主播大秀

Here's a tip -
If average house prices rise above 3 x average income, then a bubble is forming.....which, if left unchecked, will eventually burst......and blow a hole in the nation's balance sheet....and, in Latvia's case, sink it.

When will people learn that rising house prices are not good?
Houses are necessities and their price must be kept affordable.
Capitalism can exist without treating houses as price appreciating assets.

We keep being told by the authorities that we are getting better at spotting asset bubbles. I gues they said the same thing after Tulip Mania, The South Sea Bubble and the Dot.Com bust.

Paul,

What you're describing is what is happening to individuals and small companies, but on a national scale: the multinational conglomerates sneeze, but the smaller countries and their economies catch pneumonia.

In Soviet times, Latvia was generally "off-limits" to Western visitors, having much industry that was crucial to that empire. Now I guess there's an air of dereliction as production has moved on. Sic transit etc.


Still, if you're "into" cars or just the limousines of the Soviet leaders (and in particular the driving "skills" of one Leonid Breznyev), I can thoroughly recommend a visit to the motor museum on the outskirts of Riga.


Not sure if I should be congratulating you on being listed for the Orwell prize. I always thought that it was "kept in the family" - does it mean that you share a common purpose with that Peston fellow these days?

Opening up the link, I see your column is tenth in the list - so glad it wasn't the fifth...

Market meltdown refutes 'efficient markets' theory

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the idea of efficient markets is behind everyone of the Govt's ideas from PFI to targets. yet it is a discredited false belief.

yet Gordon still plays word games on itsnotmegov.co.uk

"He plans to cut public sector wages by 20% - after his predecessor already had to cut them by 15%."

At least he is taking appropriate steps and not "quantitative easing"!

It is ridiculous for us not to be doing the same things.

The Latvian economy will bounce back quickly whilst our wonderful experts will give us a generation long depression! (See the Long Depression 1873-1896)

Question What are Latvian interest rates? - Just looked it up 2 percent or 400 percent of ours! Thus we must be in 4 times a worse condition than they are!!!!

#4

We are caught in a pre-election period, the private sector is taking wage cuts and short time working and watching retirement funds wiped out.

All the while the bloated public sector still enjoys pay rises and pensions you can not buy anywhere (and which we as a nation can not afford either).

Nobody is prepared to make tough decisions to curb this, least of all labour, even the Tories are afraid as the bloated civil service represents such a huge voting block they think they can ill afford to alienate ahead of any election.

We have another bubble forming in this country, the most dangerous bubble of all, it is a 'denial' bubble and we are busy pumping it up with promises that can not be kept and debts that we have nothing to sell to pay back.

There was huge momentum behind the financial bubble so huge that it is taking along time to unwind. it is taking do long to unwind that it also helps keep the 'denial' bubble inflated. A short severe shock (like latvia) would probably have been better for us long term.

Enjoy your Trip, see if you can find a sharp pin of some description when you are over there, we could use one over here.

Jericoa

Another false ECONOMY built on SAND just

like GORDYS BRITAIN?

Wow, those are some stats. Hard to imagine Brown being able to enforce any kind of paycut on public sector. Thinking about it he'd argue it's a non-starter as public sector pay causes inflation and thus must be an excellent remedy to deflation.

At any rate, another excellent blog based on in the field investigation Paul! Keep up the good work, you're getting a loyal following it seems, even if it is, so far, small.

Oh an aside - have you had a chance to enjoy some Common Purpose training along with Robert Peston? (See report here: /fivelive/programmes/jonathanmaitland.shtml%29

What does it really mean for a country to go 'bankrupt'? Have any done so? This word has a lot of emotional content and sounds terrible, but does it really have a meaning in reference to countries? If not, wouldn't it be better to avoid the usage?

No. 8. JSMosby

A country is bankrupt if it's government has spent more than it can collect through taxation.

Britain was bankrupt after World War II and again towards the end of the 1970s.

Others include Argentina c1989, the Weimar Republic, and more recently Iceland.

It does happen, you know....

With 70% of population living in the cities and agriculture destroyed, Latvia became Europe鈥檚 鈥淏anana republic鈥� long time ago. Latvian government decided to get more money for budget by rising VAT taxes from 18% to 21%, and it鈥檚 in time when whole Europe fighting crisis tried to keep their taxes low. The sole Latvian private bank got government鈥檚 bailout, but some of Bank鈥檚 property was already 鈥渢ransferred鈥� to another company, owned by Bank owner's (now ex-owner) son. One of leading political parties uses the Central Market of Riga, the biggest market in Europe, as 鈥渕oney laundry鈥�. So many other interesting things are going on, just need to read the local news. This country is corrupted not surprising it is bankrupt. Shame for simple citizens, who has to suffer.

Ni Mr. Paulson !

I am really surprised at what you have said at the end of this article, 鈥� if East Europe goes bankrupt it will drag west European banks with it 鈥�.

Was not it the other way, around this time around. If it were not to the mismanagement and bankruptcies of many Western Financial institutions, Eastern European countries and companies would not have been in this dare situation now.

If they interlocked itself with the future economic mega states like Russia, Chine and India they would not have been in this situation today. Because, Western countries simple do not posses any resources, be it natural or human, to compete successfully in the future against such giants like those Big 3.

#11

It is nice to get an alternative perspective on here. Personally I agree with what you are saying, its the trade imbalance i.e. the 'real stuff' we have been living off fancy bits of paper in the west for some time.

What if all our suppliers ( eastern europe, Russia, China/ far east, middle east) suddenly decide our paper is not worth the paper it is written on ?

I will tell you what will happen, living standards in the west will re-align themselves to be closer to those in the east and the far east.

Extremely scary for us, business as usual for you guys, a part of me thinks if that does happen we brough a large part of it upon ourselves.

keep posting please

Jericoa