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Mixed summer weather to continue after disappointing July
After a disappointing July, there's little chance of a significant improvement in the coming days.
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Mixed summer weather to continue after disappointing July
There seems little chance of a significant improvement to our weather through the early part of August, following a generally poor July across the country.
Much of West and North Yorkshire was cool and wet, with Bradford recording 147% of its average rainfall with below average temperatures.
More southern and eastern areas fared a little better, with Lincolnshire experiencing weather conditions closer to normal.
The month started with so much promise, with Heathrow recording 36.7C on the 1st, establishing a new July UK record.
It was one of many new July records across the country, with no fewer than four established in our region, most notably Sheffield, with data back to 1882.
But after the record heat of the 1st, records were set for the cold on the morning of the 31st July, including Exeter airport in Devon and Benson in Oxfordshire.
Closer to home, the mercury fell to 3.5C at Topcliffe, which is a new record, although the data set at this North Yorkshire observing site is short.
The coming days will be again dominated by low pressure, with a prevailing west to southwest wind.
And with the North Atlantic colder than average, as long as the wind remains in this direction, the鈥�
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July temperature records tumble across the country
The first hot spell of summer has turned out to be a record breaker, with numerous stations across the country setting new records.
Heathrow airport this afternoon recorded 36.7C (98F), a new UK record for July, beating the previous record of 36.5C set in Wisley in 2006.
Local records have tumbled too – with the mercury rising to 34.3C (93F) at Cranwell in South Lincolnshire – smashing the previous record of 32.8C set in 1959.
So far this afternoon Waddington (32.8C), Coningsby (33.3C) and Cranwell in Lincolnshire have all broken their July records.
In Yorkshire, a new record has been set in Sheffield, with 33C (91F) - beating the previous record of 31.8C set in 1941. Sheffield's weather observations go all the way back to 1882, so this is a notable new record.
Relief is at hand though, with much fresher – but still warm - conditions expected on Thursday with an ongoing risk of a thunderstorm.
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First hot spell of summer next week
A dramatic change in the weather is expected next week, with very warm air over the continent spreading northwards across the UK.
Temperatures across the south of France and parts of Spain may reach 40C or more, next week, with 30C plus likely across southern Britain.
In our region, although some northern and western parts of Yorkshire may see a little rain for a time on Tuesday, temperatures could easily reach 27C.
In fact, the latest American model suggests 31C across parts of South Yorkshire and Lincolnshire on Wednesday.
There is uncertainty about how long the hot spell will last, and there’s always the risk of thunderstorms.
But it will be a huge change after what was a poor May and decidedly average June.
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Summer on its way after cool and wet May
May has turned out to be a real let down, following the glorious April which was the sunniest on record across the UK.
Provisional figures for Yorkshire show it was much wetter than normal, but with a marked contrast temperature-wise from west to east, with mean temperatures in the east not actually far from the seasonal average.
And June has begun with very unseasonable weather conditions.
The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for strong winds, with gusts to 50mph in exposed locations and along the coast, together with some heavy rain tonight.
But a long-awaited respite is expected鈥�
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Does El Nino mean a harsh UK winter ahead?
In March, observations in the Pacific confirmed that a weak El Nino event was upon us, with scientists now believing that there is a 70% chance that the phenomena will last through summer, and a 60% chance that it will last through autumn.
El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world.
During previous El Nino events, much wetter winters have occurred in Southwest USA.
For California, the developing El Nino will therefore be welcome news following a chronic lack of rainfall.
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Tour de Yorkshire forecast
According to Met Office provisional statistics, April was the 5th sunniest on record across the UK.
It was also much drier than normal, with above average temperatures too.
So it’s a shame that the weather has turned much more unsettled, just in time for the inaugural Tour de Yorkshire cycle race.
If the organisers had taken a glance at historical weather conditions for early May then they might have thought again about choosing this bank holiday weekend, such is its track record for cool and unsettled weather.
That said, only Sunday morning looks poor this weekend, so it could have been a鈥�
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Be wary of warm and sunny Aprils
The glorious weather that has been with us for much of April is about to end this weekend.
Even though next week will be cooler and more unsettled, April is bound to turn out a warm, dry and sunny month when the monthly statistics are released by the Met Office, with the mean CET (Central England Temperature) currently running 2 degrees Celsius above normal for the month so far.
The fine weather comes at a time when tabloid headline writers have been having a field day, with predictions that the fine weather is the start of a spring and summer heatwave.
It reminded me of the link between the鈥�
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Countdown to Friday's partial solar eclipse
On Friday morning, a partial solar eclipse will be visible across our region for the first time since August 1999.
Back then I was filming with Look North in Scarborough.
Conditions were perfect, with hardly a cloud in the sky shortly after sunrise, and the view from the sea front was spectacular.
This time, however, there’s likely to be a lot of cloud in many areas.
That said, there may be scope for cloud breaks especially in eastern areas to the lee of high ground.
The time for maximum coverage of the sun by the moon is 9.33am, with up to 90% of the sun obscured.
I’ll be returning to鈥�
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Arctic and Antarctica sea ice extent are poles apart
The long term decline in Arctic sea ice is continuing, with satellite data showing the third lowest February ice extent, in records which began in 1979.
The Arctic ice maximum usually happens towards the end of March, although last year there was a large increase in Arctic sea ice, so a new record is by no means certain.
The continued declining trend in Arctic sea ice has been well forecast by climate models, something that can’t be said at the other end of the planet.
Last month, Antarctica sea ice reached its annual minimum, which turned out to be the fourth highest summer minimum extent on鈥�
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A taste of spring is just around the corner
According to provisional Met Office figures, winter has turned out to be exceptionally sunny, with the UK enjoying its sunniest winter since records began in 1929.
And contrary to the many hysterical headlines of extreme cold, winter temperatures were close to normal, with rainfall just slightly above normal across the UK.
That’s a big improvement on last winter which was the wettest on record.
March has certainly come in like a lion, with strong winds and a risk of sleet and snow showers for many in the next 24 hours.
But by the weekend, there’s a real prospect of spring-like conditions,鈥