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Welsh Assembly election

Election 07 graphic

"Thank you for the ... statistics".

  • Betsan Powys
  • 6 Apr 07, 09:44 AM

Nice one ITV Wales. Do I wish the poll had been ours? Yes of course I do. But until people far more important than I am agree that polling in Wales isn't only justified but part of the service we are here to give the public, it won't happen. So keep hassling.

Had Rhodri Morgan already seen the predicted 25 seats when he said he'd retire if Labour did really badly? Would he have said it at all unless he feels in his gut that they won't do really badly?

Rhodri M talks of sensing the mood by the number of people who cross the road to avoid him. Is it happening this time round? No - says the man himself. Mind you one of his biggest fans tells me that out in Blaenau Gwent last year there were only two responses to the boss on the doorstep. It was either "Come here love, the First Minister's come to see us" or "Rhodri, good to see you!".

They still lost and lost badly.

Up in Scotland, where Jack McConnell really does know what meltdown in the polls looks like, how do they view our man?

This is George Kerevan in The Scotsman yesterday

"Rhodri Morgan is a charismatic figure ... He is fun at a time when Scottish politics has become so very strait-laced ... His latest bon mot was to suggest that global warming would do wonders for Welsh tourism. But wily Mr Morgan is teasing us. His man-of-the-people act hides the fact that he has earned degrees from both Oxford and Harvard .... I strongly suspect Rhodri Morgan will still be in power after 3 May."

One man's clown prince of Wales ...

Comments   Post your comment

  • 1.
  • At 12:23 PM on 06 Apr 2007,
  • Daran wrote:

National polls are illustrative (and thank goodness some people are doing them - no offence intended!) Nevertheless, I sense that local swings and roundabouts are going to be far more important than any national poll.

As I've just blogged elsewhere, this all doesn't "feel" quite right. For example, the poll showed the seeming collapse of the independent/other vote on the second ballot. In 2003 11.8% of the electorate cast their vote in this way, but last night's poll showed just 5% voting like that. This is really quite surprising bearing in mind recent trends to "unconventional" voting, and would demonstrate a return to "traditional" voting patterns at a time when the opposite seems to have been true in other elections. Your colleagues who are convinced of the power of the "independent vote" for 2007 will surely be quite surprised by this poll.

I'm glad to see you are getting more comfortable, here, Betsan.

You sound great on TV, and it's important to bring your same style to this forum, in our mutually-informed, surreal-multi-platform media world, no?

Pob luc a Pasg hapus i ti!

  • 3.
  • At 12:41 AM on 07 Apr 2007,
  • Manjit wrote:

Are Labour really doing that badly? I'm no expert on Welsh politics, but looking at the raw figures of the poll one would expect the Tories to be doing much better. A point made on the 'Political Betting' blog:

'Should the Tories be doing much better in Wales':

  • 4.
  • At 11:35 PM on 10 Apr 2007,
  • BlooToon wrote:

Hate to burst any bubbles here but for those unaware of the position of the Scotsman and Mr Kerevan they are on the extreme of establishment supporters and rabidly anti-nationalist.

How remarkably strait-laced is Scottish politics when we see poll after poll showing a substantial swing from the party(ies) of power and 10 of the last 11 showing (increasing) leads for the Nationalists.

Perhaps Mr kerevan hopes to goad McConnell into showing his charismatic side, unfortunately both his faces are equally unbecoming.

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