictatorship and assessing the mood of the country's opposition movement. .

We'll also be speaking to the best-selling children's novelist Antony Horowitz about a new law requiring anyone who has "regular" or "intense" contact with children or vulnerable adults to sign up to the Vetting and Barring Scheme at a cost of £64. Several other high-profile authors, including Philip Pullman have already announced that they will stop visiting schools in protest. We'll debate.

And, of course, forty years ago today, a little after half past nine in the morning, Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins blasted off from Cape Canaveral on board Apollo 11 on their mission to the moon. It was a historic moment that grabbed the attention of the United States and the world. When they safely arrived a few days later they had fulfilled President John F Kennedy's aim of reaching the moon by the end of the 1960s. In his famous speech given before a joint session of Congress on May 25th 1961, JFK had said:

"I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth."

So what kind of challenge should we set for our generation? What similarly ambitious goal should we commit ourselves to achieving before a decade is out?

We'd like to hear your suggestions - leave your comments by clicking here.

Do join Gavin for all that and more at 10.30pm on Ö÷²¥´óÐã Two.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    I think we are not being told the whole truth about swine flu, could my suspicions be because I was fed a load of crap about 45 minute warnings, dodgy dossiers, WMD's....don't get me started !

  • Comment number 2.

    "Meanwhile, the influential Commons Defence committee has warned that a shortage of helicopters is harming military operations in Afghanistan."

    Much ado about nothing.

    We have something like 10 helicopters +/-6. Helicopters were prime targets when the Russians were there. We have something like 9000 troops out there. For a sense of perspective, Afghanistan has a population of over 30 million people, and their population pyramind is cone shaped, i.e young. Across the border, Pakistan has a population of over 150 million. If the Afghans don't like the Taleban, why aren't they fielding hundreds of thousands of their people against them? Prima facie, this makes no military sense.

    Good to scare Iran maybe someone thinks? Bet Iran doesn't think so.

  • Comment number 3.

    uk military should not be used for neocon regime change liberal inteventionism. nor should its design be bent that way. the only purpose by which the uk forces should be measured is uk defence.

    this week the electricity company changed my dial meter with an electronic one which means i can no longer through microgeneration put electricity back into the grid and so make the meter run 'backwards'. Are energy companies pre empting micro generation and establishing 'facts on the ground' that prevent microgeneration or make it too expensive to bother with?

    why have the govt again chose the most expensive and inefficient form of energy generation [offshore windfarms]? When there are millions of acres of factory roof space there is no need for white windmills everywhere. one is no longer surprised at the never ending perversions of common sense practice of the govt

  • Comment number 4.

    Erratum (#2) Well, 10 Chinooks. According to the , "Britain's 9,000 troops in Afghanistan's southern Helmand province have fewer than 25 helicopters 10 Chinooks, five Sea Kings and eight Apache attack aircraft at their disposal.". Still the point about perspective remains, as to the best of my knowledge, it's the Chinooks which are the ones you keep seeing ferrying troops about. So what is all this fuss about? Business?

  • Comment number 5.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 6.

    One of the regular themes in this blog is the criticism of people using the inclusive 'we'. Barrie especially. Now you are doing it.

    "Our Economics Editor Paul Mason will be looking at the big problem that nobody knows the answer."

    How do you know, 'nobody knows the answer'? Have you asked everybody? No you haven't. So you have opened your discussion with an in valid statement. This sloppy use of language when you are supposed to be trying to do something credible is a point JJ makes.

    "Our Economics Editor Paul Mason will be looking at the big problem that we don't know the answer to." Is what you should have written.

    Your blog should not have got past the moderators or your legal advisers. Just because you don't know something, doesn't mean other people don't as well.

    What you are saying is verging on defamation of character or accusing others of professional incompetence.

    I happen to know the answer, but you did not contact me to ask. So please do not include me in your self proclaimed statement of ignorance.

    Try aspiring to be the nations flagship news programme. That involves politeness and facilitating effective content. Which as a service to your viewers should involve asking those who know the answer.

    Paul should know better I warned about this situation from last October. Regular posters here are aware of my critique of the Economic Tsunami. The imaginary water goes out before the destructive crash.

    Double dip recessions follow the same models as multi factor ecological systems. Lag times and inertia concealed within the system. The professor you had on early in the week when discussing Swine Flu gave you an indicator. The incubation period of the disease causes a lag time before the extent is manifest and known.

