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How about a TRUE and FACTUAL optimistic view on/of China.

What a complete load of tosh.

Ultimately, Chinas rise is just tempory. FACT, based upon the history of the existance of humanity.

Basically all this economic/financial feet licking is just solely about the creation of a NEW bubble, a NEW chapter in human FAILURE, such talk is below ANY real level of inteligence, its wishy washy pretentiousism, its FANTASY, its NOT based upon fact or reality or LOGIC.

Please show me just ONE singular piece of documented factual evidence that PROVES that China will be DIFFERENT to any other economic power in the history of human evolution, and will NOT collapse in some way in upon itself and or drag the rest of the world down with it, or try and take over much of the world via one means or another to enable it to maintain/sustain itself.

China's maintained rise and continued existance can ONLY and FACTUALLY be maintained and positively and factually measured with longevity if resources were infinite, it would be fine if access to constant growing demand for resources was also infinite. They are NOT!!!

China is ALREADY making MANY of the SAME mistakes which resulted in the wests catastrophic present economic and financial monetry position, especially its own property bubble.

China, is basically a runaway train, much bigger than anything in human history, when it crashes, it will be a disaster beyond comparison, the world fallout/ collateral damage will factually be the worst ever experienced due to massive massive increase in numbers to the worlds populations.

Does ANYONE really believe that China will be the FIRST nation in human existance, the FIRST economic and world power to be able to maintain such a position indefinately.

It discusts me to so often hear and see the words, " LEST WE FORGET", when so much of vital importance to our existance is not just forgotten, but just cast aside and papered over with this attrociously thin veneer of imoral acceptance self-righteousness and inanely imoral and deceitful pretentious and fraudulent deceptive respectability.

Size is FACTUALLY relevent to a fall.

China, is HUGE, its economy is HUGE and growing, its population is HUGE and growing, its NEEDS are HUGE and growing.

Put this in HONEST/TRUTHFUL/FACTUAL/LOGICAL context with the rest of the world which is also HUGE and has HUGE populations also constantly growing.

ANYONE of a singular functioning inteligent braincell will know that ALL this is UNSUSTAINABLE.

Its as if our species is daydreaming its way to oblivion, to self inflicted catastrophy, of which China is now a fundamental and endemic part of this journey.

China is basically part of the human relay team which is running towards its end. Many nations, empires etc have taken over the baton holding position and led from the front, at ever increasing pace.

Realistically, Europe could have saved £BILLIONS on trying to see the creation of the universe via the Hatdron Collider. Some are worried that it could create a black hole. LOL

What do you think China is, what do you think USA is, what do you think British Empire was. Basically they are black holes in which resources of the world and life of the world are sucked into via economic/financial gravitational forces.


Tell me, is being the front runner of unsustainability something to REALLY celebrate.

I am hoping, that due consequential factually measurable carnage will NOT be in my lifetime, but who knows, 30 to 40 years is a long time, if I live that long, for such to become an experienced reality.

Many Chinese people are doing ok, much much better than previously, but I fear that they will be among the worst to suffer in huge numbers just because they are in such a huge number hence everything is relative to size.

If China and the world has NOT suffered massive destructive catastrophy by year 2050 or 2100 then I personally think that such will just be down to luck and which I do not think is even actually a remote possibility due to so much factual and relative circumstance and endemic faults and problems with the world.

Celebrate.

While you can!!!!

Ever an optimist!!!

Re-post:

China has the ability now to corner the world market in key commodities. We have seen it happen with the Rare Earth minerals needed for the armaments industries, communications hardware, and for eco-incorporating alternative energy components.

This should be the wake-up call for the world's resource-poor nations like Britain.

It's not just the physical winning and transfer of these key commodities from (mostly) the developing and under-developed nations of the world. It is the circumscribing of these materials into the future by Chinese trade agreements.

Even though they may not be exploited until way into the future, they have been made unavailable to the western developed world - though they may be 'released' in negotiated amounts from Namibia, Angola , Brazil, etc, by the Chinese guardians of 'their' reserves.

This should be the wake-up call for the world's resource-poor nations like Britain.

China has created a new world for trade agreements - one-sided, self-serving, whatever.

What has conspicuously not happened is value for local economies.

