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Labour Manifesto: VAT rise left open

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Paul Mason | 13:10 UK time, Monday, 12 April 2010

There is some kerfuffle right now about what Labour's manifesto launch means for VAT. The wording of the manifesto is clear: there'll be no extension of VAT to the commodities it currently excludes. But there is no commitment to rule out raising the rate of VAT itself.

The reason this is important, which we keep coming back to, is that out of Labour's deficit reduction plan, totalling £90bn of adjustments by 2014, there is on the most generous interpretation an £18bn gap between spending cuts needed and spending cuts announced.

Some within Labour wanted Gordon Brown to rule out a VAT rise, signalling the hole would indeed be filled by spending cuts. The Mirror's Kevin Maguire has been loudly agitating for this, which he believed would have killed of the Conservative momentum on NICs.

However the Manifesto has to be read as a clear signal that Labour retains the option to raise VAT. A VAT increase brings you between £6bn and £9bn a year and - if everything else goes as planned - brings you within striking distance of balancing the books.

Gordon Brown made two attempts to answer journalists' questions: the first, I summarise, was "look at our record - we have not raised VAT since 1997"; the second was to say that Labour's budget plans were "costed on the basis of not raising VAT".

This was read by some journalists in the hall as a semi-guarantee not to raise VAT. But the Budget 2010 was also costed on this basis.

That budget contains an 18bn credibility gap (and to be fair the Conservative announced tax plans are no clearer).

Interestingly the page summarising Labour's fiscal commitments is clearly a late addition to the manifesto (page 0.6 since you ask). It is at the end of the first section, and is typographically completely different to the rest of the document. It has clearly been recently updated to include Labour's attack line from last Thursday on the "£15bn efficiency savings this year".

Since no party has ruled out raising VAT, and since VAT is the only way to raise extra tax if you rule out raising income tax (and corporation tax take remains depressed because of low growth and business flight), I think it is fair to read these signals as a sign that a VAT rise is a distinct possibility under any of the three main parties.

Indeed you could say Labour is positioning itself to say: if we do raise it, it will not hurt the poorest because of the exemptions.

I will come back to some of the detailed pledges. The Cadbury's Law is there, across two separate sections. Channel Four and the Royal Mail seem safe from privatisation if Labour gets in.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Paul,

    There was talk, a short while back, of VAT being applied to food (sold at retail) and childrens clothing. It was seriously being considered within Whitehall.

    This would surely hit the poorest in society the hardest.

    As has previously been mentioned, this would amount to a tax on living.

    'Shoppers could face VAT on food'


    What are the party positions on this?

  • Comment number 2.

    A carefully selected VAT increase is probably the best way to start to move to a sustainable economic base along with strategic investment in sustainable energy infrastructure which would generate many jobs and secure the future for our children.

    92p of every £ spent on construction is retained in the UK and every £1 invested by the exchequer yields a return of 56p via taxation leaving a net investment of anly 44p.

    If that is targeted in sustainable energy infrastructure the investment is even better as you are building a legacy of 'free' non poluuting power for our children. We are not talking the odd windfarm here we are talking Severn barrages, huge tidal and current farms and other things that harness that ultimate free energy source ... the moons gravity.

    We would have to tear up agood deal of the beurocracy which currently chokes these projects off before they get off the ground though... also a good thing.

    I dont know what is so difficult about that for politicians to grasp!

    Tax the stuff we dont need and is generally bought by those whom have too much anyway (and will pay more for it anyway as it is a status thing with them not a 'basic needs' thing).. use the revenues to build a sustainable energy infrastructure for our kids and in so doing generate tens of thousands of jobs and set us free from the global fights over energy sources to come in the near future ( remember Iraq anyone .. oh sorry that was about WMD.. i keep forgetting .. silly me).

    What is so difficult about the idea above in a world where oil prices will continue to go up in a country that no longer has very much of it has less and less of it by the year, needs more and more of it, is overpopulated and is over reliant on 'financial services' and other such fragile generators of 'income' (as oppose to value).