    Too much emphasis was placed on 'quantum loop derivatives' and not enough on thermodynamic and entropy assessment of the economic situation.

    If you have a problem that you can't answer, then ask. Giving your viewers a workable scenario if far better than saying 'we don't know'. It instills respect in your programme. Surely respect and increased ratings for an authoritative programme should be a goal or attractor for NN to aspire to.

    Celtic Lion

  • Comment number 7.

    The nulabour Crime bull released recently shows another wonderfull %5 drop in crime. 13 years with a year on year drop in crime from nulabour. If the Figures were true that would mean we dont have Any crime at all in this country.

    nulabour utopia or was that 1984/animal farm/winston smith/ Dear George.

  • Comment number 8.

    Non of you Hacks at NN have yet touched the touchy subject of tony blair/gordon brown's master plan on/of getting rid of the British they Hate so much.

    IE bring preachers of Hate in2 the country allow them 2 spread/breed venom/contempt for the british and their way of life and allow them 2 leave said septRED isle and go and kill British Soldiers in Iraq/Afghanistan.

    SCARED/SCARRED Auntie? or is it Bury /Bad News/Head in Sand/head stuck up somewhere else? (with expences)

  • Comment number 9.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 10.

    Ok Mod have it your way for the Now.

    It does not Mean tony blair is not a War Criminal does it?

    For that In My Opinion Is Exactly What He/It Is, A War Criminal

    A War Criminal as EU President, that looks great, doesnt it

  • Comment number 11.

    #7 No No No

    I can't accept this. If there wasn't any crime all those new labour lawyers would complaining they have no work.

  • Comment number 12.

    'THEY' KNOW 'HOW' TO DO FUSION-POWER BUT IT STILL DOESN'T WORK. (#6)

    Knowing how is one thing, Celtic, but when you have to persuade 6+ billion people to follow you, before it can be realised, you had better be the 'One True God', with a better line than all the previous OTGs. (And Newsnight will STILL not believe.)

    What we STILL need is the Celtic blueprint/roadmap for altering the mind-set of a planet'sworth of numpties, so that they see the light and change their ways. (There are some pretty big names who failed, in the last 5000 years - good luck!)

  • Comment number 13.

    #12 Barrie

    /blogs/newsnight/fromthewebteam/2009/07/wednesday_15_july_2009.html

    Principia, Origin of the Species, Special Theory of Relativity, Reflections on Reality.

    Celtic Lion

  • Comment number 14.

    I HAVE TO ADMIT I AM BAFFLED CELTIC (#13)

    I was with you up to '#' but then you lost me.

    Anyone?

    Or as Ö÷²¥´óÐãr would say: "A little help here?"

  • Comment number 15.

    KingCelticLion (#6) Most journalists are trained in the humanities, which means they don't really know how to report at all from a scientist's perspective. Reporting literally is a 'pedantic' or 'prosaic' business from a modern TV journalist's perpective and yet a necessary, 'effective' skill from a scientist's and engineer's perspective.

    As some see it, the two modes of expression are rather like oil and water, chalk and cheese. A scientific researcher reporting like a modern TV journalist would rightly be out of a job very quicky (if detected), or at least, suspected of being 'ill', and vice-versa probably.

  • Comment number 16.

    The Psychology of the Financial Crisis

    In this talk, Professor Barberis will
    discuss the role that irrational thinking
    and decision-making may have played in
    the development of the current economic
    downturn. Drawing on ideas from both
    social and cognitive psychology, he will
    shed light on this relatively neglected
    aspect of the crisis.



  • Comment number 17.

    - LABOUR CAN'T PLAY THREE DIMENSIONAL CHESS-

    For over a decade, too many in the Labour govt & party have demonstrated that they view govt-spending on national defence's main, if not only, purpose is to function as a means to generate votes for Labour from 'make work projects'...

    Typically, during this period major UK defence-projects and equipment acquisition programmes have been so incompetently administered- and so irresponsibly economized- by the Labour govt, it's as though the future defence needs of the nation, its international stature & potential roles on the world stage; and the competent functionality of the defence projects & acquisitions themselves- were considered non-existent priorities- by Labour- in terms of the respective project's/acquisition programmes' objectives...


