The general theory of England management: Part One
Association Football, as all social psychologists know, plays two key roles in British society.
First, it allows men to use emotional language to each other and to go so far as touching each other in public.
Second it allows business consultants to utilise football as an illustrative metaphor for the wider problems of business management. In this second regard, Idle Scrawl will not disappoint.
Following the blog that rocked the England dressing room in 2006, I will be regularly writing on the issue of football management strategy, tactics, personnel management etc during this World Cup, as a welcome break from fiscal catastrophe.
Here's the basic theme. With the rise of technology, and the never-ending stream of megabucks into football, the game at club level is at an unprecedented level of managerial organisation.
There are "labs" to look after the players' minds and bodies; systematic coaching of functions - that is defence, offence, goalkeeping, set-pieces - approaching NFL levels of sophistication; there is systematic intelligence using videos and computer generated match analysis; and there are internationally standardised coaching processes.
And my hunch is in this World Cup, the best coached and organised team will win. So what are the coaching challenges?
The first problem for World Cup managers is they are confined to what the national gene pool has thrown up: they can't just build a system and buy in players to fill it. Cappello is a famous tweaker of teams and systems, once commenting "every time you make wine the grapes are different"; so he's used to the challenge.
Next big question: what formation naturally fits the skills available? This may not be the right formation to take on the playing styles of your opponents and leads, in all World Cup campaigns by England - and most memorably in the movie "Mike Bassett, England Manager" - to constant tinkering with the formation.
With all previous England campaigns the problem has been their inability to make anything other than 4-4-2 really work, because most English players play in the English premiership where, though 4-4-2 is not ubiquitous, it is the "culture".
The third challenge is posed by the playing environment. Most World Cups are played in hot weather, disrupting the fast playing style of teams like England, while other northern hemisphere styles, such as Italy and Germany, seemed to adapt better to the climate.
This time it will be different: it is winter in South Africa and there is also altitude. The challenge will be to see if the north-hemisphere clubs can use the "shock" of being able to play at consistent speed to wrong-foot the hot country teams.
Now the specifics. England's huge problem has been failure to create a confident, coherent, ball-distributing midfield. This was amplified in previous tournaments by the clear psychological "fear of failure" syndrome, where players were playing with an eye to what they would write in their celebrity newspaper column after getting knocked out.
Its second problem has been lack of confidence in defence: this is not just an England level issue, but an issue for English teams faced with any kind of three-man attack system that can deliver short, darting runs into the box or clever over-the-top passes that beat the offside trap: see Manchester United versus Barca in the 2009 Champions' League final
Many soccer pundits have urged Cappello to abandon 4-4-2 in favour of 4-4-1-1, in which the midfield 4 are joined by a fifth player whose job it is to play in front of them. This has two advantages: it avoids the midfield 4 having to constantly use all their energy pressuring the ball: the classic 4-4-2 England tactic is to have the wing players in midfield surge forward and then cross, or nip inside. But it leaves the two central midfielders as essentially defenders - whereas England's two central midfielders are both natural attackers: Lampard and Gerrard.
Against Japan in Graz, Cappello briefly tried out 4-4-1-1, with Joe Cole behind Rooney. Suddenly England were buzzing. Then he changed the formation back to 4-4-2. Since the USA are the key threat in England's group, and since England really do need to win that group to avoid meeting somebody like Germany in the first round of playoffs, Cappello's tactical decision on how to start versus the USA will be crucial.
I think football coaching has developed so far, so fast, that the winners of the World Cup are not necessarily going to be the most skilled or even the ones who can play like Brazil or Barca. They are going to be the most drilled team; the team that can make tactical switches - of formation, or priority, or marking systems - in a very co-ordinated and intelligent way; or adapt one core formation to a variety of challenges.
In addition, they are going to be the team where morale and temper can remain under control; or suppressed by an over-riding nationalism that holds things together. For all these reasons my "dark horse" tips - on the eve of the tournament - are the USA and Serbia.
Comment number 1.
At 10th Jun 2010, UltraTron wrote:Paul, have you seen Brazil recently? Or did you mean Alan Brazil? Agree with your main point though. Just look at what Inter did in the Champions League, beating far more eye-pleasing sides with hard pressing, organisation, and an us-against the world attitude. It's the kind of thing that has always served the Italians well, although they used to have at least one or two players with the skills to unlock the door. Greece winning the Euros showed the way it was going to go. A win for Argentina would turn all this upside down though. Doubt Diego has talked to a nutritionist or sports pyschologist in his life, unless he met then in rehab.
