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Too much dissent for an election?

Michael Crick | 21:49 UK time, Tuesday, 13 January 2009

After two days back at Westminster Government whips face two fairly serious bouts of dissent.

The first is on the proposed third runway for Heathrow, on which the Cabinet held what Downing Street describes a "brief" and "constructive" discussion this morning. The two biggest Cabinet critics of the runway plans, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn, both voiced their opposition in strong terms, and it was agreed they would go away and try and resolve their differences in discussions tonight with the Transport Secretary Geoff Hoon. That debate is still unresolved, I understand, which means a government announcement on the third runway isn't likely until next week. But the fear among government whips in the lobbies tonight, I'm told, was that the Conservatives would exploit Labour divisions by putting down a motion on Heathrow on their opposition Day next Wednesday.

The second, and bigger outbreak of dissent - with some rebels in common - is over Peter Mandelson's proposed part privatisation of the Post Office. Labour MPs who are unhappy about this have been invited to meet Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, early tomorrow afternoon.

A Commons motion against Mandelson's Post Office plans, has already attracted the signatures of 70 Labour MPs. The motion won't officially be tabled until tomorrow (Wednesday) when the rebels expect to attract a lot more Labour names.

In the end, however, neither rebellion is likely to succeed. The Heathrow runway doesn't require Parliamentary approval, and the Conservatives support the part-privatisation of Royal Mail, in principle at least.

More significant perhaps is what this shows about the current state of politics.

In the words of a Labour backbencher who is heavily involved in both protests: "Would any of this argument be taking place if Labour MPs really thought there was going to be an early election?"

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Until recently, the Heathrow debate has been modernisers v. environmentalists. In the new economic climate, it has the potential to become one of the big infrastructure projects that Labour wants to reduce the fast growing unemployment figures, so it takes on a new dimension. The Post Office proposals will continue to attract hostility unless Mandelssohn comes up with something which embraces at least job protection if not continuity of service. Neither should be an issue to bring a government down.

    However, after nearly 12 years in power, evidence of deep dissatisfaction amongst the electorate and falling support for Labour, I think it is fundamentally dishonest of them to cling to power as long as possible. The perception of Brown as the global visionary of world economics is having the gloss washed off of it one a daily basis. I would be inclined to go to the country sooner and risk defeat than later when utter humiliation would seem inevitable.

  • Comment number 2.

    Why would Brown risk electoral wipeout when he can hang on for eighteen months, it can only get better the longer he waits and if it gets much worse he will be out anyway so the Brown logic goes like 'dump me if you dare but I'll take a lot of you with me'

  • Comment number 3.

    The problem with the runway and climate change is that the passing of a global crude oil production peak in 2006, recorded in BP's Statistical Review, has been ignored. Indeed BP's chief economist has gone to great lengths to deny that that it will ever happen.

    There is also a reluctance to accept that coal is running out fast, at least the best grades. There is less dissent about the peaking of gas and once Russia's internal demand exceeds its dwindling production, the valve to Europe will be permanently closed in ten years or so. Uranium production is stagnant and the lights will soon be going out in France as it depends too much on nuclear and imported electricity from others with gas!

    So a change of lifestyle and our economic course is needed and neither the greens nor the main parties are able to produce policies to cope with fossil fuel depletion. Climate change will be alleviated by the run down of fuels, not by any action or new technology.

    The Post will have to give way to emails as there will be no fuel for the red vans.

    I fear that reality will dawn too late, even though orders for aircraft are being cancelled and 26 modern aircraft are parked at Basingstoke. If the runways are built they will provide convenient parking place for the rest!

    I have been trying to get this over since the fuel protests in 2000- I suppose it's too unpleasant a medicine to be taken!!

  • Comment number 4.

    One would have thought the thousands of published job losses today alone - meaning that countless more thousands have lost their jobs today in dribs and drabs as opposed to headline grabbing losses - is perhaps the more likely reason why an election looks less and less likely with each day that passes.

    Stupid and arrogant comments about "green shoots" from the likes of Baroness Vadera only compounds the feeling amongst much of the Public that the Government is out of touch, unfeeling and has no idea how ordinary people fear for their futures in this recession come depression.

    Michael, comments such as "More significant perhaps is what this shows about the current state of politics" can also be seen as being out of touch as tens of millions of people go to work each day wondering if they will still have a job at the end of the week. They don't give a monkeys about the current state of politics or the other trivial things in Westminster that many Ö÷²¥´óÐã journalists appear obsessed with.

    Alas, I fear only a P45 will make many of you stop and realise what is actually going on in the real World but that isn't going to happen to all your Public Sector employees at the Beeb is it!?

  • Comment number 5.

    So now we know, announced in time honoured fashion by

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