    Take the Type-45 Destroyer project for example:

    These newly-built warships 'for a 21st century Royal Navy' are almost entirely bereft of the weapons, sensors, communication suites and defences that their designers intended... rendering them practically useless in a modern one-off or on-going conflict...


    Type-45's were intended to be 'multi-role' Destroyers, capable of detecting, assessing, defending-attacks-from and prosecuting actions against threats/targets in ALL 3 spheres of naval warfare: sub-surface; surface and airborne...

    None of the (6) Type-45's that are currently being built and finishing sea-trials can remotely meet these capability-standards...

    Second-hand equipment and obsolescent weapons systems from the RN's present 25-year old, Type-42 Destroyers (and Type-22 and 23 Frigates) are being installed on 'new' Type-45's, so as to save money- in willful disregard to the egregious risks to sailors and those serving on board Type-45's that this presents...

    (... should Type-45's be faced with adversaries possessing moderately up-to-date weaponry...)

    What weapons systems from Type-42's/22's/23's are being installed on Type-45's?

    - The Type-45's Deck Gun,
    is to be a 4-decade old, obsolescent design type, instead of the 'Extended Range Guided Munition' (ERGM) type (pioneered by BAE) that designers intended for all Type-45's produced- at construction-completion and commissioning.

    ERGM rounds have usable ranges in excess of 100 miles- with pinpoint accuracy.

    This compares with barely 20 miles- and comparatively not that accurate or reliable- for the 40-year old design deck guns that are installed or being installed on the 6 Type-45's that are currently being constructed/undergoing sea trials;

    - The Type-45's Close In Weapons System (CIWS)- against designers' specifications, none installed on these warships' at build-completion and at commissioning.

    CIWS's are to be installed to Type-45's- possibly, if money allows- as Type-42's/22's and 23's are retired/decommissioned, and their CIWS's become available for cannibalizing...

    CIWS's are a basic piece of modern warship equipment that defends the ship- Destroyer, Frigate, Aircraft Carrier and the like- against incoming airborne threats such as missiles and aircraft that the respective warship's primary defensive system (missiles) miss or when the respective warship runs out of primary defensive missiles.

    Running out of primary defensive missiles, unfortunately, is something very likely to occur often in the case of Type-45's involved in conflicts, considering their very puny ability to stock primary defensive missiles- only 48- compared to over 360 for the US Navy's Burke batch IIA class Destroyers and over 360 for South Korea's newest model of Destroyer.

    US Navy Burke's and S Korea's newest Destroyer model are similar in type and class warships to Type-45's, and are (when Type-45's are at full load) similar in displacement to Type-45's...;

    - Unlike other navies' warships of this type, Type-45's warship-to-warship and warship to airborne-asset/land-based-asset communications and sensor equipment does not have 'Co-operative Engagement Capability' (CEC)...

    CEC is a sensor data distribution and plot fusion system that provides a huge enhancement to the situational awareness of naval forces/squadrons and their ability to protect themselves against the 'widely acknowledged within the MoD' significant threats posed by up-to-date enemy aircraft and missiles.

    By bringing together all theatre information from all the networked radar in the battle-group- especially from 'over the horizon' areas that the respective Type-45 can not assess due to its superstructure's physical height limitations- the fog-of-war is reduced and the Air Defence Commander is presented with a highly accurate picture of all air target movements that will enable him to engage enemy forces quickly and efficiently.

    Without CEC, the UK's new Type-45 Destroyer's (and the proposed new aircraft carriers) will be severely handicapped when faced with any sort of conflict (one off or ongoing) situation involving adversaries with even moderately up-to-date weaponry...

    - On construction completion Type-45's do not have and on commissioning will not have 'towed array sonar' (TAS)- and will be limited to, comparatively very inferior hull mounted sonar only...

    TAS is recognized by all developed-world military naval designers and theorists as vital for surface ships to defend themselves- and their accompanying ships- against (and to prosecute actions against) sub-surface threats....

    It's accepted knowledge world-wide that hull mounted sonar alone doesn't remotely enable the capabilities of towed array sonar- either by itself or working with hull mounted sonar...

    - Against their designers' stipulations, Type-45's can not even launch torpedoes...

