Ö÷²¥´óÐã

It could be a UFO in disguise? Seriously though, fantastic photo.

Amazing stuff, heading out of South Milford this morning the sky was amazing, just wish I could remember the Camera!

TallBloke and OldGifford interviewed by Ö÷²¥´óÐã
/iplayer/episode/b018j2wn/Look_East_East_20_12_2011/

Also

@3

I didn't realise you were that Old Gifford ;)

BTW, anybody else notice how silent Richard Black has been on Tallbloke?

Some good views of the clouds over Bradford too...

[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

oh, and nice clouds - look like roasting dishes from this view

hmmmm, who's in Tallblokes bad books and looks set for a roasting next year (or should that be which 2 people?

;)))

I took some photos this afternoon over the Aire Valley from home, the display was incredible. I then had their company all the way as I drove into Halifax and back. I don't think I have ever seen such beautiful Altocumulus lenticularis before...what a treat!

Amended URL for additional pics -

Here are some aliens leaving from near my house in North East England last year:



They must have known it was going to be a hard winter.

How big are these things?
The nearest hills to me are the Cheviots and they're more than twenty miles away.

#3. - oldgifford wrote:
"TallBloke and OldGifford interviewed by Ö÷²¥´óÐã"
Jeez, under suspicion for just making a legitimate Freedom of Information request!!
Are all climate change sceptics under suspicion now?

These were stunning clouds. Unfortunately in the East Riding, they were less spectacular, though still a lovely cloudscape.

The most extraordinary clouds I ever remember locally were the nacreous clouds of February 1996. The whole western sky was filled with luminous iridescent sheets and lenses of ice cloud which glowed well after sunset.

But clouds in general are things of great beauty. Nature may be in ruins down on the ground, but up in the sky it is still possible to see the world as it was meant to be.

#3&#10
Yes, heartrending - clearly candidates for martyrdom.

Thanks Paul

Love the pictures.

Merry Christmas and same to everyone who uses this blog.

It just shows how frightened the alarmists are when the police attack at midnight. This information is technically in the public domain since we paid for it to be gathered. The data has no National Security aspect since the same data is held by two American organizations. The data may be altered, falsified and generally messed about but it is still ours. It is the raw data that is required to show the fiddling and a little more than an FOIA request will be required to get that especially since most of it has been destroyed according to the new release of emails.

This whole mess leaves a nasty taste and is a bitter indictment of the controlling society that this government wishes us to live.

Paul, being as Peter is "friendly" with Carol Vordeman shall we soon see him on Loose Women?

My estimates for the final 2011 anomalies are as follows:

HadCRUT3 = 0.340c (12)
UAH = 0.153c = 0.412c (9)
RSS = 0.141c = 0.290c (12)
NCDC/NOAA = 0.515c = 0.380c (11)
NASA/GISS = 0.523c = 0.414c (9)

In all cases, these assume that the December 2011 anomaly will be the same as that for November.
The first figure is relative to the series base period and the second adjusted to HadCRUT3 1961-90, with the ranking in brackets.
The HadCRUT3 anomaly is based on a simple average of the monthly anomalies, i.e. equivalent to the CRU annual figure, not the MO figure, since I cannot replicate the MO version. From past experience, the MO figure could be higher or lower by +/- 0.03c.
The UAH anomaly is based on the UAH data file monthly figures, i.e. to 2 decimal places, not the ones to 3 decimals shown on Roy Spencer's website.

@14 John_Marshall.

"It just shows how frightened the alarmists are when the police attack at midnight."

By attack at midnight do you mean knock on the door at 7pm?

QuaesoVeritas wrote:

"Jeez, under suspicion for just making a legitimate Freedom of Information request!!
Are all climate change sceptics under suspicion now?"

Probably no more than the scientists who had personal correspondence stolen and misrepresented by conspiracy theorists.

John Marshall wrote:

"It just shows how frightened the alarmists are when the police attack at midnight."

So John, do you really believe whoever falls into your definition of 'alarmists' tell the Police what time to carry out operations and investigations? What a scary paranoid world you inhabit.

That photo is amazing. Fight 'blue sky thinking' all the way (fellow cloudspotters!).

If it weren't for clouds we would hardly notice the sky. Wouldn't it be boring to live in a cloud-free world?

Did Piers win with any of his bets on a white Christmas?

20. john_cogger wrote:

"Did Piers win with any of his bets on a white Christmas?"

Not unless he has an exceptionally lenient bookie, John.

His whole winter forecast was a disaster. He claimed that winter in Britain, West Europe and Spain would be dominated by Arctic or north-easterly flows which would result in *exceptionally* cold conditions from 28th November for four weeks. These conditions would be accompanied by *huge* snowfalls, especially on 2-3rd December; then again on 14 -15th December.