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Comment number 2.
At 10th Jun 2010, Jericoa wrote:I was with you until the dark horse tips bit!
Serbia and USA!!
Better stick with economics Paul.
There are unlikely to be any dark horses this year for the reasons you cite I think. The closest you will get to a dark horse will be South Africa, they are not even expected to get out of their group, yet their recent form is good and usually the home team plays beyond expectation.
As usual the bookies follow entrenched public perception in developing odds in such events. South Africas recent good form and home advantage has not been taken fully into account based on entrenched perceptions so probably some value to be had there as well as Peter Crouch getting the golden boot (or in his case it should be a golden head) at 40 to 1.
Most top scorers are determined during the group stages not later stages, England are in a weak group and Peter Crouch is 7ft tall scores regularly but is inexplicability un-fancied by the betting public usually simply because he does not look like a striker, is a bit gangley and does very uncool robot dances in celebration.
40 to 1 each way (top 4 finish) is exceptional value not even hedge fund managers could dream of.
Gambling...erm I mean investing in sports markets is much more fun than all this dry financial and stock market stuff.
But remember, unlike bankers, only bet (erm i mean invest) with money that belongs to you and only bet what you can afford to lose and wont ruin your evening if you are wrong.
If only investment bankers were as responsible as most punters in betting shops perhaps non of this financial mess would have happened.
Now there is a thought.....
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Comment number 3.
At 10th Jun 2010, GorlagonUK wrote:Best drilled?! You make it sound like the Stepford World Cup. Don't we have enough Stepford politicians to be going on with?! I want blood and guts!
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Comment number 4.
At 10th Jun 2010, guy evans wrote:Any possibility that we might see you and JP (plus even MC, MU, and GE) illustrate the FIRST socio-psychological function of football (para 2) live on telly?
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Comment number 5.
At 10th Jun 2010, supersnapshot wrote:Hmmmmn, nice attempt to circumscribe the beautiful game, however like all "general theories" I suspect that there is always what WASPS would term the unknown unknown lurking in the hinterland. Alternatively the Latins call this "the hand of God".
Whatever, I enjoy watching the Africans play, so viva the "Schwartzkomando" and enjoy the spectacle !
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Comment number 6.
At 10th Jun 2010, mafftucks wrote:A good metaphor, but i think your view is based on the same cautious realism that forms the biscuit-base of your natural disappointment with the frothy potential of the current libertarian left.
OK, to be serious. Football has two aspects, defence and attack, and the World Cup is the superb showcase for the flexing tension between them. Its history can be seen as a series of regular bookmarks in the development of the modern game, which is constantly changing. Scottish defence superceded by winged attack superceded by bolt and braces defence superceded by exclamation attack (as in PELE! and JAIRZINHO!) superceded by the brilliant orange of Total Balance.
The modern game (from about '92 i reckon) could be described as technical balance. The business metaphor can be stretched further: everything is results-based and 'grade of service' is the post-Fordist, post-emotional king of 'performance assessment' - miles run, minutes played, passes completed, shots, shots on target. 'Big Sam' sits in his datazone and directs, producing the win,draw,lose then winning formula for what has become a bland product, built by a stressed out workplace to generate the sufficient numbers.
History does not End, however. Football is not a machine, any more than business is a machine. A new bookmark will be placed, and maybe this time it will be time for an emotional, fiery, attacking side that builds up relentless momentum until defensive systems buckle. And maybe that defining team will be an attacking England, who know they can't defend against the best team so they may as well start slinging and turn it into a shoot-out. Or maybe it will be Marado and the Argentinians. Who knows?
Thats the beauty, no one ever sees big change coming, you just know that eventually it always comes. Think Big Paul! :-)
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Comment number 7.
At 10th Jun 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:is football just masturbation for the masses?
despite all the [not so many] crappy [made in china] england flags adorning french made motorcars....i have never known the nation so underwhelmed by the world cup.
i actually believe no one could give a fig if...
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Comment number 8.
At 10th Jun 2010, watriler wrote:Is the MPC large enough to form their own football team? The game might ensure they are more productively utilised.
Government economic policy seems to headed towards own goals.
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Comment number 9.
At 11th Jun 2010, GiuseppeH wrote:You're right Paul, but most pundits seem to think Brazil are now the type of side you think of.
I think another application of science to football is the idea of networks. The best network is one where each node (player) has as many options as possible in terms of other nodes (players) to link to (pass to). The old 'pass and move' - for that think Barcelona, think Spain.