    - Why Type-45's are being built of a size & with on-board facilities capable of embarking/supporting just 1, inferior quality/capability helicopter each, instead of 2 highly capable ones- like other top-tier countries' navy's Destroyers- has never been justified by Labour...

    2 copters are particularly useful to have, if, in the middle of a conflict, 1 copter is lost while the suspected location of a known threat is out of delivery-range of the warship's on-board weapons and sensors- things that Type-45's currently being produced/undergoing sea trials have precious little- and/or none of:

    2 helicopters are also extremely useful to have so that one can be assigned anti-submarine duties while the other is assigned 'Airborne Early Warning and Control' (AWACS) duties*, high above the Type-45 and its accompanying ships scanning the immediate and distant areas- especially OVER THE HORIZON- for threats and theatre data, and relaying this information to the Type-45 and other warships in the group: functions that would not be possible- even if Type-45's were being built capable of embarking and deploying 2 helicopters- due to Type-45's being constructed without 'Co-operative Engagement Capabilities' (CEC)...

    * Aircraft Carrier fixed-wing aircraft-based AWACS are always preferable to helicopter-based AWACS, due to fixed-wing aircraft-based AWACS' vast superiority in capabilities...

    - Type-45's deck space/hanger areas, handling facilities and accommodations for embarked helicopter(s) have been degraded to such an extent*- compared to what Type-45's designers' intended- that Type-45's can not presently embark and deploy the advanced helicopter(s) that Type-45's were designed for... and instead are to be assigned helicopter models that are not 21st century naval warfare capable...

    * landing coordinates' electronics; handling; night-duty equipment and the like....

    The directives that Type-45's be constructed with a virtual void of weaponry, ammunition-capacities & defensive systems have resulted in brand new Royal Navy warships that easily could have been the most potent and effective (for their displacement) of their type in the world- being third-rate 'make-work-projects' at best...

    This deplorable situation could be fixed- and ought to be, post haste- otherwise the country appears as a laughing stalk around the world and one which potential trading partners will side-step in favour of France, Germany and Spain- all of which have burgeoning naval military equipment order books to countries like China, India, Pakistan, Greece, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia (and many middle eastern states), Singapore, Taiwan and many, many others...

    Similarly, steps need to taken immediately to head off the 'pending' Labour Aircraft Carrier project and the Astute and Vanguard-submarine/Trident ICBM replacement projects from ending up international jokes- like the Type-45!!!



    -----------------
    Roderick V. Louis,
    Vancouver, BC, Canada,

  • Comment number 18.

    #14 Barrie

    If you want the "STILL" don't expect me to spoon feed and subsidise your inquisition. If you want the "Celtic blueprint/road map" all that was asked was post packing and printing cost. I didn't ask for the 40 years of my life.

    If it didn't hold up to anything by Galileo, Newton, Darwin or Einstein. Well you get a refund.

    #15 JJ

    Please believe me I understand what you wrote. But please understand I am still a human being. I found the Newsnight intro insulting and humiliating.

    Part of the Apollo gestalt was looking back at the totality of the Earth. If anyone knows more about how this planet operates than myself than I would be grateful if they would inform me, do something about the mess and allow me to clean windows, mend old cars, look after earthworms and hedgehogs.

    The economic system is just a sub system of the planetary system. Not all tyre fitters can stip an engine or calibrate a fuel injection system. But all motor vehicle technicians can change a tyre.

    As Neil Robertson will confirm I am only 30-40 minutes from NN studio in Dundee. Instead of asking me to come and explain, in the limited time available, to a informed layperson but general audience, how double dip recession is applicable to the present global dynamic.

    NN decided to tell the world that "nobody knows the answer to: the double dip recession."

    This is completely and totally untrue. The logic of what NN said is, without even consulting me. By using the nobody, that I don't know. This is insulting and demeaning. Of course I know what a double dip recession is, and applicable to the present situation.

    NN is supposed to be a premier flagship news programme. What they are telling their viewers is not the truth. I don't care whether journalists decide to take a humanities option. Until they had asked me and everyone else in the world, they should not have have said "nobody knows".

    What right right does NN have to tell the country that I don't know what a DD recession is. It is disgraceful. I can't believe how low 'serious' journalism ahas sunk to. Basically making tat up and presenting it as truth.



    Celtic Lion

  • Comment number 19.