None of this materialised in any way, shape or form. In fact CET for December 2011 is currently about 0.5C above the 1971-2000 average. There was no snow at all in Britain in early December. The snow that fell in mid-December came from westerly fronts and was unexceptional.

None of this will blunt the enthusiasm of the disciples though. You're only as good as your last 'hit' in the long range weather game. (Misses are ignored by the faithful.)

For everyone else, apparently astrology isn't all it's cracked up to be (take note Paul Hudson).

Further to the above,

Northern Ireland, where I live, has just had its warmest Christmas Day on record. Piers and others said we'd be experiencing exceptional cold.

This is honest - I've actually went outside to check this at 1:40 AM - my garden thermometer shows 11.5 C, which is above corresponding readings in August.

(I was replenishing my faithful glass of Bushmills anyway, in case you're wondering. It's Christmas!)

#21. - newdwr54 wrote:
"His whole winter forecast was a disaster. He claimed that winter in Britain, West Europe and Spain would be dominated by Arctic or north-easterly flows which would result in *exceptionally* cold conditions from 28th November for four weeks. These conditions would be accompanied by *huge* snowfalls, especially on 2-3rd December; then again on 14 -15th December."

I quite agree that on the face of it, Piers Corbyn couldn't have got his forecast more wrong. It will be interesting to see what his explanation is, if any. I must admit, I haven't paid too much attention to him since I looked into his methods a couple of years ago and was somewhat sceptical about them. However, I don't think that by association, this proves that all "global warming" sceptics are wrong.
I don't quite understand your comment about astrology and Paul Hudson.
While there is some similarity in terms of the lack of transparency in Corbyn's methods, in reality they have nothing to do with Astrology, since the latter offers no mechanism for it's predictions.
I do find it annoying that while there has been a lot of attention given to the fact that it has been unusually warm in the UK, due to weather patterns, there has been and probably will be, no mention of the fact that globally it has been one of the coolest years in the last decade. If it had been one of the warmest years globally, I am sure that it would have been all over the news.

@23 QuaesoVeritas

Piers changed his forecast at the start of the month due to an unexpected filament on the Sun. His new forecast fell more inline with the 'normal' models. Though he still said it would be a white Christmas in a number of places.

#24. - john_cogger wrote:
"Piers changed his forecast at the start of the month due to an unexpected filament on the Sun. His new forecast fell more inline with the 'normal' models. Though he still said it would be a white Christmas in a number of places."
Is there a link to the explanation of how that "unexpected filament" has reversed his original forecast, or is that only available to subscribers?
Does the fact that such an unexpected event can change the forecast so radically not point to the futility of such long-range forecasts?

@25 QuaesoVeritas



Though its not the clearest what is a update and what is general rambling (he needs a new webdesigner...).

As they say it isn't over until the fat lady sings and there is still plenty of weather left. I can remember one year Easter being very late and going down to Cornwall for a holiday with my family in the 1980's and we were sun bathing on the beach. My Grandparents came down later and met us and told us it was snowing back in Sheffield. By the time we got back up to Sheffield, we hit thick snow at Derby and through Bodmin moor.

#26. - john_cogger wrote:
"Though its not the clearest what is a update and what is general rambling (he needs a new webdesigner...)."

Thanks for that.
I must admit that I have always found Corbyn's public articles confusing, not least because of the layout.
It's difficult to tell without the detail, but my impression is that he is trying to use the filament as an excuse without explicitly saying so.
Anyway as far as I can tell, from archived "spaceweather" pages, it didn't really amount to much anyway, with most of any associated CME didn't come in the Earth's direction.

@27 Sheffield_city

No one is suggesting Winter is over, with 2 months of the meteorological winter to go I'm sure it will snow again...somewhere.

Not sure we will get your -20's anytime soon.

looks to me like Boxing Day in CET was the warmest on record. Judging from the met office 5 day forecast 2011 will very likely turn out to be the 2nd warmest year

#30. - quake wrote:
"looks to me like Boxing Day in CET was the warmest on record. Judging from the met office 5 day forecast 2011 will very likely turn out to be the 2nd warmest year"
However, as we all know, the temperature in the UK, whether warm or cold, tells us very little about global temperatures.
This will probably not stop the UKMO claiming it does, since if nothing else, that will distract attention from the fact that globally it has been one of the coolest years for some time.

23. QuaesoVeritas wrote:

"I don't think that by association, this proves that all "global warming" sceptics are wrong."

Nor do I QV. Every claim should be judged on its merits.

"I don't quite understand your comment about astrology and Paul Hudson."