The network has a greater number of possibilities for creation, and will therefore surprise the opposition and makes fools of them.
Hard to see anyone beating the Spaniards.
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Comment number 10.
At 11th Jun 2010, Jericoa wrote:Paul,
I dont think your assessment of success in football takes account of the human factor associated with the Brazil teams sucess. They are by far the most sucessful nation in the history of the world cup.
Personaly I think a little known fact may greatly contribute to this sucess on a deeply psychological level.....
A great deal of the Brazillian players names on shirts are 'nick names' not real names. They are the only team to do this.
For example 'Hulk' (forward) is not a bizarre brazillian name it is his nick name because ..well he looks like the Hulk not to put too finer point on it.
It is also very important to understand that 'Hulk' is not so far up himself as to not be too proud to have 'Hulk' as his representation of his self to the world (see what I mean in terms of the psychological dynamic).
It does not stop there.
Another example is the manager 'Dunga' is actually the name they have for 'Dopey' in snow white and the seven dwaves in brazil. That is his name yet he still comands respect from all his players... would anyone in the England squad refer to Fabio Capello in similar terms?
In the past 'careca' (Baldie in english) was a good player and yes he lost all his hair very early in life.
Fantastic isnt it!!!!
Any brazil name on the shirt with 'Ze' in front basically means 'big' so 'ZE' Roberto is 'big robert', conversely if they have 'inho' on the end it means small so 'Ronaldinho' is 'little Ronaldo'.
KaKa - I think is the brazillian equivalent of laughter i.e. we have HA HA HA Ha , they have ka ka ka ka ka ka ...
Delightful!!!
Pele is also a nickname (dont know what that means) but amusingly the legendary player 'socrates' is not!!!
So when you watch Brazil play and think about why the best teams are the best teams you need to consider this. They do not take themselves too seriously.
So when you watch brazil play in the world cup add to your enjoyment of the spectacle by realising 'dopey' is directing 'laughter' and 'little robert' on the pitch while ' the 'hulk' causes chaos up front and 'Cesar' holds the fort in Goal... to be fair I think Cesar is his real name in his case actually.
Who said the world cup does not matter.. as one greek bloke once said '' the superflous...a very necesarry thing''.
Got to be better than waiting for the 'office of budget responsibility' statement due on Monday. I think this country could learn athing or two from Brazil.
Enjoy the world cup everyone. I will be.
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Comment number 11.
At 11th Jun 2010, shireblogger wrote:Gene pool and paygrade takes care of technical excellence,stamina and tactical acumen. Now we come on to : inspiration,creativity,leadership,courage,determination,loyalty,team work......
Lets hope for no : over expectation,narcissism,triangular passing backwards,nervy defence eyeing one another,over cautious midfield ,slow start through group,home press criticism,bunker mentality and wilt in knock-out phase.
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Comment number 12.
At 12th Jun 2010, stayingcool wrote:There was a moment when football clubs, albeit usually financially failing ones, were becoming co-ops of fans, either to save the clubs financially, or as protests against big outside takeovers.
Although I'd like to see people action about something a bit more important than football clubs - perhaps it was a good sign of a step towards empowerment and engagement.
Today football clubs, tomorrow banks.
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Comment number 13.
At 13th Jun 2010, Jericoa wrote:If you think the 'own goal' by Rob green last night was bad, wait until we get the ominously named ' office of budget responsibility' report tomorrow.
Double 'ouch'
My 8 year old daughter plays in goal for her primary school and I do not exagerate when I say I would have expected her to save that one.
Never seen anything like it in the top flight.
Expect similar rhetoric on a financial footing tomorrow.
I noticed an aparent 'minor' story this morning about Iran sending a flotilla of humanitarian aid to gaza under military escort.
Is it just me?
Looks like quite a nasty potential flash point this gaza thing, israel has miscalculated badly I think, the right thing to do would be to drop the blockade, which was dubious in the first place, on the condition that there is no increased rocket attack activity (there should be non but I am a pragmatist).
What is more likely to happen is Israel will refuse to back down and will therefore have its resolve tested again and again by flotilla after flotilla od aid, every time they repel one they will look more and more like the opressor not the opressed.
The tide of global sentiment and geopolitical dynamic could be on the turn against Israel unless someone gets a hold of it and manages it. I would not like to even think about what may happen if they get backed further and further into a corner, which is what it looks like at the moment.
I am sure the bilderbergers have got it all worked out though, if they ever thought us worthy enough to share in their 'wisdom'.
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