    The Children's poet laureate argument in favour of the vetting of writers left me cold.
    The idea that any one who works with children has to be vetted is completly mad. To say that a person who comes to the school to give a lecture or to open the place or what ever has to be vetted the same as a dinner lady or care taker who works at the school on perminante basis is just crazy.
    Of course they are not the same and to suggest that its some sort of class thing and a need for equality is stupid and down right fashist in a way and divisive.
    The argument he used are the same as the national front about them not being racist.
    The idea that we should all be treated the same no matter what the cost in money or damage it will do our society to treat every one equaly is just plain crazy. We are not all the same, we are not all equal, there is not a need to vet every one.
    Abuse of children occurers when people have on going contact not one off contacts in public exposed places in front of the school assembley or do we think that the writers may intice the children into an sex orgy or something?
    The truth is that the out of controle situation we have with our children in the UK to day is a direct result of this sort of mad data base politically correct vetting culture. It is this that has lead to adults abdicating their responsability to disaplin,controle and make boundrys for the children in our society.
    Its time adults took back controle of our society. Just as we the adults need to take back controle of our police force, and our goverment as they are just as out of controle. As witnessed by the G8 killing and the the expenses row. No wonder the children are out of controle what do they have to look up to not much.

  • Comment number 20.

    The Public's Response to the Recession as a Parallel to Combating Climate Change:

    It really is baffling that those who accept (like today's Newsnight's guests did) the public will, in a dreadfully selfish manner, concentrate, over the next few years, on reducing their debts and not spend their money on 'big ticket' items, so not helping retail and manufacturing, can't apply the same logic to the aim of 'combating climate change'.

    The parallel is clear to see. Alongside not 'doing their bit' for high-street borrowing and spending, haven't the public clearly shown their complete disregard for reducing their respective 'carbon footprints'? Haven't they comprehensively thumbed their noses at the environmentalists and their cronies in the leftie media, valiantly resisting their attempts at brain-washing? I've noticed the roads I drive on are still clogged with cars and the supermarkets I buy from are still filled with food from around the world. The aeroplanes I fly on are also always full, too.

    In the last few days, the public's concern for the risks from 'swine' flu have grown substantially and understandably, but the same public appear to be wholly ignorant of the greater dangers posed by the silent, more deadly and, so far, undetected 'environmentalist' flu. More attention should be paid to this. Although it is a highly-localised outbreak, concentrated in certain corners of our capital and unlikely to spread, the damage it could do is immense. Already, incontrovertible evidence of the harm it has done, so far, portends far worse. The most severe symptom to look out for is the lobotomising of the part of the brain responsible for rational thinking and those affected could, if not stopped, turn Labour's legacy of twenty years of 'sluggish growth' into a 'flatline' economy, affecting a generation and plunging further hundreds of thousands of the poorest Britons into poverty.

    Someone should tell the socialists, in their zeal for creating the 'next economy' on the back of 'combating climate change', you don't need to guarantee a market for 'green' technologies - e.g. blanketing the country in useless windmills - to encourage the development of new industries and the creation of long-lasting jobs. A low tax, low regulation and skilled workforce would do. It's an irony, lost on these people, like so many ironies, that they have spent the past twelve years creating the opposite. Their dream car - the Tesla - could have been produced here, rather than in a Bush-era U.S. - which is another one of the ironies.

    If only the common-sense voices on the economy could apply the same common sense to environmentalism.

  • Comment number 21.

    - LABOUR CAN'T PLAY THREE DIMENSIONAL CHESS-

    QUALIFICATION/ADDITION:


    Where I say above- "... Running out of primary anti-airborne threat defensive missiles, unfortunately, is something very likely to occur often in the case of Type-45's involved in conflicts, considering their very puny ability to stock this type of missile- only 48- compared to over 360 for the US Navy's Burke batch IIA class Destroyers and over 360 for South Korea's newest model of Destroyer..." to be most of use this statement probably ought to be backed up with some facts:

    Warships' primary anti-airborne threat defensive missiles can't be stored and fired from open, 'bare deck' locations... they have to stocked and launched from specialized hardware, hardware that runs deep into the respective warship's superstructure...