Just that it strikes me that Paul is sometimes slightly taken by the views of the likes of Piers Corbyn. That said, he has also been critical of him at times. So fair enough. Apologies to Paul if they are due. I don't see a great deal of difference between the forecasts of Piers Corbyn and the forecasts of Mystic Meg. Both seem to be equally well based in science.

"I do find it annoying that while there has been a lot of attention given to the fact that it has been unusually warm in the UK, due to weather patterns, there has been and probably will be, no mention of the fact that globally it has been one of the coolest years in the last decade."

That's true, but it has also been the only year in the last decade, as far as I know, that has had a double-dip La Nina.

"If it had been one of the warmest years globally, I am sure that it would have been all over the news."

It's pretty much certain to be one of the top few warmest years in both the UK and CET records. I haven't heard a great deal about that in the news either.

31. QuaesoVeritas wrote:

"...as we all know, the temperature in the UK, whether warm or cold, tells us very little about global temperatures."

Yes QV, *we* all know that; but the media, the Daily Mail and Express in particular, seem to have selective amnesia about these things. Have we not been reading forebodings of catastrophic snowfalls across the UK from October onward in both these papers?

Currently they are both commenting on how unusually mild the current conditions are; as if they hadn't been publishing warnings of an icy apocalypse since autumn. The readership of these papers must have the attention spans of pigeons.

In Nov-Dec 2010 the UK and parts of North America had exceptionally cold weather, even though other parts of the world, including the high Arctic, were experiencing exceptionally mild weather over the same period. Newspapers weren't commenting on the areas with exceptionally mild weather conditions. They were commenting on what sells newspapers (the world outside our windows).

So as far as media coverage is concerned, it's a question, for all of us, of taking the rough with the smooth.

#32. - newdwr54 wrote:
"I don't see a great deal of difference between the forecasts of Piers Corbyn and the forecasts of Mystic Meg. Both seem to be equally well based in science."

I have made some study of the mathematics of Astrology and even though I am sceptical of Corbyn's forecasts, they do at least have some scientific basis, even if it is misplaced, whereas Astrology has absolutely none. I am not even sure if Mystic Meg was even a "genuine" Astrologer, and probably made it all up.

"It's pretty much certain to be one of the top few warmest years in both the UK and CET records. I haven't heard a great deal about that in the news either."

Don't worry, you will.

The best way to deal with Corbyn and the like is just to ignore their ramblings until they properly involve themselves with scientific peers. Until that time comes, it is more reasonable to assume that they work by smoke and mirrors and reliance on the general gullibility of the public and their love of "exciting" weather predictions.

QV You are spot on with your logic that an "unexpected" solar flare (or whatever) patently obviates the purpose and basis of long range forecasting! Corbyn has come up with a contradiction of his own terms. "Hoist by his own petard" is, I believe, the appropriate expression.

However, you are surely biased to the possibility that this years mild December will have everyone chatting about "global warming" when last December's freeze had exactly the opposite effect. Fair dooth!

As for our email "Gang of Two" above: they are so obviously playing the poor persecuted, downtrodden and deliberately supressed sceptics card - it is almost laughable. If ONLY science would just listen to the ideas that the poor dears are trying to get out in to the world - this whole AGW thing would just collapse and everyone would be saved an awful lot of money! How can these climatologists be so stupid? But what can one do against a massive global conspiracy of smugly funded scientists, the Ö÷²¥´óÐã, politics, IPCC and now even the POLICE! If only the police had asked nicely a few days before, all the evidence could have been handed over in Xmas wrapping paper and a nice pretty bow.

I have a suspicion that this year may have been one of the windiest for some time in the UK, but this is difficult to test, because of the surprising (to me) lack of data on wind speeds from the UKMO.
The only figures I can find are averages for the periods 1971-2000 and 1961-1990, for some stations on the UKMO website here:

The averages fpr 1981-2010 will be available in spring 2012.
I found it strange that there were no more detailed wind speed statistics available, equivalent to those for temperature and rainfall. According to the UKMO, there are figures, but they are not available for general use, and provision is a chargeable service. I can only assume that the figures are of some commercial value, because of the growth of the wind generation industry.
Based on the figures which are available, it appears that average wind speeds declined slightly between 1961-1970 and 1991-2000, which I think is not what one would have expected from "climate change" predictions, Unfortunately, even when the new averages are available, it will only be possible to compare 1971-1980 with 2001-2010.

much common sense Jkiller - agree with most of it.
I would however take a slightly different view to the police incident. Apparently not a suspect, Tallbloke could or perhaps should have received a phone call or similar asking for permission to view his computer systems. Having the police turn up mob-handed with a search warrant (or whatever it was) is just unnecessarily heavy handed.
I certainly wouldn't trace the blame for that, any further back than the officer who decided that this particular 'action' was required. They do seem to make a hash of things more often these days.
I'm also a little surprised that they needed to remove the computers in order to copy the hard drives. I'm no expert on these things, but I had the impression that this could be done in-situ with an external or portable HD which are readily available from PC world (no pun intended) at very little expense.

