Suckers in Virginia
- 16 Oct 06, 10:38 PM
A friend of mine who first covered Virginia politics more years ago than he'd care to remember refers to six-term as a "walking political encyclopaedia". But when I hooked up with him at the weekend, he was more like a walking lollipop-and-dog-biscuit distributor.
He - or at least, his minions - had bags of both as he toured the , one of those made-for-campaign-season local fairs where candidates shake so many hands that you half expect the less experienced ones to begin giving the dog biscuits to the children and the lollipops (or "suckers", as they're known in these parts) to the… well, you get the point.
Thankfully, Congressman Davis stuck to the "four legs cookie, two legs lolly" rule, as you'd expect from a seasoned campaigner who successfully ran the Republicans' House election effort in 2000 and 2002. That experience has made him very sensitive to the national mood - and he knows the current one isn't good for his party.
Although his Northern Virginia district hasn't made it onto the growing "endangered" list, he predicts that the Republicans could lose as many as 30 House seats next month - double the number the Democrats need to get a majority.
Yes, he reminds you that at this point six years ago, the New York Times was (incorrectly) predicting a Democratic congressional victory, but he also acknowledges that an unpopular president and an unpopular war have made the atmosphere particularly "ugly" for Republicans this time around.
"I'm not a pessimist," he says, "I'm a realist."
There's a lot of realism in Republican circles these days. Fred Barnes - executive editor of that publication at the intellectual heart of conservatism, The Weekly Standard - predicts a "GOP debacle" in .
Scaremongering to get out the vote or genuine despair? The latter, I'd say. And while there's still hopeful Republican talk of an "October Surprise" - that semi-mythical, election-changing event - at this point, it would be a pretty big surprise if the Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives.
Jamie Coomarasamy is a Washington correspondent for Ö÷²¥´óÐã News.
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The Democrats are attempting to exploit the discontent with the war in Iraq, but they have yet to present their plan for prosecuting it, as well as the war on terror. I realize "cut and run" is a very well-worn phrase, but that appears to be their policy on Iraq. As for other matters, the Democrats are repeating the same "I hate Bush" strategy of 2004, when they presented no viable policy alternatives of their own. And the Democrats are about to commit the same error that the Republicans made in 1998 (in their efforts to exploit the Foley scandal), when the Republicans thought they could exploit the Monica Lewinsky affair to their advantage in the mid-term elections, and lost some House seats. I just do not see voters flocking to the Democrats as some are predicting. The late Democratic House Speaker, Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill once famously stated that "All Politics is Local", and I think that will hold true in this mid-term. The Republicans will hold the House, albeit with a reduced majority, and this will be followed by a much-needed shakeup in the House Republican leadership, who appear to have forgotten the "Contract with America", and the reason Americans put them in control in the 1994 mid-terms.
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*Elephant breaks the vase*
Donkey: You broke the vase!
Elephant: And what's your plan to fix it?
Donkey: I don't think it can be fixed at this point.
Elephant: Ha! Defeatist! No plan whatsoever!
I hope my point is not lost.
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Clearly the Republicans are going to suffer losses next month. But inflating expectations means that any Democratic victory not in line with those inflated expectations can almost be portrayed as a defeat. Picture the "Democratic gains not as large as expected" headlines the day after polling day. In the absence of any prospect of a victory, the Republicans would probably take that.
As you say, Congressman Davis is an experienced politician, and if he says his party's going to lose big, its not because he's started campaigning for the Democrats
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Of course it is in the Republicans' interests to talk up the possibility of huge losses in November. When the results are in and they have lost only 10 seats they can point to the 30-seat-loss predictions and claim that their record has been endorsed by the electorate.
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Dear Mr. Coomaraswamy,
Your attempts to give us a fair assessment of " Republican losses " is short of being ludicrous. Never mind it is biased because to get a fair hearing from the Ö÷²¥´óÐã about Republican politics is asking for the impossible.
For the sake of fairplay and justice, I hope you are proved wrong.
Shovan Das
New Orleans, LA
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As the Democrats are still doing this to some degree, I think it would be a good time for the Republican party to start asking themselves "What are we doing wrong?" and try to fix that.
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The Democrats are in a no win situation with Iraq. If they stay, there are few other plans available than what Bush is doing. If they pull out then the horror that will follow in Iraq will really show up the mess the US made.
And then, if there is an attack against the US after the pull out, then they will be slaughtered at the next election.
The time to make a stand against Iraq was at the beginning, before the war was approved.
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Let them eat lollipops? Throw the dog a bone? At this point it would be a pretty big surprise if the Republican Party isn't very busy coordinating larger-than-ever-scale election fraud nationwide. But this time, no one will be surprised by their November Surprise. While predictions are being made, the critical unaddressed issues remain: voter disenfranchisement and intimidation at the polls; and hackable, programmable, unverifiable voting machines without paper trails.
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"I'm not a pessimist," he says, "I'm a realist."
Me too. So let's see if we get a "real" election in America this time.
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