    In the case of modern Aircraft Carriers, Frigates and Destroyers such as the Type-45, or the S Korean Navy's newest Destroyer model or US Navy Burkes'- their primary anti-airborne threat defensive missiles have to be stored and launched from 'canisters', each one containing up to (usually) 8 separate missile-storage slots... (each slot 20 to 24 feet or more in depth)

    Both Type-45's and Burkes' use different manufacturers' primary anti-airborne threat defensive missiles... and both Type-45's and Burkes' missiles come in two variants: medium and long-range...

    The medium and long range variants of the US Navy's Burkes' primary anti-air-borne threat missiles and their corresponding Type-45's primary anti-air threat missiles are very similar in range, speed, weight and warhead capabilities...

    An important difference between Type-45's and Burkes' is that they use different manufacturers' missile storage canisters/launchers: Type-45's a France-produced type- that has some very handicapping limitations...

    Burkes' not surprisingly are all built with a widely recognized as excellent missile canister/launcher from an American company- a model that is exceedingly versatile in terms of the 'types' of missiles it will accommodate-

    IE: US Navy Burkes' missile canisters/launchers have the capability to store and launch not only anti air-borne threat primary defensive missiles, but also can store and launch sub-surface target, land-target and anti-ship missiles- armed with tactical conventional and/or nuclear warheads....

    Type-45's missile canisters/launchers can not store and/or launch sub-surface target, land-target and anti-ship missiles...

    Burkes' missile canisters/launchers ALSO are capable of storing & launching up to 4 primary anti-air threat defensive missiles (medium range variant) per canister 'missile slot'.

    The France-produced canisters' missile slots that Type-45's are being built with are limited to only one medium-range missile per slot...


    Each of the France produced and the US-company produced missile canister's missile slots can store and launch both the medium and long range variants of the respective warship's primary anti-airborne threat missiles...

    But, the US-company produced canister missile slots can be 'quad packed' IE: each slot will each store and launch (4) medium range or one long range missile...

    Unfortunately, Type-45's canisters' missile slots have no such 'quad packing' capability: each Type-45 canister missile slot will accommodate either (1) long range or only (1) medium range anti air-borne threat missile... a severe disadvantage if faced with adversaries possessing a modicum of common sense and access to widely internationally marketed up-to-date anti-ship missiles...

    Considering the vast differences of capabilities and uses between the types of missile storage canisters Burkes' and Type-45's are being built/equipped with, it should come as no surprise that during the design and initial construction phases of the Type-45 programme, many in the MoD were lobbying, albeit unsuccessfully, for Type-45's to be built with the same primary missile canisters as used by US Navy Burkes (and by S Korea's newest Destroyer model)...

    Functionality ought to be the main determining factor for decision makers in weapons' programmes- whether UK-built or acquired from foreign sources- not cost effectiveness...

    Persons involved with the Strategic Defence Review ought to be considering this position during the writing of the SDR's preliminary and final reports... and their contained recommendations...


    Roderick V. Louis,
    Vancouver, BC, Canada

  • Comment number 22.

    barrie (#14) "I was with you up to '#' but then you lost me. Anyone? Or as Ö÷²¥´óÐãr would say: "A little help here?""

    It appears to me that KCL wants to be wanted. This is not a bad quality in itself, just one which is not much in demand in our anarchistic/narcissistic times (see unemployment figures and other indices of our dysfunctional society).

    SPOIL PARTY GAMES (I'm not , unless it's the PRC's party ;-).

  • Comment number 23.

    KCL (#18) "NN decided to tell the world that "nobody knows the answer to: the double dip recession."

    All they really meant is that nobody can predict the economic future for certain unless they've been there, which is true, as nobody can time travel.

    Are you implying that you can time travel? If so, I doubt they'll invite you onto NN.

  • Comment number 24.

    Celtic Lion
    re: your response of last night
    Thanks, will be in touch

  • Comment number 25.

    plaistwopeter (#19) See #15. People employed (gainfully or not) in schools have to be CRB checked. Trust writers/reporters to make a contentious issue out of this. If it turned out that someone who had not been CRB checked did something offensive in a school, they'd be up in arms about that too!

  • Comment number 26.

    JJ #2

    "If the Afghans don't like the Taleban, why aren't they fielding hundreds of thousands of their people against them? "

    Because Afghanistan is 'tribal'? Warlord against warlord. United they might stand, divided they can only fall. Same in Iraq, Shiites v Sunnis. Hopeless, see Africa.

    Now, about why UK is set to be divi'd up into nice manageable little chunks...