    Can you have a quiet word with the powers that be please Paul, this is important stuff and clearly the lawyers and bankers and estate agents who run the show just dont get it.

    Who knows it may even win someone an election and do the nation some good... wouldn't that be nice.

    It is within out technological grasp to use the last gasps of energy from the dying old economic system and the technology it helped dreate to build something new and inspiring, something worth getting out of bed in the morning for, something that makes a real positive difference.

    Where is the vision, honesty and conviction?

    Where is it?

    It can be done, it must be done or the consequences will be unthinkable.. possibly within our own lifetimes.

    Wake up someone.

  • Comment number 3.

    We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them.*

    I do not believe that the majority of the people standing for election to Parliament, be they Tory, Labour, Liberal, Scots Nat, Plaid or the Baked Bean Party, well perhaps the Baked Bean Party excepted, truly understand the enormity of the deficit and what fundamental changes must be done to the UK on so many economic, social and financial levels.

    We need great people with great ideas - we don't deserve this, how can I describe it, petty bickering.

    They beat around the bush either ignorant or in denial of the issues, or out of fear of actually telling the electorate how bad things are will mean they will not get elected, under the misguided illusion that millions of us are as naive as themselves.

    The British People are not stupid!

    Talk to any business person, talk to any self-employed person, talk to anyone hoping to buy a home, talk to anyone in the private sector coming up to retirement having seen their pension destroyed... the list goes on... and they will tell you just how bad things are. They are really bad - only the Public Sector workforce seems oblivious to this.

    The distance between the People and the would-be Parliamentarians is truly astounding. Listening to them argue around the financial 'edges' of the economy was a joke at first but now it is becoming frigthening.

    We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them.*




    * From the 1995 film 'The American President'.

  • Comment number 4.

    An increase in VAT would surely be disastrous to a fragile recovery of an economy built on consumerism?

  • Comment number 5.

    #3 tawse57 wrote:


    'The British People are not stupid!'

    ----------------------------------------

    I think you'll find they are!....as 'statist' has pointed out
    ad infinitum.

    /blogs/newsnight/paulmason/2010/03/what_is_being_done_to_fix_brit.html

    ...and the problem is only getting worse!

  • Comment number 6.

    #4

    and your alternative is?

    I have an idea!!

    To further stimulate consumerism we have already had a scheme where we destroy perfectly good cars so we buy new ones, how about we issue a law to knock off 2 days / months etc as appropriate from the sell by date of all food.

    That way even more perfectly good food will get thrown away and therefore has to be replaced by more stuff that gets thrown away so we can keep consumerism going and generate more poinless jobs so they can have disposalble income to buy more and more stuff to throw away ever faster as we get more and more efficient at making it?

    Sound like a winner?


    Smart VAT proportional to the sustainability of a product has to be the way forward, we either proactively embrace it now or have it enforced on us later by the markets in different form as comodities prices continue to creep up in the pointless quest for 'growth' on a planet with finite resources.

    Helllooooooo

    Anyone out there?



    Sound like a good idea?

  • Comment number 7.

    VAT is regressive where as income tax is progressive but obviously there are limits to what people will bear. An alternative is a carbon tax partially counter balance by reduced VAT to 15%(it is absurd that domestic energy is actually rated at only 5%) For the poor there would have to be counter measures in terms of benefits and tax credits/allowances. There could be a progressing switch from VAT to a carbon Tax (abolishing road fund licence in the process).

    Cheer up, Gordon has given us and "absolute assurance" about VAT that Labour did not put it up since 1997. Surely that is enough said? You are a suspicious lot!

  • Comment number 8.