When China is BUYING (minerals, metals, raw materials, foodstuffs, animal feed), China deals with the world's national leaders as it finds them - no comment given on local human rights, corruption, genocide, etc. Money finds its way into the pockets of the presidents, ministers, friends and family of the leaders, war-lords, etc. Money conspicuously does not find its way proportionately into local economies - quite the reverse - money is removed from local economies in order that the corrupt rich get richer.

When China is SELLING, China's multinational-partners-in-production take their profits, usually as private company shareholder dividends but, increasingly, as nationalised company joint-profits where local governments running national socialist economies have production agreements with China. In both these cases there is little cascading down through local economies - and no trade-related obligation on countries to make it so.

Can China be blamed for the failure of the flow of trading profits into local economies? ............

During the next (?)50 years, as China becomes a higher-wage country, production will cascade to cheaper countries with high-skilled work-forces. Africa and South America will remain continents of extreme exploitation irrespective of where production gravitates. anticipate Chinese management of most medium and large companies across the world; the Chinese already know how to do this well.

In the fullness of time such British production as is 'allowed' to exist will probably be wage-priced at Chinese 'home' levels minus trans-global transportation costs for the finished product. Products produced under Chinese licence around the world will be priced to take into account the real financial and political costs of strategically locating embedded local trade-management structures within all nations of the world. Local wage level will reflect these structural controls.

If Britain wishes to produce, it will be this wage-level. As Chinese benchmark wages may be high, UK manufacturing wages should allow for an adequate quality of life - but we may have to go through half a century of poverty-through-decline before we get there.

We have been for some years now in the biggest war the world has ever experienced.
I think most people have realised by now that the Chinese have been waging the war for world domination through the Arts of Sun Tzu - they have had 2,600 years to hone their skills:

1.Laying Plans/The Calculations explores the five fundamental factors (the Way, seasons, terrain, leadership, and management) and seven elements that define a successful outcome. By thinking, assessing and comparing these points you can calculate a victory, deviation from them will ensure failure. Remember that war is a very grave matter of state.

2.Waging War/The Challenge explains how to understand the economy of war and how success requires making the winning play, which in turn, requires limiting the cost of competition and conflict.

3.Attack by Stratagem/The Plan of Attack defines the source of strength as unity, not size, and the five ingredients that you need to succeed in any war. In order of importance: Attack, Strategy, Alliances, Army, lastly Cities.

4.Tactical Dispositions/Positioning explains the importance of defending existing positions until you can advance them and how you must recognize opportunities, not try to create them.

5.Energy/Directing explains the use of creativity and timing in building your momentum.

6.Weak Points & Strong/Illusion and Reality explains how your opportunities come from the openings in the environment caused by the relative weakness of your enemy in a given area.

7.Maneuvering/Engaging The Force explains the dangers of direct conflict and how to win those confrontations when they are forced upon you.

8.Variation in Tactics/The Nine Variations focuses on the need for flexibility in your responses. It explains how to respond to shifting circumstances successfully.

9.The Army on the March/Moving The Force describes the different situations in them.

10.The Attack by Fire/Fiery Attack explains the use of weapons generally and the use of the environment as a weapon specifically. It examines the five targets for attack, the five types of environmental attack, and the appropriate responses to such attack.

11.The Use of Spies/The Use of Intelligence focuses on the importance of developing good information sources, specifically the five types of sources and how to manage them.

These strategies (here adapted via Wiki.) have frequently been translated into tomes on business strategies based on (eg) the principle that
"...... one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful."

The focus has been on the economic growth of China. Many Western firms has sought the cheap labor in China, at the expense of jobs in their homelands. The growth of Eastern China has not been matched in Western China and the Chinese still have over 300 million people living in poverty. Chinese leadership is uncomfortable with power as seen with their constant misuse. The Chinese people will require mmore freedom to advance the the rampant corruption continues to drag real opportunity down for the Chinese people. The imbalance between Eastern and Western China continues to cause internal dissent. The Western view of greed has created wealth for the party leaders and their families but real opportunities for the average Chinese remains small. A growing middle class in China will be the vehicle of change as it has been in other evolving nations. China has been unwilling to make or find friends that are not outcaste in the international community. Insecurity of the Chinese leadership prevents real change. It will come over time as all things Chinese do. In Asia, history matters.

An opportunity-in-time has opened up that was not there before:

Globalization has created the opportunistic environment, and the 'global' financial crisis has created the window of opportunity.

