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What's really happening to Arctic ice?

Paul Hudson

There’s been a sharp gain in Arctic sea ice since the summer record minimum in September 2012, which Ìýhas claimed to be the biggest recovery on satellite record.

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But a team team of scientists led by University College London there was a substantial decline in ice volume during the previous two winters.

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The analysis uses data from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Cryosat satellite, using its high resolution radar altimeter.

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This confirms reports that alongside the decline in the spatial extent of ice which has been widely reported using satellite data since 1979, there is crucially much less multi-year (year-round) ice.

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This is important, since multi-year ice is older and hence thicker and slower to melt in summer.

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First year ice, which is forming now in the Arctic following the record ice-loss this summer, is thinner and much more prone to melting.

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Nevertheless it’s been an impressive recovery in Arctic sea ice since last summer.

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It’s important to us here in the UK because scientists believe what’s happening in the Arctic may have a direct impact on our summer climate.

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According to research at Sheffield University, which I wrote about , the decrease in Arctic ice extent may be to blame for our run of poor summers – and if it continues, cool wet summers may be something we have to get used to.

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Only time will tell whether the recovery in sea ice extent so far this winter is the start of a new trend, or, as most scientists believe, just one of the many false dawns when it comes to talk of a proper meaningful recovery in Arctic sea ice.

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Follow me on twitter @Hudsonweather

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