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Newsweek Scotland: Tak Sa Mycket

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Derek Bateman Derek Bateman | 16:15 UK time, Friday, 11 November 2011

I'm beginning to worry about the independence referendum - Whenever That Is. There was - from the House of Commons Library - which had goggle-eyed constitution-watchers frothing at the mouth...(excuse me while I reach for the Kleenex).

Worried because there's going to be so much information washing around possibly years before anything actually happens, we might run out of things to say. (Note how I'm not interested in our country's future, but how to fill Newsweek every Saturday). As usual there was what you might call a bit of over-writing and over-reaction in the press - one billed it as a backlash against the separatists, rather giving away its agenda I suspect.

Nevertheless I took the trouble to read the actual report and, having researched enough on the subject lately to merit an honorary degree - are you reading this, Oxford University? I found it one of the most balanced and comprehensive of its type. I know there are many critics of Westminster out there but to be fair to the Commons Library researchers, they have earned a reputation for integrity over many years. Yet what struck me was how many caveats there are in everything that is written.

Every area is hedged around with What If? And several times there are references to the possibility of both the (theoretical) new Scotland and the remaining UK being successor states in continuing membership of the EU. That may sound unlikely and against the majority of evidence we have seen so far, but the researchers point out that if there is goodwill between Edinburgh and London and the break-up of the UK is portrayed as amicable and voluntary then it is difficult for any third party like the UN or EU to disagree.

Would London back Scotland's continued status? Well, why not if the Scots had already expressed that view. After all we are told there is a respect agenda and that one of the Union's great strengths is the mutual respect and strong bond between us. Surely a London government wouldn't want Scotland to fail? On the other hand...this is politics.

Anyway one newspaper led on Scotland's possible contribution to funds to shore up the Euro...IF Scotland joined the Euro...IF there is still a Euro... We decided to take up this point with one of our leading experts from Edinburgh University. Will Scotland be forced into the Euro? Only 17 out of 27 members are in.

I particularly like the Swedish excuse for not adopting the Euro which is supposed to be mandatory...unless like Britain and Denmark you negotiate an opt-out. Before going into the Euro you must first join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and joining the ERM is VOLUNTARY. So Sweden said we won't bother with the ERM, tak sa mycket (thanks very much).

We'll bring you the interesting piece about Italian society that went AWOL two weeks ago and we discuss launching a pre-emptive attack on Iran (No, not the Newsweek team - the US) and we're on Mars...nearly. Angus Macleod will guide us through the papers. I'm off to read yet another report saying that it is illegal to ask the Scots what they think about the future of their country!!? Have we all gone mad? Join me at 8 to find out.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    I presume you also read at the end of the report
    Take the aforementioned report with a large pinch of salt. Their presumptions are just that no better nor worse than my own

  • Comment number 2.

    Interesting discussion between Angus Young and George Kerevan. However, there was one point that they didn't cover - the uncertainty that the endless delay is causing. Speaking from my own experience, I need to make big decisions about my business and life in general and can't do it until I know what Scotland's future will be. Am I expected to just "calm down" (as George said) and hang on nervously for 4 years? There is also a worrying historical precedent. The Parti Quebecois came to power in 1976 in Quebac and waited until 1980 before calling their first referendum on Quebecker independence. These four years saw massive economic turmoil in Quebec province with many businesses simply choosing to relocate to Ontario. I worked in Montreal for a few years around the turn of the millennium (just after the second failed referendum attempt) and this experience has deeply affected my view of "neverenda" and the problems they cause.

  • Comment number 3.

    Where is this report published? I was interested to listen to the discussion this morning but cannot find the report on the Ö÷²¥´óÐã site.

  • Comment number 4.

    Found it. The report is here:

  • Comment number 5.

    How refreshing that the Sunday Herald is offering the Independence movement some much needed support. It only requires the Scottish Media to tell the truth rather than acting as propaganda machines for Westminster.

  • Comment number 6.

    Derek, maybe you should consider these facts:

    (taken from Stephen Noon's blog 10/11/11)


    There has been much discussion among politicians and the press in recent days, including at FMQs today, about whether or not an independent Scotland would be required to adopt the euro.

    As someone newly qualified in EU law, I thought I would take a look, not at the political arguments, but at the black letter law - what the Treaties actually say.

    So lets explore the 'worst case scenario' put forward by Labour and Tory politicians: Scotland as an accession state.

    This is the legal position on euro membership:

    The most recent accession treaty (for countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and Poland) contains the following provision:

    "Each of the new Member States shall participate in Economic and Monetary Union from the date of accession as a Member State with a derogation within the meaning of Article 122 of the EC Treaty"

    Article 122 of the EC Treaty has now been replaced by Articles 139 and 140 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). If you stop at this point, the argument seems won - all new members "shall participate" in the single currency. However, there is another step. We need, also, to look at what Articles 139 and 140 TFEU actually say.