China has reacted by:
(i) buying up debt in the US, thereby neutering aggressive counter-action.
(ii) the circumscribing of the world's primary resources - both essential to feed the production for the world's markets and a tactical weapon of deprivation against economic competitors.
(iii) re-opening demands for off-shore island chains, thereby making territorial claim to – especially- the South China Sea and the Sea of Japan submarine mineral reserves, explicitly warning off Japan and the USA, and making an unambiguous declaration to the world that China has 're-entered the Game' after a 200 year lay-off.
(iv) hydro-electric diversions from the Himalayan massif, winning flow from the Indian sub-continent into China.
(v) massively expanding the PRC armed forces with up to date weaponry and intercontinental nuclear capabilities.
(vi) [it is not yet timely to reanneal the two Chinas (PRC & RoC) into one, but the time will come. It will be done by trade-starvation, once all present and potential partners of the RoC are compromised].

China has historically been serially humiliated by the West and Japan, and invaded-with-genocides by the Japanese. These things are not forgotten or forgiven by this proud and ancient ‘nation’. And when opportunities come together ……….

World domination is primarily a thing that ‘just happens’ – all you have to do is to place the bricks on the global Weiqi board …. just …so.

And no, the baton will not, this time, pass to another 'nation' with the passage of time ... the Monopoly Board we call Earth will soon have all its hotels owned by Chinese and managed locally. Game over.

Geoff.

1. At 12:37pm on 25 Nov 2010, MrWonderfulReality wrote:
How about a TRUE and FACTUAL optimistic view on/of China.

What a complete load of tosh.

Ultimately, Chinas rise is just tempory. FACT, based upon the history of the existance of humanity.
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Well ultimately the world and universe are temporary aren't they?

The point is that China seems to be the comming power.

The fact it won't always be so is irrelevant, no one is suggesting the world stops when this occurs.

3. At 1:53pm on 25 Nov 2010, GeoffWard wrote:

China has created a new world for trade agreements - one-sided, self-serving, whatever.

What has conspicuously not happened is value for local economies.
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Wouldn't say that. Australia has done pretty well, the country is richer than ever before thanks to the Chinese.

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When China is BUYING (minerals, metals, raw materials, foodstuffs, animal feed), China deals with the world's national leaders as it finds them - no comment given on local human rights, corruption, genocide, etc. Money finds its way into the pockets of the presidents, ministers, friends and family of the leaders, war-lords, etc. Money conspicuously does not find its way proportionately into local economies - quite the reverse - money is removed from local economies in order that the corrupt rich get richer.
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yeah really. Please name me a trading country that does not do this? All countries generally trade with the powers that be.

Didn't the US recently trade billions of dollars of arms with Saudi? Is that going into the local economy?

And what is the "local economy" street traders?
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When China is SELLING, China's multinational-partners-in-production take their profits, usually as private company shareholder dividends but, increasingly, as nationalised company joint-profits where local governments running national socialist economies have production agreements with China. In both these cases there is little cascading down through local economies - and no trade-related obligation on countries to make it so.
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Incomprehensible national socialist economies? Cascading? China signs production agreements, hardly alone in doing this.

And what do you suggest they ignore local governments?
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During the next (?)50 years, as China becomes a higher-wage country, production will cascade to cheaper countries with high-skilled work-forces. Africa and South America will remain continents of extreme exploitation irrespective of where production gravitates. anticipate Chinese management of most medium and large companies across the world; the Chinese already know how to do this well."
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Really the Americans swedes germans etc are no slouches at this either.


Not sure why Brazil etc have been written off.
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In the fullness of time such British production as is 'allowed' to exist will probably be wage-priced at Chinese 'home' levels minus trans-global transportation costs for the finished product. Products produced under Chinese licence around the world will be priced to take into account the real financial and political costs of strategically locating embedded local trade-management structures within all nations of the world. Local wage level will reflect these structural controls.
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Gibberish sadly. Depnds on the licence agreements, depends of whether the situation in China remains the same as it is now (an astonishing assumption, politcally and socially.



If Britain wishes to produce, it will be this wage-level. As Chinese benchmark wages may be high, UK manufacturing wages should allow for an adequate quality of life - but we may have to go through half a century of poverty-through-decline before we get there.

4. At 2:00pm on 25 Nov 2010, GeoffWard wrote:

We have been for some years now in the biggest war the world has ever experienced.
I think most people have realised by now that the Chinese have been waging the war for world domination through the Arts of Sun Tzu - they have had 2,600 years to hone their skills:"
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Not doing very well then are they. Taking 2,600 years, they want to get a move on.