    Increasing VAT is not a wise move for any government. As for Labour's manifesto; I do not believe for one moment that; once in power again; they will honour their promises, it will be more control, more waste, more spin, more red tape and more New Labour. What Labour should be doing is to remove the bureaucrats; pen pushers; legislators; meddlers who are strangling the nation with paperwork and obstructions to run a business. The fact is; and the PM avoids this; is that he as Chancellor did not save for the rainy day; considering that the Tories left them with money in the bank; they have sqaundered huge sums that should have been spent carefully on public services. Labour will say anything now just to hold onto their jobs. Politicians are all the same animal but wearing different clothing. Labour are completely out of touch with the public and; certainly small businesses; thousands of whom have ended up under Labour bankrupt; had to demolish buildings; spend their own hard earnt cash to pay NDR to pay a government that Britain has never before seen the likes of and certainly do not want them in again for another five years of misery. Once in power; they will please themselves again and change their manifesto to suit themselves and be damned to those who put them into power again; just numbers on chittys to be ticked off. Two wars must have cost the nation an absolute fortune; money that should have been spent on public services.......the list goes on and on; as long as your arm.....Labour is not good at government; they are; I repeat myself....Dangerous Social Engineers who are conducting an experiment on a colossal scale and the pawns are you and I; the public.

  • Comment number 9.

    Right on Tawse!

    'We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them.'

    And we need serious and bold media people for that.

    Because currently the politicians feed then media guff which they then (as here) obligingly regurgitate or possibly assess as serious stuff, but its still just guff.

    I don't hear anyone where I live having intense arguments about VAT. I do hear talk about jobs going to cheap foreign workers while UK people are on the dole, earnings leaving the country and tax not being paid, huge welfare and health and education bills for migrants, and housing shortage; money going to bankers (no we havent forgotten) and wholesale political corruption.

    The British people can deal with recessions, hardships, yes even increased VAT - but not with lying politicians working for other interests.

    Why do politicians keep telling us that migration is good for the economy when this is belied both by the state of the economy and the unemployment figures.


    And nothing is safe from privatisation while Mandelson, working for big money across the world, is around. Guff.




  • Comment number 10.

    THE NET MIGRATION FACTOR THAT CHOOSES NOT TO SPEAK ITS NAME (#9)

    "Why do politicians keep telling us that migration is good for the economy when this is belied both by the state of the economy and the unemployment figures"

    The Labour Weasels keep trimming any migration figure by shouting about a the million who Emigrated. What is never mentioned, is the English/Manglish exchange. If we export (largely) English speakers, and import Manglish (at best) speakers, the strain on UK life must be increased.

    Just another weasely way beloved of our honourable 'members'.

  • Comment number 11.

    #4 Debt Juggler "An increase in VAT would surely be disastrous to a fragile recovery of an economy built on consumerism?"
    Exactly why it should be brought in.
    Not only do we need to pay off government debt, rebalance structural deficit and solve the immediate and very large economic problems. We need to rebalance the economy away from consumption, to increase saving and investment and paying off private debt.
    Some of this will be achieved by selling off the bank shares purchased, public sector cuts etc., but as Paul points out a hole remains. A rise in VAT will provide an immediate incentive to save rather than spend (couple it with a raise in ISA limits for good measure). It will make imports more expensive without alarming EU as a tariff. The burden, though regressive, will be widely shared. If you don't want to pay the tax you have a choice, just don't spend on that Hello Kitty pencil case your kid just saw, that extra handbag you don't need, those cool shades you simply must have. It will force motoring costs up, but that is no bad thing if it reduces pollution generally. I've long predicted this measure and would be surprised if it wasn't put up to a 20% rate.

  • Comment number 12.

    #10 "Why do politicians keep telling us that migration is good for the economy when this is belied both by the state of the economy and the unemployment figures"
    The reason is because to achieve economic growth (i.e. improve or maintain your standard of living) in the economy in the long term there needs to be an increase/stability in the working age population. Otherwise you will get a demographic effect already being seen through the pension crisis and starkly in Japan. The whole of Europe including the Med countries are all seeing declines in working age population and face a long term fall in economic output if not addressed. The solution (apart from encouraging indigenous population to have more children) is to allow immigration. The economy and markets see no skin colour. Provided the immigrants work (and the majority do, whatever the Daily Mail tells you) the economy benefits long term.
    Now if you turn your fire on the real problem, the growing army of feckless lazy who refuse to work, then we would all vote for reducing their safety net, wouldn't we? Paul highlighted how this underclass are being marginalised in recent weeks. There is no pain free solution - Britain has welcomed immigrants since before the Romans and generally benefited in the long term. The English language is a living testimony to our ability to adapt to external influence. I'd rather the odd French word than the similitic braying todays youngsters use. Or is your point directed at (ahem) not all immigrants?

