- Jamie Coomarasamy
- 16 Oct 06, 10:38 PM
A friend of mine who first covered Virginia politics more years ago than he'd care to remember refers to six-term as a "walking political encyclopaedia". But when I hooked up with him at the weekend, he was more like a walking lollipop-and-dog-biscuit distributor.
He - or at least, his minions - had bags of both as he toured the , one of those made-for-campaign-season local fairs where candidates shake so many hands that you half expect the less experienced ones to begin giving the dog biscuits to the children and the lollipops (or "suckers", as they're known in these parts) to the… well, you get the point.
Thankfully, Congressman Davis stuck to the "four legs cookie, two legs lolly" rule, as you'd expect from a seasoned campaigner who successfully ran the Republicans' House election effort in 2000 and 2002. That experience has made him very sensitive to the national mood - and he knows the current one isn't good for his party.
Although his Northern Virginia district hasn't made it onto the growing "endangered" list, he predicts that the Republicans could lose as many as 30 House seats next month - double the number the Democrats need to get a majority.
Yes, he reminds you that at this point six years ago, the New York Times was (incorrectly) predicting a Democratic congressional victory, but he also acknowledges that an unpopular president and an unpopular war have made the atmosphere particularly "ugly" for Republicans this time around.
"I'm not a pessimist," he says, "I'm a realist."
There's a lot of realism in Republican circles these days. Fred Barnes - executive editor of that publication at the intellectual heart of conservatism, The Weekly Standard - predicts a "GOP debacle" in .
Scaremongering to get out the vote or genuine despair? The latter, I'd say. And while there's still hopeful Republican talk of an "October Surprise" - that semi-mythical, election-changing event - at this point, it would be a pretty big surprise if the Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives.
Jamie Coomarasamy is a Washington correspondent for Ö÷²¥´óÐã News.
- Justin Webb
- 16 Oct 06, 08:33 PM
I have not seen this list - full disclosure here on the lack of first-hand reporting - but a couple of Republican politicos I have talked to have mentioned an internal document which suggests that the has now given up on 12 of the in-play midterm congressional seats. (Given that you have enough interest to read this blog you probably already know that 15 losses would result in a Democratic party victory next month.)
Apparently the name of the candidate in each "lost" seat has a G next to it - as in Gone. Of course it isn't that they want to bin these fine men and women - they just the advertising necessary to keep them in play. In other words, this is an economic rather than a political decision.
How much fairer is the where, with Stalinist attention to detail, district (constituency) spending is limited to virtually nothing, local TV advertising is banned (yes banned!) and politics is considered a better determinant of the outcome than economics. Not freer - fairer!
Justin Webb is the Ö÷²¥´óÐã's chief North America radio correspondent.
- Matt Frei
- 16 Oct 06, 03:36 PM
Arnold Schwarzenegger has been rebooted by his advisers with results that should make other Republicans blush with envy. Six months ago it looked as if the Terminator would indeed terminate at the gubernatorial elections this November. He was in the mid 30s in the approval poll ratings.
Now he has soared back into the upper 50s. In the musty library of the I sat down with his key campaign guru Matthew Dowd to discuss the reversal of fortune. Two years ago the affable Mr Dowd helped to get George W Bush re-elected. Then it was all about mobilising the Christian right-wing base of the Grand Old Party and despatching them on a crusade to the polling booths.
Now the new mantra is to rediscover the fuzzy centre. "Americans hate this partisan bitterness, they hate extremes", Mr Dowd - who looks more like a pop producer than a political consultant and is also advising Sen John McCain - told me. "They feel more comfortable with leadership from the centre".
This is especially true in California, where Arnie has realised that he can't govern without the support of the majority voting block, which happens to be Democratic. Hence a $37bn grant for education, roads and other infrastructure projects, a state grant to conduct stem cell research and Kyoto-style caps on greenhouse gas emissions, which have impressed voters in California and upset GOP party hacks back in Washington.
"I always knew Arnie was a closet Democrat", one of them told me. "Look, he's married to - a Kennedy - and he hired Susan Kennedy - no relation but a Democrat - to be his chief of staff."
If it were a country, California would have the world's sixth-biggest economy. So if Green is the new Red - I'm talking about the colour codes of American politics of course, where, somewhat confusingly for Brits, Red is the colour of the right - then Washington better take heed.
But it's not just a few hand-picked centrist policies that are making a difference. Like dozens of other Republican candidates, he has kept his distance from an increasingly toxic president. Two years ago he appeared on the stump for W in Ohio. Recently when Mr Bush was on a visit to California, Arnie shunned the commander-in-chief for a meeting with the other George making the headlines - George Clooney.
The governator has also learned to say the hardest word. He has shown contrition for his mistakes and it has worked. Mister Universe has become a "girly man", and much of touchy-feely California is impressed. As Mr Dowd put it to me with a twinkle of irony: "My recipe for success: I would get a politician to make one big mistake a week and then apologise for it."
Matt Frei is the Ö÷²¥´óÐã's senior North America TV correspondent.
- The Reporters
- 16 Oct 06, 03:14 PM
Los Angeles Times: The threat that one of the Senate's most socially conservative Republicans may lose his seat has turned into "four-alarm fire for conservatives".
New York Times: Meanwhile, Republicans have all but given up on another embattled senator and are shifting money and energy elsewhere.
Washington Times: A hard-line immigration control group has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars supporting candidates, much of it through private companies with ties to a well-known conservative activist.
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