Latest on El nino, Arctic ice and Volcanoes!
Paul Hudson
El Nino
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This year I鈥檝e written regularly about the possibility of an El Nino event, the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific.
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The implications of such an event on our climate are felt around the world,
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But over the last few months talk of a 鈥榮uper El Nino鈥� similar to the one which propelled global temperatures to a record high in 1998, have receded.
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And where-as back in June, the ECMWF model put the probability of an El Nino at a bullish 90%, the latest guidance from NOAA is for a 60-65% chance of an El Nino developing through autumn and winter, with the majority of models now only expecting a weak event.
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That said, with global temperatures currently at elevated levels, even a weak El Nino could make 2014 or more likely 2015 the hottest year on record globally.
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ARCTIC ICE
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According to the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Arctic ice has reached its summer minimum this year, having dropped to just over 5 million square kilometres.
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Although this is some way above the record summer ice minimum set in 2012 (3.41 million kilometres), it still represents the 6th lowest ice extent in the Arctic since satellite data became available in 1979.
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THE WEATHER SHOW
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On this weekend鈥檚 show, I discuss the recent volcanic activity in Iceland with scientists from Leeds University, and how such eruptions affect the climate and environment.
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I discover that a major eruption is long overdue, with potentially huge implications across the world.
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You can listen on the iplayer using
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The week's weather show听will be听uploaded听on Sunday.
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