  • Comment number 13.

    Paul,

    Surely all we are going to see over the next few weeks is the very standard pre-election rhetoric followed by the post election reality. Which ever party takes the reigns we have an enormous eye watering national debt to pay. That means cuts or hikes or both. Whether it is on VAT, NI or a cut in public services the debt must be brought under control.

    The politicians will suggest a great deal and commit to very little, i'm not psychic, but I may be a cynic and this is how I think things will pan out!
    Regards
    Ian
    [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

  • Comment number 14.

    Tonyparksrun#12:


    I live in the most full-on migrant area in the UK and 'the economy' here is a black no-tax economy combined with the 'business' of welfare and a lot of criminal activity. Not quite your idyll.

    And I am also aware of people all around the country who are out of work because of migrant labour too.

    NB these are NOT contradictory. In neither case am I talking about 'all migrants'

    Many of the people you call 'lazy' will reasonably not work for the level of wages that migrant labour has pushed it down to.

    And what is wrong with encouraging UK people to have children? More family friendly labour policies as in Scandinavia, would be constructive.

    The UK economy is to serve the people of this country, not the other way round. Dont forget that 'economy' is embedded - in society. Not stand alone and not overriding.


  • Comment number 15.

    The Frozen Kingdom
    1859 its all about big ben realy but I forgot the bleeding title it’s cool for cats so we can send signal’s with our thoughts it’s mind over matter only the no nose RFID mind Tobruk Magna Carta its like going back in time minister for war air i was in a restaurant the other knight at the round table by the window with a bird on lock as we took and held the knock the third way in the end it help me unlock people ask me hows that through your copy ….. My reply was your bang on the money on things you under stand …he said what happened next … My reply was I forgot the the bleeding title as it unfolds as the crown is suspended from birth it give them more land of scope of cope as the glory goes back to the king.
    [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

  • Comment number 16.

    #14 Staying cool "Many of the people you call 'lazy' will reasonably not work for the level of wages that migrant labour has pushed it down to."
    This is what Paul explored in his recent pieces on Newsnight and Evan Davies on his programme about migrant workers. You cannot generalise from a single programme, but the examples put forward where jobs were on offer for the same rates as migrant workers in many cases showed they were workshy and lazy (credit here to the ones that stuck at it at the potato packers and the curry house). We live in an open globalised economy. Unless the unskilled are willing to adjust their expectations, then the country will disintegrate. On the one hand a diminishing band of earners (including immigrants), supporting on the other hand a growing band of economically inactive NEETS, pensioners etc.
    Something has to give, most likely to be welfare safety net. Personal experience shows what the benefit trap can do. I have distant cousin - unable to find a full time paid unskilled job that will sustain a family of 3 kids therefore forced onto benefits. At the margin, the welfare safety net is too generous, for too long. The problem is not immigrants in themselves, the problem is that we have a part of the population that are almost unemployable even if the unskilled jobs were there. They have little incentive to try to get skills and the attitude to become employable or to gain realistic expectations, with the safety net as currently structured. Frank Field, a voice in the wilderness, would express this all better than me.

  • Comment number 17.

    "The UK economy is to serve the people of this country, not the other way round. Dont forget that 'economy' is embedded - in society. Not stand alone and not overriding."
    I do admire idealism, really I do. Current economic reality is rather different. Until we can pump wealth out of the ground again or harness the tides & our glorious weather, the people of this great country will have to serve the economy until the debts/deficit are repaid. We don't have a choice, which is why our politicians are silent on the real issues.

  • Comment number 18.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

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