31. QuaesoVeritas wrote:

"...as we all know, the temperature in the UK, whether warm or cold, tells us very little about global temperatures."

What rubbish. Temperatures whether positive or negative in the UK, are down some what to what is happening in the rest of the world.

Sheffield_City,
Clearly you missed my subtle attempt at sarcasm.
Last year, when temperatures were low in the UK, we were being told by the "warmists" that it told us nothing about global temperatures.
Also, of course, global temperature anomalies are relatively low, while UK temperatures are relatively high.
Is there an emoticon for sarcasm?

#37. - lateintheday wrote:
"I'm also a little surprised that they needed to remove the computers in order to copy the hard drives. I'm no expert on these things, but I had the impression that this could be done in-situ with an external or portable HD which are readily available from PC world (no pun intended) at very little expense."
Wouldn't that take too long?

QuaesoVeritas. Sorry too subtle for me. I notice this year they are expecting a bad winter in Canada.

#37 why the hard drives were copied I know not. Blogs onto a website are not copied onto the hard drive of the blogger but onto the hard drive of the website. There would be evidence that a particular site was visited but not what was blogged.

And why again was this raid done if the science is settled and the skeptics are talking rubbish. If this was true the correct route for the government would be to ignore skeptics completely. They seem rattled to me.

#41. - Sheffield_city wrote:
"QuaesoVeritas. Sorry too subtle for me. I notice this year they are expecting a bad winter in Canada."
Next time I will try to remember to wink!

I have just come across some interesting data saying that we are going through a Solar storm that NASA warned us of a long time ago, that would excite the sun. it also talks of changes in the poles and more earth quakes and volcanoes. It may explain what is going off at the moment.

#44. - Sheffield_city wrote:
"I have just come across some interesting data saying that we are going through a Solar storm that NASA warned us of a long time ago, that would excite the sun. it also talks of changes in the poles and more earth quakes and volcanoes. It may explain what is going off at the moment."
Do you have a link to this?

QuaesoVeritas I actually found it in the daily mail by accident, then inserted "solar storms" into search engines. It appears that Nasa predicted it about 4 years ago, they have concerns that it will cause problems with satellites. There is loads of information out there and youtube video's on it. We are the peak of a solar maximum, which has been delayed, I know this is sucking eggs to some. I understand they come every 11 years and the last one was in 1999. I am sure it is a worse case scenario all the doom. But have we ever had so many volcanoes erupting and earth quakes. It is all down to plasma that the sun moves through and causes it to work harder.

@46 Sheffield_city

The sun does have an 11 year solar cycle, it's well known and documented. We are currently heading towards an 11 year peak, which is actually predicted to be lower than the last peak. It does have potential to cause problem with satellites and even power lines on earth. It all depends on if any flairs actually come our way.

However there is no 11 year earthquake cycle or volcano cycle, that can be linked the the 11 year solar cycle.

This was the link I originally came across. It is head lines type stuff, but when I put "solar storms" into the search engine, some of the results were interesting.. John_cogger I realise it is known fact that sun cycles are very 11 years, but wasn't the last one in 1999. Which means this cycle will be 12/13 years.

#48. - Sheffield_city wrote:
"This was the link I originally came across."
Thanks for that, I had missed it.
I love the way that journalists try to exaggerate the consequences of such events, using terms such as "slam into Earth". Also, mentioning that the fact that CMEs are 100,000,000c, without pointing out that they are so tenuous that such temperatures are meaningless. Some people may get unnecessarily alarmed at the prospect of a 100 million degree "solar storm" heading for the Earth.
I was monitoring the current solar maximum, which was late, but I haven't done so for a few months. The 11 year cycle is an average, which varies considerably, but some were predicting low temperatures based on the lateness and predicted size of the current max.
Personally, I don't believe that such things have any effect on earthquakes or seismic activity, and as John_cogger says, if there was any effect, it would be obvious. On the other hand, I am sure I saw someone, possibly a Government minister, saying recently that earthquakes were going to increase. Unfortunately I don't have a record of that.
I presume that this has had, or will have, some effect on Piers Corbyn's forecasts.

Quaesoveritas. I agree that news people try and sensationalise things. These solar storms have always happened. The problem is we now have satellites for communications and this could seriously effect their workings. Earth is travelling through space and many different things can effect us and cause temperature variations that we have no control over. It is a miracle that we are still spinning and somebody up there must have a plan for us or we would have long gone up in smoke.

you can see past 11 year solar cycles and the progress of the current cycle here: