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Honest Ken

  • Betsan Powys
  • 1 May 07, 11:37 AM

What's Labour fighting for at this election?

A majority.

Or if you're Kenneth Skates, top of the Labour list in North Wales (or the north of the principality as the New Statesman have it in their story ) the forecast is more like "a fall to 27 (down 2) whereas the Tories will gain a handful".

We know this because that's what he wrote in his posting on the New Statesman's Election blog.

Labour officials weren't happy. Their lead candidate in North Wales asked if his comment could be removed. Instead they made it headline news.

If he's right - Labour lose a couple of seats to the Tories or anyone else in North Wales then we should be seeing Kenneth Skates AM in Cardiff Bay. And if it turns out he's that good at predicting results and making waves, he'll be very welcome.

Two more thoughts: BNP. UKIP. I met more than a few of their voters in Aberdare yesterday. A few weren't sure who they voting for - that national party, the B something, or Dai Llewellyn's lot. The same kind of news comes from North Wales. If the cross goes in the right box, could there be enough support - somewhere around 12,000 based on past figures - to grab a list seat this time?

And perspective. A producer's Dad said she was doing great work, before asking her "When do we get the real news back?"

Comments   Post your comment

Didn't realise we were all avidly checking the new statesman website all of a sudden:)

  • 2.
  • At 01:39 PM on 01 May 2007,
  • Rich wrote:

Interesting to see the media inflating the BNP's election chances yet again. On what do you base your comments Bethan? - 'meeting more than a few of their voters in Aberdare'. Hardly scientific polling research from a Political Editor.

Hardly put forward as scientific polling research was it Rich?

For what it's worth some half a dozen candidates have now mentioned to me that immigration is raised on the doorstep more often than they would have thought and that they believe the BNP - since you refer to them - will do well in pockets. Pockets can add up. Noticing and inflating are two entirely different things.

  • 4.
  • At 02:34 PM on 01 May 2007,
  • JohnCymro wrote:

It's absurd that Dafydd Wigley is only second on Plaid's regional NW list.

Janet Ryder's performance has been mediocre. Dafydd is in another class. Not just on personality and celebrity ,BUT ON ABILITY.

I wonder if Janet has considered putting her party first, and.....

  • 5.
  • At 04:33 PM on 01 May 2007,
  • Kerensky wrote:

It will be interesting to see how many votes the BNP get on the list. The voters you met in the Cynon valley are sadly not isolated extremist.The BNP have been very clever in targeting the fears of many voters even if those fears are not supporrted by the facts. If they do well then it should act as a wake up call for all the main stream parties particularly the Labour party who have taken the working class vote for granted for far too long. Having a leaflet delivered by the local postman is no subsitute for actually listening to the concerns of voters and re-engaging the electorate in the political process.

  • 6.
  • At 09:32 PM on 01 May 2007,
  • Alun Pugh AM wrote:

Here is some REAL NEWS. If you visit my blog there is a picture of Rhodri Morgan with me on Rhos Prom today meeting local residents. Nothing unusual in a party leader giving a candidate a hand in a tight marginal seat. It happens all the time and is not particularly newsworthy. On a good day it might get into the local paper. But when a party leader drives right through a marginal constituency without stopping for the five minutes it takes for a photo op. THAT is REAL NEWS. So David Cameron's avoiding of Darren Millar and his refusal to pose for pictures with their Clwyd West candidate even in Llandudno is a story. Mr Millar is not so much out in the cold but in the deep freeze after his "homosexuals are sinners" performance. I believe that Mr Cameron is entirely genuine in his attempt to root out homophobes in the Tory Party and he will have been advised that this stuff is poison, not just for the Assembly elections but for his entire strategy to "normalise" the Tories. Good advice that. Why wasn't he asked the simple question "Not keen on visiting Clwyd West them Mr C."

  • 7.
  • At 11:32 PM on 01 May 2007,
  • Huw wrote:

If talking to the people on the streets is not a accurate snapshot of political views,I'm not sure what is. Perhaps pollsters have put too much'science' into their work and not enough footslogging. I'm afraid the BNP do get support from some quarters, and its the media's right and duty to observe and comment.
Its absurd that Dafydd Wigley, so esteemed a statesman that Gareth Thomas is openly prepared to say he'd vote for him, is shunted out by another candidate, simply because she's a woman.
I suspect that political correctness like this is precisely the fuel of the BNP's campaign.

JohnCymro: I don't think Janet has been too bad an AM, but did also wonder why Dafydd wasn't top--I don't know what the PC selection process is. On a related point, was I the only who got the impression from their regional leaflet that they were implying Dafydd was their lead candidate. (His blurb was under a headline saying something like "First for your second vote"; maybe it was just the way I read it.)

  • 9.
  • At 12:56 PM on 02 May 2007,
  • Arfon Jones wrote:

To have someone unknown as Kenneth Skates top of Labour's regional list with a good chance of being elected to the Senedd if both Alun Pugh and Denise Idris Jones loses is a ridiculous state of affairs. and its all down to Peter Hain legislating to prevent candidates standing in both region and constituences... so what do we get...second rate AM's elected by default...talk about the Labour party in Wales 'shooting itself in the foot'!

  • 10.
  • At 05:06 PM on 02 May 2007,
  • wrote:

I think it's a bit harsh to call Ken Skates "second rate" - his blog is one of the most interesting on the Labour side, and he's certainly spoken his mind this week! I'd wait to see (1) if he ends up getting in and (2) what he actually does if elected before being so harsh.

Most AMs are unknown when first elected, by whatever system. It only becomes a problem if they remain unknown four years later.

  • 11.
  • At 05:31 PM on 02 May 2007,
  • Andrea wrote:

"I don't think Janet has been too bad an AM, but did also wonder why Dafydd wasn't top--I don't know what the PC selection process is"

Plaid rules state that a woman should be in first place in every regional list. Hence Janet Ryder being first. She just needed to be the most voted woman in the selection contest to get first place
In In South Wales West happened the same thing with Bethan Jenkins getting less votes than Dai Lloyd but still getting first place because she's a woman

  • 12.
  • At 07:30 PM on 02 May 2007,
  • Dafydd wrote:

If there are people actually going to vote UKIP, or BNP its proof positive that at least some of the population have been badly affected by the lead in petrol!!!

  • 13.
  • At 10:57 PM on 03 May 2007,
  • Janice Livings wrote:

Well I just came back from voting BNP and am hoping they get maybe one person in. This may force some of you to accept that the neither of the main parties are addresing the legitimate worries of many people of Wales.

  • 14.
  • At 11:22 PM on 03 May 2007,
  • Sarah Griffiths wrote:

I don't have any political statement to make,I know who I wanted to vote for and did so - which is more than most people probably did.
My husband said he wouldn't have voted if I hadn't made him,however he thinks all politicians are corrupt!
I can't comment on why people chose not to vote,everyone has their reasons.
What I can comment on is the fact that we are lucky to live in a democracy where we are able to vote and vote fairly.So many people throughout the world are unable to do so.

  • 15.
  • At 11:38 PM on 03 May 2007,
  • Emyr in Barry wrote:

Low turnout is always a topic - although it does sound positive at this early stage - but remebering that people fought long and hard for the right for everyone to vote do the MPs think that voting should be made compulsory, made law?

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