    These articles apply to all Member States without a euro opt out, whether old or new, whether accession or not. Article 139 TFEU sets out that "Member States with a derogation" do not participate in the single currency or monetary union. Article 140 TFEU then makes clear that euro membership is not automatic. In order to join the euro, a Member State has to satisfy certain criteria, including currency convergence as part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II).

    So what are the rules for participation in ERM II? These are set out in the 16 June 1997 Resolution of the European Council establishing the Exchange Rate Mechanism and the 16th March 2006 agreement between the European Central Bank and the national central banks of the Member States outside the euro area. These make clear "participation in ERM II is voluntary for the non-euro area Member States".

    So, in summary, the Treaties make clear that a Member State can't join the euro without demonstrating currency convergence as part of ERM II "for at least two years" and because Scotland (or any other Member State, old or new) can choose whether or not to join ERM II, we can't be forced to join the euro. There is a point of decision - whether or not to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism - which is ours to take, and if we don't join ERM II, we won't be joining the euro.

    As a final thought, I started work for the SNP in the House of Commons and have huge respect for the House of Commons library and its highly effective staff. It is therefore very disappointing that they should put out a report on euro membership for an independent Scotland without referring to what the Treaties and other provisions of EU law actually say. I hope that mistake is now remedied.

  • Comment number 7.

    Derek, you come across as a very reasonable guy.

    Ö÷²¥´óÐã Scotland have stopped comments on their politics and business blogs. Yours next? Can you get someone to tell us why the Ö÷²¥´óÐã treats Scotland differently from the rest of the UK?

  • Comment number 8.

    amjhaj, if you don't mind me adding to your post:

    This is a list of Ö÷²¥´óÐã reporters who have pages like Brian Taylor's and Douglas Fraser's that all have comments enables on all of their reports, unlike Messrs Taylor and Fraser.

    N.Ireland:
    Mark Davenport: Political Editor

    Wales:
    Betsan Powys: Political Editor
    David Cornock: Parliamentary correspondent

    UK:
    Mark Easton: Ö÷²¥´óÐã Editor
    Robert Peston: Business Editor
    Stephanie Flanders: Economics Editor
    Nick Robinson: Political Editor
    Paul Mason: Economics Editor, Newsnight
    Mark Urban: Diplomatic/Defence Editor, Newsnight
    Torin Douglas: Media Correspondent (sometimes uses Twitter)
    Phil Coomes: Picture Editor
    Mark D'Arcy: Parliamentary Correspondent
    Martin Rosenbaum: Freedom of Information Specialist
    Fergus Walsh: Medical Correspondent
    Tom Fielden: Science Correspondent 'Today' programme
    Richard Black: Environment Correspondent
    Rory Cellan Jones: Technology Correspondent (sometimes Twitter)
    Will Gompertz: Arts editor (not all reports have comments enabled)

    England:
    Richard Moss:Political Editor North east and Cumbria
    Len Tingle: Political Editor Yorkshire
    Tim Iredale: Political Editor Yorkshire and Lincolnshire
    Patrick Burns: Political Editor Midlands
    John Hess: Political Editor East Midlands
    Martyn Oates: Political Editor South West
    Deborah McGurran: Political Editor East of England
    Peter Henley: Political Editor South of England
    Louise Stewart: Political Editor South East

    World
    Andrew Harding; Africa Correspondent
    Damian Grammaticas: Beijing Correspondent
    Soutik Biswas: Delhi Correspondent
    Gavin Hewitt: Europe Editor
    Nick Bryant: Australia Correspondent
    Maggie Shiels: USA Silicon Valley Reporter

    Why is Ö÷²¥´óÐã Scotland the only area of the entire Ö÷²¥´óÐã website where licence fee payers are not offered the opportunity to add their comments anymore on political or business issues ?

  • Comment number 9.

    They can take away our lives but they can never take away our freedom to comment. Oh wait, on the Ö÷²¥´óÐã they can and they will.

  • Comment number 10.

    #9 xyz - they did exactly the same thing on the run up to the Scottish Parliamentary elections . it didn't work for them then and it ain't going to work this time either.

    you can smell the fear wafting out of pathetic quay .

    and did shereen ever find the silent majority ?

  • Comment number 11.

    what we are seeing right now is the unionist party's playing catch up (again)
    someone in the SNP worked out when unionist support would be at it's lowest ,when the westminster coalition had really started with their real agenda really cutting spending ,cutting benefits ,cutting jobs and not replacing them ,ripping the public sector apart.
    the unionists have finally worked it out and don't fancy their chances at that time hence their new found demand that it happens now whilst they think they still have a chance.
    Sid

  • Comment number 12.

    Congratulations Derek! You are the sole survivor of an active Ö÷²¥´óÐã Scotland Blog site. How have you managed it and where is todays blog or have been cut off in your prime?

Ìý

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