Here's a tip. Sun Tzu's geenrally vacuous pseudo philosophical ramblings can be applied to everything, like Nostradamus's prophecies.

Best to see them as literary peices only.
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1.Laying Plans/The Calculations explores the five fundamental factors (the Way, seasons, terrain, leadership, and management) and seven elements that define a successful outcome. By thinking, assessing and comparing these points you can calculate a victory, deviation from them will ensure failure. Remember that war is a very grave matter of state.
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Yes very valauble. War is a serious matter. That's in case anyone thought it was a drag act.

And planning, yes good to plan a war. Again very useful.
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2.Waging War/The Challenge explains how to understand the economy of war and how success requires making the winning play, which in turn, requires limiting the cost of competition and conflict.
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Again very useful. Success requires a winning play. Not a losing one then?

This is Monty Python stuff
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3.Attack by Stratagem/The Plan of Attack defines the source of strength as unity, not size, and the five ingredients that you need to succeed in any war. In order of importance: Attack, Strategy, Alliances, Army, lastly Cities.
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Yeah you do need an army if you are going to attack another army. Feathers are no good at all.

Strategy, allainces, yes these are startling revelations. No one has thoght of this before.

Unity, not size. Hmmm. Unless your army consists of you and the enemy of 500. Size matters a bit then eh.
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4.Tactical Dispositions/Positioning explains the importance of defending existing positions until you can advance them and how you must recognize opportunities, not try to create them.
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Yes if you are not going to attack its a good idea to defend, that's in case you thought of organising a massive barn dance.

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ese strategies (here adapted via Wiki.) have frequently been translated into tomes on business strategies based on (eg) the principle that
"...... one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful."
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Yea> In CHinese Sun Tzu might have merit as literature but otherwise his so called "advice" is a lot of obvious wind.

Generals before Sun Tzu was read in the West (amateurs like Alexander, Caesar, Napoleon for example) did not really have to be told that war is serious and that knowing your opponent is good idea.

Re: The world through Chinese eyes

[Sigh, I suppose that having the last week without 'the accursed one' (Simon21) was about as much as one could hope for... sighs again. And I suppose there are some amongst us that benefit from his erudition and insight.]

I post a few ‘western’ books on business and economic strategies based on the principles espoused (and trust that the accursed one reads them before further erudite comment):
• Sunzi; Michaelson, Gerald. "Sun Tzu: The Art of War for Managers; 50 Strategic Rules." Avon, MA: OH:Adams Media, 2001
• McNeilly, Mark. "Sun Tzu and the Art of Business: Six Strategic Principles for Managers. New York:Oxford University Press, 1996.
• Krause, Donald G. "The Art of War for Executives: Ancient Knowledge for Today's Business Professional." New York: Berkley Publishing Group, 1995. (A fun read)

From a western point of view, no Western leaders-of-industry, -commerce and -governance can be unaware of the difference in paradigm when dealing with China - seminars on the topic are de rigeur. Nor can they claim that they were unaware of the positive-feedback they were foisting on the world economy when they started the process of placing their productions ‘in the mouth of the tiger’...
After just a short while the positive-feedback kicks in and the process takes off in
...accelerating,
......non-reversible,
..............inevitability.

The recent G20 has been a major battle in the war - it will be some time before we find out if the victories have been tactical or strategic, and who won. But Sun Tzu tells us that deception will be necessary to seize the enemy without open warfare, so the outcomes we see may not be the outcomes of reality.

We need to waken up to the inevitability that China, is a leading world economy, and projections are that it will soon take over the US (if it hasn't already done so). I believe, quote me if im wrong, approx 25% of the worlds population live in China, this is the most widespread language, and they are building on a scale, larger than any other nation, growing at an unexpediated rate.

An aspect that hasn't been raised, is that China, despite its technological advances, through the Maglev Train, other infrastructure etc still relies heavily on Coal for energy. Despite advances in recapturing some of the CO2 and improved filters etc, it remains the most environmentally 'dirty' form of power generation.

See

Therefore, it should be acknowledged, before China can be seen as a leading contender within the economic states, that their society/ way of life is severely based on a diminishing energy reserve, and as such their future may be untenable. 50 years from now, the future is likely to be substantially different then it is today, and only those nations able to adapt and respond quickly to change, being resilient will succeed.

10. At 4:19pm on 25 Nov 2010, GeoffWard wrote:

Re: The world through Chinese eyes

[Sigh, I suppose that having the last week without 'the accursed one' (Simon21) was about as much as one could hope for... sighs again. And I suppose there are some amongst us that benefit from his erudition and insight.]
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As opposed to your pomposity and lack of knowledge
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I post a few ‘western’ books on business and economic strategies based on the principles espoused (and trust that the accursed one reads them before further erudite comment):
• Sunzi; Michaelson, Gerald. "Sun Tzu: The Art of War for Managers; 50 Strategic Rules." Avon, MA: OH:Adams Media, 2001
• McNeilly, Mark. "Sun Tzu and the Art of Business: Six Strategic Principles for Managers. New York:Oxford University Press, 1996.
• Krause, Donald G. "The Art of War for Executives: Ancient Knowledge for Today's Business Professional." New York: Berkley Publishing Group, 1995. (A fun read)

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Erudite - business books? US business books?

Let me recomend a few real books with real insight:

Arrian's Life of Alexander

Polybius's account of the Punic Wars

Caesar's Gallic Wars

Napoleon's Maxims

A good "life" of Andrew Jackson.

You may get business insights from these texts, you will certainly learn more about war than Sun Tzu's ramblings.
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From a western point of view, no Western leaders-of-industry, -commerce and -governance can be unaware of the difference in paradigm when dealing with China - seminars on the topic are de rigeur. Nor can they claim that they were unaware of the positive-feedback they were foisting on the world economy when they started the process of placing their productions ‘in the mouth of the tiger’...
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This seems to be cumberous way of saying don't trust the Chinese - wow


In business blind trust in others is never good

The West took several decades to come to terms with modern China before reluctantly conceding it a place in the global economic (W.T.O.)& other forums (the UN). Now the West wants China to start behaving on terms of its choice. It is clear China will choose its own time & preferred role. Meanwhile the West must wake up to the fact that it can no longer impose the Opium Wars or any other preferred outcome on China in the guise of modernisation.

China has been unwilling to make or find friends, because if it makes USA and it's western allies as her friends, it would no need of any enemy of her.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

Nothing succeeds like success.This is true of China to-day.China has not complied with US request to allow yuan to rise against dollar.Obviously China is not willing to allow a free float of its currency either.Possibly China thinks that it is through more and more surplus balances of payments with the United States and the European Union that maximum growth can be achieved.It does not take note of possible currency wars and trade wars against it either.And it is not going to take any measures that would reduce its exports in any manner. Its aim is to become the world's number one economy as soon as possible.

It is possible that China's biggest trade partners like the United States, Canada, Japan and the European Union may eventually retaliate and resort to countervailing duties and anti-dumping measures.
Although China is practically a super power now, it is not yet willing to meet a super power's political obligations.It has not taken any step to dissuade North Korea from its military attacks against South Korea.Nor has it admonished the military regime in Myanmar to value public opinion.Perhaps China wants the free world to march behind communism.It will be too much for it to expect.Neither Nikita Khrushchev nor Mao Zedong could translate such dreams into reality. Nor can the present leaders in China.

16. Ahsan Sarkar wrote:
"...Obviously China is not willing to allow a free float of its currency either.Possibly China thinks that it is through more and more surplus balances of payments with the United States and the European Union that maximum growth can be achieved.It does not take note of possible currency wars and trade wars against it either.And it is not going to take any measures that would reduce its exports in any manner. Its aim is to become the world's number one economy as soon as possible...."
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It is highly probable that the new world order of trade dispositions is already beyond the 'tipping point'.
This being the case, the energy needed (entropy) to return to the previous world order of trade dispositions is much, much greater than the Western world can deploy.
Thus, any 'change' must be to a newer world order of trade dispositions. What this might be is up for grabs, but the past is past.

I can't see the justification for the cost of sending Robin Lustig and no doubt a few others to Beijing. The Ö÷²¥´óÐã has a staff of competent journalists already there. This opportunity to add to their credibility by asking them to host the discussion was lost, and the Chinese will note how the Ö÷²¥´óÐã 'do things'...send over someone because the resident correspondents seemingly not able to do it.
Also, why is the licence payer paying twice? The Ö÷²¥´óÐã has staff in these locations, so why send out London-based presenters to do their job for them?