Oil -- who needs it?
We do, obviously. Or we think we do. Oil makes the world go around. It heats our homes, runs our cars, powers our societies, finances economic development -- and triggers international wars. But the world's oil supplies are running out -- fast. Some think the global supply of oil has already "peaked"; we are already using up the second half of the planet's supply. With a fast-growing global population, how much time do we have before the deman for oil vastly outstrips supply? Some analysts think we will face resource wars in our own lifetime, and a global economic depression provoked by our dependence on oil. The result, according to A Crude Awakening, , could be a petrochemical apocalypse. Hydrocarbon Man is doomed. I chaired a post-screening discussion on life beyond at the Queen's Film Theatre this week. On the panel were David Blevings from the , John Woods from , and Fiona Smyth from . The audience were terrific and focused the panel's discussion on the key issues for our world and this society. We recorded the discussion for radio, and you can hear it tomorrow morning, right after the 9.00am news, on Ö÷²¥´óÐã Radio Ulster. We'll also podcast the debate on the Everyday Ethics free download this week.
Comments
Thankfully we're at a stage where other technologies are accomplishing the kinds of things we've been doing with oil in alternative ways. The market will dictate all of this by itself: it's 'Economics 101'. A commodity whose demand outstrips supply will get more expensive, thus making its alternatives more popular as a simple function of the market. Ultimately the transition to the post-oil consuming society is already under way.
While the truth of this is far from clear, the US has enough known coal reserves to meet its energy needs for the next 200 years. A nation which can split the atom, send men safely to the moon and bring them back, and decode the structure of human DNA will find a way to turn the carbon in coal into forms of fuel such as gasoline which will keep the fires lit for a long time to come. I for one am not worried. The US also has known reserves it hasn't even begun to tap such as in Alaska and I think offshore on the continental shelf in many areas. Besides, doesn't the US control Iraq and have close ties to Saudi Arabia's ruling family? At least that's what everyone who hates America says. Oh how I hope they are right :-)
I can understand why Europe is worried. China is taking all its suppliers in the third world away from it while Russia is gaining control over the rest. Well, there's always Venezuela...if the EU doesn't get as nasty with Hugo Chavez as it did with Fidel Castro over human rights abuses. Europeans should think of their future hydrocarbon deficiencies as a way to enforce the 20%, 30%, 40% or more cutback they demand the rest of the world...or at least the US impose on itself. Nobody writing fiction could get away with such an ironic twist of fate. Now how much of a cut would Europe have to make to average 20% overall if the US made no cuts of its own?
its not just energy supply we need to be concerned about with the end of oil. There is also pharmaceuticals, food production and the majority of consumer goods that are reliant on oil.
Even if the oil / coal is in the ground should we use it? Regardless of wether you believe in the effects of climate change or not, is it worth wrecking some of the most beautiful parts of the planet just to squeeze out the last few drops of oil and coal.
The market may dictate the way this goes but that doesn't mean the transition is going to be easy, or that there will be no cost to society or the planet.
I love to see the "technology will surely get us out of this" argument coming from the libertarian right. It's the really the policy equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and humming.
Do we have the time to develop alternative sources of energy? Many "peakists" don't think so. Maybe it won't be the meltdown of modern civilisation that some predict but I for one am not so sure we can transition to a post-oil economy without significant economic pain and a major worldwide economic depression.