  • Comment number 27.

    #22 #23 JJ

    Close but remember your knowledge of the history of science. Mendel's work 'stayed in a drawer for years' because nobody could see the significance.

    Relate this to Darwin's work, look at the time lag between production and general awareness.

    I think it is import to differentiate between the self or ego and the project. This in part is related to scientific objectivity. If we are in a situation where we are looking at the imminent deaths of 6 billion people and the extinction of all higher life forms. Then does it not make sense that a solution, that is 'a' not 'the', which exists separate to me, is made available.

    If Barrie wants access to that, have a read etc. Then he can have it. It is not unreasonable for post, packing and printing in return. Fair exchange is no robbery. What if 1 million want it, I cannot afford 1 million stamps and envelops.

    Economic systems can be predicted. It is the modelling philosophy which needs consideration. It is not time travel but time relocation. There are an infinite number of potential future trajectories available from this point in time.

    Some of these are short ordering, ie they will terminate quickly. Eg an elementary particle popping in and out of existence of the background matrix of the universe. These are what CERN look for.

    Or you have a longer ordering trajectory. The big bang, supernova star, formation of the solar system, you, me and others on this blog. 14 billion years in that model of development trajectory.

    So then we run projections into the future. Some with terminate quickly, some may evolve to infinity. The longer ones are used as datum to assess others.

    If the economy does not relate to long ordering systems then it will terminate. So it's future can be predicted. It is not time travel, but establishing attractor points in the hyperspace, in the space time continuum. Like setting up a belay point rock climbing, then advancing towards that. Ordering systems are relocated in time.

    But I shouldn't need to write all this as the full assessment is available for p&p and printing.

    There is no pretence that this is an alternative as in Conservative to Labour or Lid Dem or BNP to Green. This quantum leaping in it's proper sense. Conceptual development as in Darwin, Einstein etc.

    It is not time travel but time relocation. Effective futures are brought from attractor points in space time and to the present.

    Consider the alternative. Do you want Newsnight to write on this blog in 3 years time. 6 billion people will die because of the imminent collapse of the planet's ecological life support system, because no one knew it would happen or had a solution. That will be untrue as you already know that now, so you can be part of relocating to another sustainable development trajectory, so that outcome does not manifest. Simple.

    To stop that happening I don't really think a request for postage etc is unreasonable. We will eventually require $13.6 trillion, but even that is not unreasonable to prevent the extinction of all higher life on Earth.



    Celtic Lion

  • Comment number 28.

    NewFazer (#26) "Now, about why UK is set to be divi'd up into nice manageable little chunks..."

    Ah, yes, (aka Regional Development Agencies/Assemblies in my view)...

    I think the BNP and UKIP may have a thing or two to say about that in the EU? I suspect the likes of Danny Finkelstein will not be saying very appreciative words about them if and when he's given the opportunity to do so on the NN Politics Panel? Divide, democratize and sell (as in sub-prime loans) appears to be the agenda, spun as 'freedom of choice' and protection from the evil granny state.

  • Comment number 29.

    FRAGILITY OF THE HUMAN PSYCHE

    At every turn I find Homo Sapiens to be incompetent beyond the small subsistence group, with a taboo limited level of technology.

    Once we broke out of that, it seems, we were doomed to arrive here: clever but without wisdom - fouling our only nest.

    I believe we are driving ourselves mad (see R D Laing on schooling) at an ever-increasing rate, and exporting the maddening ethos to those we 'conquer'. Should the nutty Taliban be displaced, our precepts will drive Afghanistan - as a whole - as mad as we are.

    Weep Islaam.

  • Comment number 30.

    KCL (#27) "If we are in a situation where we are looking at the imminent deaths of 6 billion people and the extinction of all higher life forms. Then does it not make sense that a solution, that is 'a' not 'the', which exists separate to me, is made available."

    I have theory which predicts that 6 billion people are going to die in the imminent future (~100 years). Do you think NN should invite me on to explain?

    Meanwhile, hot-lines have been set up so that the concerned public can call in with their fears about swine-flu induced by the media, and GPs are now being encouraged to diagnose using their 'clinical judgement' alone. As a consequence, the diagnosis of swine flu is increasing.....

    ;-(

  • Comment number 31.

    WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE (#30)

    I think they should rush a suicide law through. If we can kill ourselves slowly and painfully (expensively X 2) with alcohol and tobacco, why not have suipopoffs in Tescos!

    You know it makes sense.

  • Comment number 32.

    #23 JJ

  • Comment number 33.

    barrie (#29) Here's a video link to a non-madman. It's very important to appreciate that since the 70s (when this view was still de rigueur in academia) it's as if hordes of mad people have been released who behave quite at odds with what was said here. It really is most odd, but this really is what's happened since Thatcher and her anarchistic 'advisors' had a makeover which presented thems as sane.

  • Comment number 34.

    THE FLANDERS TWINS (#33)

    All I got from the link was a Flanders and Flanders kugelfest on the economy, and what we don't know. A little help?

  • Comment number 35.

    Help

  • Comment number 36.

    #35

    he is a bit limited, imposing artifical divisions on reality where there need to be none etc.

  • Comment number 37.

    barrie (#34) Have you been cyber-snipped? The link should have taken you to post #73 and the first link in that. It's worth the time.

    PS. I am consulting my imaginary intellectual propery rights lawyer to see if I can sue you for nicking my idea in #31! ;-)

  • Comment number 38.

    KingCelticLion (#36) Are you angling for a cell in the GULAG!!!??

  • Comment number 39.


    Gordon Brown announced yesterday, that the Government has ordered 60 million doses of the H1N1 flu vaccine, enough to vaccinate everyone in the UK. What he has neglected to mention is what would happen to the UK's vaccine supply if the H1N1 strain mutates and becomes more severe than it currently is.
    The UK has no vaccine manufacturing facility within the country and is solely dependent on supplies manufactured in Europe by GlaxoSmithKline PLC and Baxter International Inc., whose production plants are in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic. These three countries have a combined population of over 100 million.
    If the H1N1 virus becomes more virulent before the UK's delivery of vaccine has been produced and delivered, it is not conceivable that the political establishment in these production countries would allow vaccine to be exported to other countries before first inoculating their own populations; if they did there would be total anarchy. Just like any contract I have ever seen I am sure that the vaccine producers have a get out clause which will allow them to divert pre ordered doses to their own population.
    A recent news item stated that the production process of producing the vaccine has proved to be not as successful as was hoped, adding even more pressure to the supply chain. In past years these manufactures have had serious difficulty in producing enough vaccine to support the regular Global flu season, so what are the chances that they will be able to produce sufficient quantities of the regular flu season vaccine and enough H1N1 vaccine to inoculate the world's population. The production of flu vaccine requires a lead time of about six months before the season begins; assuming the production of the H1N1 vaccine was started within a month of the Mexico outbreak in May the first vaccine would not be available until November.
    We have been told that we will receive our first vaccine doses at the end of August, and the first sector of the population to receive it will be members of essential services, Doctors, nurses, police, fire, government etc. From this fact we are looking at around 5million doses, if we extrapolate these figures for just the European Union which has a population of 1/2 a billion people it would require a minimum of 35 million doses off the top just to keep essential services running. If we add the 100 million doses the three countries that produce the vaccine, will need to protect their own population we are looking at 135 million doses required before the public see one dose for themselves. This figure does not even take into account the 300 million doses ordered by the USA
    The point is we are not being told the truth, the numbers just don't add up. We as a population are being fed this Pandemic in bite sized sound bites. The effect to the Worlds already weak economy will be catastrophic. Our only hope is that the N1H1 virus becomes no more virulent than it already is, because the alternative is something I don't even want to consider.

  • Comment number 40.

    HELICOPTERS

    With all this discussion in the media about UK troops getting more helicopters to move troops about more safely. It is good the the Taliban don't have any access at all to the media.

    Other wise demand for parts for IEDs would decrease and there would be an increase in sales of rocket launchers on the international arms black market.

  • Comment number 41.

    #12 Barrie

    "There are some pretty big names who failed, in the last 5000 years - good luck!"

    Precisely. The first rule of project management is that the project manager at a critical point having initiated the project should be able to walk away into anonymity and be forgotten. It is the project which lives on and is remembered.

    Celtic Lion

  • Comment number 42.

    #24 Mimpromptu

    Thankyou. If you put this in Google:

    more shipbuilding for the right purpose



    you will find the right place

    Celtic Lion

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